For most fans, the preseason is about optimism. It’s the time to believe your team can achieve the desired end result in 2017-18, whether that’s winning a championship, making the playoffs, or earning the No. 1 overall pick. This is the year they do it.
However, we all know that many teams will fall short of expectations come spring 2018 and leave fans wondering what went wrong and likely leading to some changes being made to the roster, coaching staff, or front office. Some teams, players, and coaches are going to disappoint this season, because that’s how it goes.
It might not be completely their fault, as plenty of extraneous circumstances can play a role in falling short of expectations, and sometimes expectations are simply set too high and need to be adjusted. Here, our staff will tell you what teams and players are going to come up shy of their goals this season, and which coaches are most likely to find themselves on the hot seat.
What team will disappoint and miss the playoffs this season?
Jamie Cooper: New Orleans Pelicans
Lots of good candidates for this one. Things could certainly go awry for the Sixers, especially given Joel Embiid’s injury history, but their young core of Simmons, Fultz, Saric, etc. should buttress them in the watered-down East. Then there’s the Timberwolves, whose youth movement hasn’t quite lived up to their collective expectations yet, although recently-added vets like Butler and Teague should help get them over the hump.
So I’m going with New Orleans. The early returns for the “Fire & Ice” duo haven’t been too promising, and the reality is that the Pelicans don’t have much depth beyond that. Besides overpaying Jrue Holiday, their two biggest offseason moves – Rajon Rondo and Tony Allen – are a pair of aging guards who can’t space the floor. The New Orleans experiment may not last much longer if they fail to make the playoffs, which is a distinct possibility given how loaded the Western Conference is once again.
Konata Edwards: Portland Trail Blazers
I know everyone loves that Blazers backcourt and what Jusuf Nurkic did in 20 games last season being the third scorer was impressive, but they didn’t add anything on defense in the offseason. The Blazers ranked 24th in the league in defensive rating and even if Nurkic plays more that number is likely going to hover around the same spot. In a Western Conference that saw a lot of teams get better, running it back with the same group without significant internal improvement is likely going to result in Portland watching this year’s playoffs from home.
Bill DiFilippo: New Orleans Pelicans
It feels like New Orleans is the most logical answer to this. They boast an otherworldly 1-2 punch in the front court, sure, but save for Jrue Holiday, their backcourt and wing depth is non-existent. Can this team do any kind of scoring that doesn’t come from Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins? Heck, does Cousins even last the entire season in New Orleans? While scoring against this team’s starting unit is going to be hell, I just don’t have any faith that they can spread the floor at all.
Brad Rowland: Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers finished 41-41 a year ago and got worse in the offseason. Yes, a full season of Jusuf Nurkic is bound to help in many ways but Portland also jettisoned its best shooter (Allen Crabbe) for nothing and the Western Conference improved on the whole. More than anything, the Blazers don’t even have to implode to miss the playoffs, as they would probably need a four-win bump to make the cut. A lot of people see that happening. I do not.
Robby Kalland: New Orleans Pelicans
It’s somewhat odd to say a 34-win team a year ago missing the playoffs in the NBA’s toughest conference is a disappointment, but that’s where the Pelicans are with their frontcourt of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. They’re all-in on a postseason run this year and if they fall short again, I’d expect this team and organization to look very different come next October. The Pelicans are hoping their dynamic frontcourt duo playing together for a full season can help them make the leap, but nothing we saw from these two last year screams at you that a 10-plus game jump is coming. The wing rotation is really bad, Rondo’s injury hurts their depth to start the season in the backcourt and I think it’s more likely that we see this team selling pieces at the deadline than as a playoff team out West.
What coach is most likely to get fired this season?
Jamie Cooper: Dwane Casey
Alvin Gentry was my knee-jerk reaction, given my answer above, and he’s still a pretty safe bet to get canned if the Pelicans get off to an underwhelming start. But there’s a lot more riding on the Raptors. Toronto was once again arguably the worst passing team in the league last season, despite Casey’s proclamations that he would implement a more fluid motion offense.
After re-signing Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, the organization has decided to stand pat rather than blow things up, so the onus is absolutely on Casey to make it work. But if their offense remains stagnate and they appear to be headed for another humiliating defeat in the Eastern Conference playoffs, Casey might have to seek employment elsewhere.
Brad Rowland: Nate McMillan
The Pacers might surprise this season, if only because they are in the East and have a bunch of NBA-caliber players. In the same breath, McMillan has done nothing to prove that he is helping rather than hurting things in Indiana and only has one additional season on his contract. The Pacers seemingly do everything possible to avoid rebuilding and, rather than look in the mirror to see a roster that isn’t good enough, it might be an eye toward the head coach midseason.
Konata Edwards: Alvin Gentry
The easy answer is Fred Hoiberg, but I think there’s more pressure on Gentry to turn around the Pelicans despite having a horribly misshapen roster. Yes the Pelicans have Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins but I’m not sure that’s a viable frontcourt over 82 games, and that’s before you get into the issues that the backcourt and wing rotation presents with a bunch of replacement level players beyond Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans likely have to get to the playoffs for Gentry to hold onto his job, and that’s not happening this year.
Bill DiFilippo: Earl Watson
Since taking over as the head coach of the Phoenix Suns, Earl Watson has compiled a 33-82 record in 115 games. That’s…well, I wouldn’t call it great. The Suns are a really young team, and teams tend to be more patient with coaches of younger teams, but if we get to December and there are no signs of Phoenix improving this season, Watson may be in some trouble.
