The 2016-2017 Miami Heat were exceptionally weird. Erik Spoelstra’s team started 11-30 before completely flipping the script, finishing the season on a 30-11 run to reach the .500 mark in wild fashion. While that second-half squad was a lot of fun, the performance also felt at least partially unsustainable, though that didn’t stop Miami’s front office from doubling down, re-signing several players to hefty contracts and essentially running things back for the 2017-2018 campaign.
For a while, that looked to be a wise move given the results on the floor, with the Heat racking up a 27-19 record despite the lengthy absence of well-paid shooting guard Dion Waiters. However, the team’s mojo has evaporated in recent days and a quick study indicates that, well, the Heat were quite fortunate to have the upward trajectory from the early portion of the campaign.
In the team’s first 46 games, the Heat sported a -1.0 net rating. That, of course, means that Miami was outscored for the season despite posting the aforementioned 27-19 record. Since then, the reckoning has arrived to the tune of a 4-10 mark (and a 2-8 clip in the last ten games), leaving many to assume that Miami is simply playing worse.
With that said, the Heat actually have improved to a -0.2 net rating over that time period and haven’t been able to execute flawlessly in clutch situations. Miami is -12.9 points per 100 possessions in the 13 games involving the “clutch” distinction (via NBA.com) and that stands in stark contrast to the absurd +24.2 net rating in those same situations from the previous portion of the season. Neither mark is entirely representative of the Heat’s actual performance level but, even with a high-end coach and some quality execution, a team cannot expect to light the world on fire in every close game to sustain a winning mark.
The Heat currently occupy the No. 8 position in the Eastern Conference and, given the rest of the standings, that seems to be a likely finishing spot for Miami this season. Still, there is at least a chance the regression continues to the point of a missed playoff run and, at the very least, a team that has been outscored for the season doesn’t appear quite as dangerous as it did just a few weeks ago, even with similar peripherals.
Where does Miami stack up against the rest of the league in our Dime Power Rankings this week? Let’s explore.
1. Golden State Warriors (47-14, Last week — 1st)
The Warriors have won three straight and JaVale McGee inspired Jon Stewart to make the perfect face on Monday evening. Everything’s fine in Oakland.
2. Houston Rockets (47-13, Last week — 2nd)
It is Houston, not Golden State, that maintains the league’s best record and the Rockets have won 13 in a row. The most recent victory, on the road in Salt Lake City, was quite impressive and this is a legitimate title contender. Honestly, the Rockets are probably undervalued right now.
3. Toronto Raptors (42-17, Last week — 3rd)
Skepticism is understandable with the Raptors but Toronto has been the best team in the East this season by a significant margin. The Raps are riding a stretch in which they’ve won eight of nine games (with the only loss coming by four points to Milwaukee) and nothing outside of playoff history tells you that Toronto isn’t tremendously dangerous.
4. Boston Celtics (43-19, Last week — 7th)
After three straight losses, doubters circled the Celtics but Boston has now reeled off three consecutive wins and that will do wonders in righting the ship. Granted, the victories didn’t come against the highest level of competition but, in the stretch run, racking up wins always helps.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (35-24, Last week — 4th)
Tyronn Lue lamented Cleveland’s “predictable” offense and the Cavs have lost two of three. We’re going to wait to see if there’s real reason to worry, but the shine of the new pieces may be wearing off to some degree.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves (38-26, Last week — 6th)
The loss of Jimmy Butler means that Minnesota isn’t quite this good, at least until he returns healthy. In the same breath, the Wolves managed to hold serve in their last two games (against bad opponents) and we can’t knock them just yet.
7. New Orleans Pelicans (34-26, Last week — 17th)
Anthony Davis is out of his mind. The All-NBA forward is averaging 41.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, 3.2 blocks and 3.0 steals per game over the last six and, in conjunction with that burst, the Pelicans have won six in a row. One wouldn’t think that’s sustainable, but it’s been a lot of fun.
8. Washington Wizards (35-25, Last week — 8th)
The Wizards are generally playing well but that didn’t stop them from a throwback meltdown in a lopsided home loss to the Hornets. Trust Washington at your own peril while also realizing this is, on the whole, a good basketball team.
9. San Antonio Spurs (36-25, Last week — 9th)
It’s been a weird run for the Spurs. Obviously, the Kawhi Leonard saga lingers in the background and, on the floor, San Antonio lost four straight before recovering (right on schedule) to throttle the Cavs on national TV. Interpreting that is a difficult challenge.
10. Portland Trail Blazers (34-26, Last week — 15th)
Fully buying in to Portland is tough but it is undeniable how well the team has played in the recent past. Only a home blemish against the Jazz (a team that simply couldn’t lose during that stretch) keeps the Blazers from a lengthy winning streak and they are just floating in the background.
