The race for the most ping-pong balls in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery is going to be as hotly contested as any in recent memory. The 2017-18 season has created a stark contrast between the haves and have-nots in the NBA, and teams see this as the last opportunity before lottery reform kicks in to tank their way to a superstar.
Between the upcoming lottery reform in 2019, a top-heavy draft class, and teams seeing a pathway to relevancy otherwise blocked by the top squads in the NBA, those bottom-feeders are chasing the top pick harder than ever before. It’s not just one or two teams racing to the bottom, but upwards of eight teams all have a realistic chance at landing the No. 1 spot in the lottery.
Six squads are currently tied with 18 wins on the season (Phoenix, Atlanta, Orlando, Dallas, Sacramento, and Memphis) with Brooklyn at 19 wins and Chicago at 20. The Knicks are also potential tanking candidates now that they are without the services of star Kristaps Porzingis, but at 24 wins, they might be too far ahead to catch up, so we won’t look at them.
Brooklyn is the only team of that group without an incentive to tank as its pick belongs to Cleveland, but the rest will be trying their best to be as bad as they can. It’s important to remember players don’t tank when on the court and coaches, in general, won’t ever admit to doing anything on the court to try to actively lose games.
However, while it used to be assumed tanking was more of a front office, roster construction deal that handcuffed coaches and would sometimes lead to veterans being shut down in the name of “developing young players,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst explained how, in today’s game, certain lineups may be dictated based off of analytics passed on to coaches explaining which lineups have the worst results when playing together.
Are we seeing a new way to tank in the @NBA? pic.twitter.com/dQTsyuajqe
— Outside the Lines (@OTLonESPN) February 26, 2018
This isn’t necessarily a major surprise, but it does shine a light on one way teams can indeed facilitate tanking in a more active way than just building a bad roster. We’ve long seen teams deploy young players over veterans in these scenarios, but there are ways to even limit the effectiveness of the veterans you do play based on how the team performs when certain player combinations are on the floor together.
This got us wondering what lineups are the worst for each of these bottom teams and what lineups are seeing a bump in minutes over the past 10 games as efforts towards tanking may have really ramped up. Now, There are a lot of five-man lineups deployed by every team, and with a lot of these teams trading or releasing players, it got you to some extremely small sample sizes. We decided to look at three-man lineups and set up some criteria for each one.
Most importantly, the players all have to be on the roster and active right now. So if a player is out for the season due to injury, has been traded or released (like Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova in Atlanta), or has been deactivated for tanking purposes (like Robin Lopez in Chicago) we won’t count those lineups. For the worst lineups on the season, they have to have played at least 290 minutes together on the season to avoid too small of a sample size.
For each team, you will see listed the most used lineups on the season, the worst three-man lineups this season, and the most used lineups in the past 10 games to see what teams are steering into the skid with regards to playing its worst groupings more. Many have seen changes due to roster moves made at or around the trade deadline or injuries, but you can see some small shifts from some teams as they are committing to playing worse players.
This isn’t a foolproof system for figuring this out. For one, some teams have the luxury, if you can call it that, of having so many different units that struggle together that you can’t clearly tell if they’re actively trying to put the worst combination on the court. This also only takes into account the most used lineups, and sometimes it can be as subtle as adding a few minutes here or there to someone’s rotations or the timing of when a certain lineup is on the floor. In any case, here are your looks at each of the six teams and how they’re deploying lineups recently compared to the season as a whole.
