This was supposed to be the year the Boston Celtics assumed control of the Eastern Conference. The Celtics were coming off consecutive conference finals appearances, LeBron James was safely ensconced 3,000 miles away in Los Angeles, and Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward were returning from injuries that caused them both to miss the postseason.
Instead, what was supposed to be the deepest team in the league has sputtered to start the season, unable to find lineup combinations that maximize the breadth of talent at Brad Stevens’ disposal. Irving said the Celtics were near rock bottom, Marcus Smart said they were “playing like punks”, and an 11-10 record has Boston in sixth in the East, just two losses ahead of the ninth-place Washington Wizards.
One of the more curious developments of this year has been the play of Jaylen Brown. Brown had an excellent sophomore season, thriving in the absence of Hayward to lead Boston in net rating (plus-7.5) alongside Al Horford. The third overall pick in the 2016 draft was already showcasing the ability to be a primary wing defender. At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan, Brown was a perfect piece in the Celtics’ switching system, resulting in a 100.7 defensive rating during the 2017-18 regular season.
On offense, Brown hadn’t yet shown the capacity to be a creator, but that was less important on a team with Irving, Hayward, and Jayson Tatum. Brown made 40 percent of his threes last year, including 44 percent from the corner. He was capable of going off for big performances, like when he became the youngest Celtic ever to score 30 points in a playoff game, and seemed to be a seamless fit in what projected to be a much improved offense for Boston.
But somehow, the third-year Celtic has experienced a dramatic drop-off this season. His net rating has plummeted to negative-2.3, the worst among Boston’s rotation players, and especially damaging considering he still plays 28 minutes per game. SB Nation’s Paul Flannery wrote that Brown “has veered awkwardly between all-out aggression and looking completely lost.”
Brown’s offensive efficiency has reverted to his rookie year level. He has eschewed the Celtics team-wide problem of favoring the midrange over shots at the rim and threes, but that doesn’t mean he’s converting many of those looks.
The same Jaylen Brown who had finished in the 69th percentile among wings in points per shot attempt last year, back when he had to shoulder a larger load of the offense, is now in the 8th percentile, scoring at about the same efficiency as Markelle Fultz. Brown is shooting 40 percent from the field, 25 percent from beyond the arc, and 62 percent from the free-throw line. That all adds up to a lot of red.
Not only is Brown not shooting well, but he doesn’t really do anything else with the ball in his hands. His usage rate is identical to last season, but he is assisting less often and he never draws fouls, so the majority of Brown’s possessions are ending in missed shots.
The Celtics might be able to tolerate an offensive downturn from Brown if he were still capable of defending at an all-NBA level, but he isn’t adding additional value there. Smart, Terry Rozier, Tatum, and Hayward are all outperforming Brown on the defensive end, making it hard to justify giving Brown minutes at their expense.
Brown has missed two games this season, both Celtics wins, and his best scoring performances have all come in losses. One of those wins came against Milwaukee. The other was this Monday in New Orleans, a blowout win when Boston resembled a contender for the first time in a while, and when Smart started in place of Brown.
It was only a few months ago when Jaylen Brown would have been the primary piece of a potential Kawhi Leonard trade, or even a key part of a theoretical package for Anthony Davis. His two-way potential, highlighted by a set of strong postseason performances against Milwaukee and Philadelphia, suggested that Boston would have an embarrassment of riches on the wing for years to come. This season has worn the shine of off Brown, and though development rarely ever occurs in a linear path, it’s worth considering if he will return to the trajectory he was on last year. The player we see today is much more in line with the Brown from Cal and his first year in the NBA.
There is still plenty of time for the Celtics to assert themselves atop the Eastern Conference, and they certainly have enough talent to play much better than they have. Whether Jaylen Brown is part of that resurgence is another question.