11. Utah Jazz (31-30, Last week — 5th)
The Jazz finally lost a basketball game… and then they lost another one to Houston. Trying to find the actual baseline for this Utah team is difficult at the moment but I still believe they are good.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (35-27, Last week — 12th)
Getting blasted in Oakland didn’t do wonders for the perception of Oklahoma City but they’ve been fine otherwise. Honestly, this ranking still feels low but, at some point, the win-loss production has to matter.
13. Philadelphia 76ers (32-26, Last week — 13th)
A seven-game winning streak came to an end with a loss to the Wizards but that isn’t a knock on the Sixers. They have upside (well) beyond this ranking and Philly is also far more entertaining than a few teams ahead of them.
14. Denver Nuggets (33-27, Last week — 10th)
Since late January, the Nuggets have four losses and they came to the Rockets (twice), Celtics and Spurs. Not bad. Oh, and they’ll be getting Paul Millsap back soon.
15. Indiana Pacers (34-26, Last week — 11th)
Losing to the Mavs probably docked Indiana four or five spots. That can’t happen right now.
16. Milwaukee Bucks (33-26, Last week — 14th)
The Bucks don’t have any bad losses in the recent past and, if you’re looking for a positive, that is probably it. Overall, though, Milwaukee’s performance isn’t overly inspiring.
17. Los Angeles Clippers (31-27, Last week — 16th)
I’m still not buying it but the Clippers have been lights-out on offense in recent days. If that’s real, I’m too low on them.
18. Charlotte Hornets (27-33, Last week — 20th)
Break up the Hornets! Four wins in a row is nice and, even noting the fact that three of the wins (Orlando, Brooklyn, Detroit) came against bad competition, nothing is given in the NBA.
19. Los Angeles Lakers (26-34, Last week — 21st)
The Lakers had a brutal stretch in December and January but, aside from that, quality basketball has emanated from Los Angeles. Right now, Luke Walton’s team is riding a three-game winning streak and that pushes them into the top 20 this week.
20. Miami Heat (31-29, Last week — 19th)
Losing eight of ten at this juncture should probably drop a team further than Miami has fallen but there is something of a floor given how bad the bottom of the league is. The Heat avoided full-fledged disaster in beating Memphis in their last outing but, make no mistake, it isn’t going well right now.
21. Detroit Pistons (28-32, Last week — 18th)
Remember when the Pistons had some mojo after the Blake Griffin trade? Well, that’s gone. Detroit has dropped six of seven, including losses to the Hawks and Hornets, and even the team’s win (home against Atlanta) didn’t do much to impress.
22. Dallas Mavericks (19-42, Last week — 22nd)
Dallas has the best roster of any team in the bottom tier and the Mavs picked up a nice win over the Pacers on Monday. The rest of this week didn’t go well for the Mavs but that win buoyed them in this space.
23. Brooklyn Nets (20-41, Last week — 27th)
Frankly, it is amusing that the Nets are this high. This is a bad roster but they play very hard and Brooklyn happened to dominate Chicago on the floor on Monday. Timing matters in this space.
24. New York Knicks (24-38, Last week — 29th)
The Knicks are dreadful in their current form but New York did beat Orlando recently (hurray!) and that keeps them above water when it comes to avoiding the bottom five. Small victories abound.
25. Sacramento Kings (18-42, Last week — 25th)
Sacramento’s four-game losing streak features three playoff-bound opponents and that makes things look better. We’re really trying here.
26. Orlando Magic (18-42, Last week — 26th)
The Magic have dropped six straight and that’s bad. If you’re looking for a bright side, though, only one of those losses came by double figures and no defeat was by more than 11 points. Progress, maybe?
27. Chicago Bulls (20-40, Last week — 23rd)
If it seems impossible to lose to the Brooklyn Nets by 17 points, that’s because it probably is. Well, unless you are the Chicago Bulls… who accomplished that feat on Monday.
28. Atlanta Hawks (18-43, Last week — 24th)
Atlanta was playing competitive basketball at times before the All-Star break but the two games of evidence in a post-break world have been hideous. The most recent effort, a blowout home loss to the Lakers, acts as the central basis for their landing spot this week.
29. Memphis Grizzlies (18-41, Last week — 28th)
It is frankly amazing that a team with an 18-41 record and an active 10-game losing streak is not No. 30 on this list. God bless the Phoenix Suns.
30. Phoenix Suns (18-44, Last week — 30th)
The Suns ran into an Anthony Davis buzzsaw on Monday and there is nothing wrong with that. The fact that Phoenix dropped that game (and blew a lead) after losing nine others in consecutive fashion is more of a problem.