Atlanta Hawks
Most Used:
Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Dennis Schröder (-4.1 net rating, 949 minutes)
Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmon, Dennis Schröder (-0.6, 475 minutes)
Dewayne Dedmon, Taurean Prince, Dennis Schröder (-6.6, 462 minutes)
Kent Bazemore, Miles Plumlee, Dennis Schröder (-7.7, 435 minutes)
Kent Bazemore, Miles Plumlee, Taurean Prince (-5.1, 410 minutes)
Worst Lineups:
John Collins, Taurean Prince, Dennis Schröder (-10.9, 383 minutes)
Kent Bazemore, Miles Plumlee, Dennis Schröder (-7.7, 435 minutes)
Miles Plumlee, Taurean Prince, Dennis Schröder (-7.6, 407 minutes)
Last 10 games:
Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, Dennis Schröder (-8.8, 114 minutes)
Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmon, Dennis Schröder (+16.8, 108 minutes)
Dewayne Dedmon, Taurean Prince, Dennis Schröder (-11.3, 104 minutes)
John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, Taurean Prince (-5.2, 86 minutes)
John Collins, Tyler Dorsey, Taurean Prince (-9.5, 84 minutes)
Takeaways: Before we really get into the Hawks situation, we have to note they are the biggest wildcard here. Having rid themselves of Belinelli, Ilyasova, and Luke Babbitt, they have only two lineups that even fit into our criteria for the season, and when you dive into the last 10 games, they’re a mess of different lineups and are just, in general, all over the place.
Belinelli’s lineups were, on the whole, disasters, so waiving him might have hurt the tank operation more than helping. Ilyasova was a net neutral it seemed, so the buyout there will likely help matters. In any case, Atlanta doesn’t really have an awful lot of agency when it comes to lineups being better or worse.
You can see that John Collins’ name is appearing more often in place of Miles Plumlee as they look to the youth movement, but there’s not a ton of difference in lineups featuring him recently compared to Plumlee all season. The biggest negative impact right now for the Hawks, based on these numbers, is second-year wing Taurean Prince.
Dallas Mavericks
All Season:
Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Dennis Smith Jr. (-12.3, 1,190 minutes)
Harrison Barnes, Yogi Ferrell, Wesley Matthews (-4.8, 966 minutes)
Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki (-15.0, 743 minutes)
Harrison Barnes, Maxi Kleber, Wesley Matthews (-8.9, 669 minutes)
Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, Dennis Smith Jr. (-15.6, 646 minutes)
Worst Lineups:
Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, Dennis Smith Jr. (-17.0, 572 minutes)
Maxi Kleber, Wesley Matthews, Dennis Smith Jr. (-16.8, 463 minutes)
Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, Dennis Smith Jr. (-15.6, 646 minutes)
Last 10 Games:
Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, Dennis Smith Jr. (-21.8, 186 minutes)
J.J. Barea, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell (+24.4, 139 minutes)
Yogi Ferrell, Wesley Matthews, Dennis Smith Jr. (-25.3, 114 minutes)
Wesley Matthews, Dwight Powell, Dennis Smith Jr. (-23.5, 108 minutes)
Harrison Barnes, Yogi Ferrell, Dennis Smith Jr. (-22.3, 102 minutes)
Takeaways: It’s almost as if playing with a rookie point guard makes you worse. This is usually the case for most every rookie point guard that enters the league, save a very few (like Ben Simmons this year). The Mavs are the case study for Windhorst and Tim MacMahon’s deep dive into tanking, and you can see how it’s relatively easy for them to be bad.
Most any lineup they throw out there with Smith is going to struggle and you can justify it as giving him learning experience. Throw in Maxi Kleber for some occasional burn and you’ve got arguably the best tank in the NBA, as DSJ and Kleber lineups have an almost comical -34.1 net rating in 77 minutes over the past 10 games.