Robby Kalland: Alvin Gentry
I feel like Alvin Gentry and Dell Demps are on the hot seat every season, but this year I really think it’s a make it or break it year in New Orleans and sadly I just don’t see it working out. I think too many teams in the West built better rosters this offseason and they’ll find themselves bringing up the rear of that race for eighth and this thing could get blown up in February from the top down.
What player is most likely to not live up to their new contract?
Jamie Cooper: Tim Hardaway Jr.
The poor Pelicans are all over this one as Jrue Holiday will likely not be able to meet the expectations of his enormous five-year, $126 million contract. But in their defense, the organization didn’t have much of a choice given the market.
But I’m opting to interpret this question as the “worst” signing of the offseason, which is unequivocally Tim Hardaway’s four-year, $71 million deal. As the Knicks enter a full-fledged rebuild around Kristaps Porzingis, there aren’t many expectations attached beyond facilitating his growth, but it’s more about the principle of wildly overpaying a player they were more than eager to part ways with just a couple of seasons ago.
Brad Rowland: Tim Hardaway Jr.
It’s not your fault, Tim. The Hawks were bracing for a big decision on Hardaway Jr. and the consensus was that Atlanta would be choosing to match a deal somewhere in the $11-12 million range over four years. Then, the Knicks came in and offered nearly $18 million annually, making the decision (very) easy for Atlanta. In an offseason that largely featured fiscal responsibility, it was a preposterous overpay by the Knicks and, even with the caveat that Hardaway Jr. is now a very useful player, it seems unlikely that he’ll make yet another huge leap to justify this investment.
Konata Edwards: Otto Porter Jr.
I get why they kept Porter, but giving a career 9.3 points per game scorer a four-year max deal is one that looks a lot like a future albatross of a contract if he fails to develop beyond what he currently is. Porter’s field goal percentage (52%) and three-point shooting percentage (43%) read like a guy in a contract year who’s going to hit a serious regression to the mean this season, which will dramatically hurt the Wizards’ hopes of landing one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference.
Bill DiFilippo: Otto Porter Jr.
Did you know Otto Porter ($24.77 million) will make more this season than Chris Paul ($24.59 million), C.J. McCollum ($23.96 million), or Bradley Beal ($23.77 million) this season? Porter is a very good basketball player who fills a specific role for the Wizards, but isn’t the type of guy who can take over games and win them for Washington. Seeing as how one of his teammates who can do that will make less than him this season, he seems like a good bet to be the guy who doesn’t live up to his new contract.
Robby Kalland: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the latest wing-playing graduate of Hawks University to sign a massive contract. The past two have been DeMarre Carroll and Kent Bazemore, who have each struggled mightily compared to what they got paid in free agency. Hardaway’s $71 million deal felt like an overpay when the Knicks gave it to him, and I’m always about a young man securing the bag, but New York shouldn’t be surprised when he’s not able to live up to that deal. Hardaway’s going to get buckets, of that I have no doubt, but he’s still a sub-par defender and not efficient on offense, and I see him, sadly, getting a lot of anger from Knicks fans when the team’s struggling because he was their big signing.
What rookie is most likely to disappoint that team’s fan base based off expectations from draft slot?
Jamie Cooper: Lonzo Ball
There’s so much hype around Lonzo Ball that everything he does or doesn’t do will get blown way out of proportion. Given that reality, I’ll answer this question with the crucial caveat that I’m in fact not predicting that Ball will be a disappointment this season, but rather that his circumstances will create the most likely scenario in which he could be perceived as a disappointment. The Lakers also won’t be very good again this season, which won’t help his cause.
Brad Rowland: Frank Ntilikina
The 2017 draft was a very strong one and, as a result, this is a tough call. However, the Knicks taking Ntilikina over Dennis Smith Jr. might be problematic for that fan base. Frankly, it won’t be Ntilikina’s fault, as I expect him to become a very nice NBA player. However, taking a worse prospect at the same position never goes over well and that helps to shade the Knicks into this choice over the likes of Chicago (Lauri Markkanen) and Portland (Zach Collins over Donovan Mitchell).
Konata Edwards: Markelle Fultz
90% of my trepidation with Fultz is that the top overall pick is currently tweaking his shooting form as we speak due to a lingering shoulder injury. If Fultz doesn’t have the jumper together, it’s hard to see him living up to expectations for the No. 1 overall pick, especially considering the Sixers lack a lot of perimeter shooters beyond J.J. Redick and Robert Covington. A guard with a suspect jumper can thrive but only with reliable floor spacers to make it work.
Bill DiFillipo: Lauri Markkanen
There may not have been a more controversial top-10 pick in the 2017 Draft than Lauri Markkanen. While he is a talented big man and showed flashes of being really, really good during EuroBasket, Markkanen is still an unfinished product as a big man. I think he’s going to end up being a fun center who can stretch the floor — imagine Kristaps Porzingis, but shorter and not as skilled and not as good of an athlete — but seeing as how he went seventh overall, there’s an expectation that he’ll contribute early and often. That will not be the case.
Robby Kalland: Frank Ntilikina
This isn’t Frank’s fault, nor is it an indictment of his abilities or potential. This is all about Knicks fans constantly gazing lustily at Dennis Smith Jr. from across the room while poor Ntilikina is standing right next to them. Any time your the player selected before a better player (at least in Year 1) at your position, there’s going to be some upset fans. I think most Knicks fans know to direct their anger at the organization and not Frank, but expect a lot of frustration coming out of New York as DSJ tears things up in Dallas, even if Ntilikina is solid out of the gate.