Orlando Magic
All Season:
Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic (+2.0, 715 minutes)
Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Simmons (-4.4, 694 minutes)
Bismack Biyombo, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Simmons (-11.7, 516 minutes)
Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Simmons, Nikola Vucevic (-1.2, 462 minutes)
Evan Fournier, Jonathan Simmons, Nikola Vucevic (+1.9, 415 minutes)
Worst Lineups:
Bismack Biyombo, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon (-12.9, 341 minutes)
Bismack Biyombo, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Simmons (-11.7, 516 minutes)
Bismack Biyombo, M.Hezonja, Jonathan Simmons (-10.7, 311 minutes)
Last 10 Games:
D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Simmons (+0.3, 177 minutes)
Bismack Biyombo, Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja (-14.1, 147 minutes)
Bismack Biyombo, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Simmons (-9.2, 143 minutes)
Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja, Jonathan Simmons (-13.7, 142 minutes)
Bismack Biyombo, Mario Hezonja, Jonathan Simmons (-9.3, 129 minutes)
Takeaways: This seems almost too simple for Orlando, but the more you play Biyombo, the worse you will be. Vucevic is back from his fractured hand and has seen his minutes continue to go up over the last three games to nearly 33 minutes on Monday night. Arguably the best way to figure out whether Frank Vogel is listening to any analytics people telling him how to get the least out of his club will be to watch how he handles the minutes split between Vucevic and Biyombo for the stretch run. To this point, indications are he’s not doing that, as Biyombo’s minutes have dropped to about 15 per game with Vucevic back.
Memphis Grizzlies
All Season:
Dillon Brooks, Tyreke Evans, Marc Gasol (-4.5, 678 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green (-6.5, 627 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Marc Gasol, Andrew Harrison (-7.6, 533 minutes)
Tyreke Evans, Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green (-4.4, 482 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Tyreke Evans, JaMychal Green (-5.4, 442 minutes)
Worst Lineups:
Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green (-16.6, 295 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Mario Chalmers, Marc Gasol (-8.8, 397 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Marc Gasol, Andrew Harrison (-7.6, 533 minutes)
Last 10 Games:
Dillon Brooks, Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green (+0.9, 126 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Marc Gasol, Andrew Harrison (-6.4, 126 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison (-2.5, 113 minutes)
Marc Gasol, JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison (-1.8, 109 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Marc Gasol, Jarell Martin (-18.7, 104 minutes)
Dillon Brooks, Andrew Harrison, Jarell Martin (-18.0, 103 minutes)
Takeaways: Once again this one seems pretty simple. The Grizzlies have been bad, consistently, all year. Nearly every three-man lineup that’s played 300 minutes is a net negative on the season, but they’ve thrust Jarell Martin into a starting role and it has been an unmitigated disaster.
You can see this in most every lineup combination the Grizzles are able to hang around, but their net rating falls off a cliff in lineups featuring Martin. There are four more three-man lineups featuring Martin that have been on the floor over the past 10 games, three are -21 or worse and the “best” is -14.2. Since January 17, Martin is averaging 28.1 minutes per game. Prior to that, he was averaging 17.7 minutes a night. If Martin continues to get major minutes that might be a tip on whether the Grizz are using “inverse analytics” to stack the deck against themselves, so to speak.
Phoenix Suns
All Season:
Devin Booker, Tyson Chandler, T.J. Warren (-3.6, 611 minutes)
Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss, T.J. Warren (-1.2, 534 minutes)
Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis, T.J. Warren (-7.3, 488 minutes)
Marquese Chriss, Tyler Ulis, T.J. Warren (-10.5, 456 minutes)
Tyson Chandler, Marquese Chriss, T.J. Warren (-5.2, 448 minutes)
Worst Lineups:
Tyson Chandler, Tyler Ulis, T.J. Warren (-15.8, 442 minutes)
Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson, Tyler Ulis (-14.8, 290 minutes)
Dragan Bender, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren (-10.6, 412 minutes)
Last 10 Games:
Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson, T.J. Warren (-9.7, 128 minutes)
Dragan Bender, Elfrid Payton, T.J. Warren (-9.0, 116 minutes)
Dragan Bender, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren (-3.6, 92 minutes)
Devin Booker, Elfrid Payton, T.J. Warren (-14.5, 92 minutes)
Alex Len, Elfrid Payton, T.J. Warren (-9.9, 90 minutes)
Takeaways: The Suns are arguably in the best tanking position simply because all their guys are young and they all make the mistakes young players make. Seemingly every combination will, eventually, yield a net negative. They are clearly a better basketball team with Devin Booker on the floor, which should come as no shock to anyone. They are a worse team whenever they can get rookie Josh Jackson on the floor, which is happening more and more recently (partially as a byproduct of Devin Booker’s absence for a few games with an injury).
Also, and again this is all marginal, the Suns appear to be slightly worse with Bender on the floor compared to Chriss, but for the season the difference is -0.8 in their on/off splits.
Sacramento Kings
All Season:
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Zach Randolph (-13.7, 476 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, De’Aaron Fox (-10.3, 455 minutes)
De’Aaron Fox, Zach Randolph, Garrett Temple (-10.2, 399 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Garrett Temple (-15.4, 380 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Buddy Hield (-1.8, 379 minutes)
Worst Lineups:
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Zach Randolph, Garrett Temple (-17.6, 319 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Garrett Temple (-15.4, 380 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Zach Randolph (-13.7, 476 minutes)
Last 10 Games:
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, De’Aaron Fox (-10.3, 182 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Justin Jackson (-12.6, 178 minutes)
Willie Cauley-Stein, De’Aaron Fox, Justin Jackson (-12.1, 177 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Aaron Fox, Justin Jackson (-14.7, 163 minutes)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Willie Cauley-Stein, Zach Randolph (-8.4, 130 minutes)
Takeaways: The Kings’ consistency in being very bad at basketball is impressive. They may not have lineups like the Suns or Mavs that dive into the -20s, but almost all of their most used lineups, either for the season or in the last 10 games, are in the -10 to -12 net rating zone.
You can see a bigger commitment recently to giving Justin Jackson playing time, which has consistently led to poor net ratings, compared to Zach Randolph, who has been a part of their better lineups in the last 10 games. But their minutes have been split almost dead even since late January, a departure from Randolph seeing six more minutes per game on average for the entire season. Sacramento doesn’t need to actively do much with its roster to be bad, so “inverse analytics” may not be a necessity for the Kings to get the desired results.
Chicago Bulls
All Season:
Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine (-6.9, 840 minutes)
Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen (-5.4, 785 minutes)
Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Denzel Valentine (-5.2, 680 minutes)
Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine (-7.4, 647 minutes)
Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen (-7.6, 611 minutes)
Worst Lineups:
Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen (-7.6, 611 minutes)
Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine (-7.4, 647 minutes)
Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine (-6.9, 840 minutes)
Last 10 Games:
Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Zach LaVine (-2.1, 130 minutes)
Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Lauri Markkanen (+3.8, 96 minutes)
Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Bobby Portis (+4.6, 94 minutes)
David Nwaba, Bobby Portis, Denzel Valentine (-16.7, 90 minutes)
Justin Holiday, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen (+1.3, 74 minutes)
Takeaways: This is a tricky exercise with the Bulls considering the parameters set, because they just started really committing to the tank a week ago. Lopez was part of most of their worst lineups, so shutting him down might initially seem like a move that isn’t consistent with the tank message until you see the numbers for three-man lineups involving Felicio recently. Let’s marvel at those lineups, albeit in some small sample sizes.
Kris Dunn, Cristiano Felicio, Lauri Markkanen (-45.1, 60 minutes)
Kris Dunn, Cristiano Felicio, David Nwaba (-41.5, 53 minutes)
Cristiano Felicio, Lauri Markkanen, David Nwaba (-41.3, 52 minutes)
Cristiano Felicio, David Nwaba, Denzel Valentine (-13.9, 40 minutes)
Kris Dunn, Cristiano Felicio, Zach LaVine (-39.1, 38 minutes)
Cristiano Felicio, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen (-36.7, 38 minutes)
Cristiano Felicio, Zach LaVine, David Nwaba (-34.0, 37 minutes)
Felicio is a one-man tanking crew, no matter who else is on the floor for Chicago. The only exception to this is Denzel Valentine, and then the team is just “bad.” The Bulls appear to have fully flipped the switch and will be pivoting between resting LaVine and Holiday off and on the rest of the way, with Lopez likely on ice for the remainder. For as long as they deploy Felicio, they appear capable of being as bad as anyone.
