The 2017 NCAA Tournament is here and everyone is searching for upset picks. That is, after they finally got over arguing about snubs. That’s the nature of the most “public” sporting event this side of the Super Bowl. Frankly, there’s no reason for it to change. With all of that in mind, there are a few prime candidates this year.
Who are we kidding? There will probably be an upset that doesn’t appear on this list (it is March Madness, after all) but anything beyond these would be reckless to actually project. Finally, no games pitting 8-vs-9 or 7-vs-10 seeds should be considered “upsets” regardless of outcome so only teams sporting numbers larger than “11” next to their names are eligible.
Let’s meet our contenders, broken down by tiers.
Probably Not But Maybe?
No. 13 Winthrop over No. 4 Butler: Butler is an annual NCAA Tournament darling and they are (very) good again in 2017. With that said, Chris Holtmann’s team isn’t incredibly talented and the Bulldogs have three losses to teams outside of the RPI Top 100 this season. In other words, Butler can be picked off on any given night and Pat Kelsey’s Winthrop team can play.
No. 12 UNC-Wilmington over No. 5 Virginia: The Cavaliers are in something of a “down” year under Tony Bennett and it is a testament to that program that earning a No. 5 seed can be described as such. However, Virginia is more “beatable” than the average team of their performance level, simply because they play at a glacial pace. Fewer possessions means more variance and, in the event Virginia’s shots simply aren’t falling, the door could be open for the Seahawks (!) to grab the upset.
No. 13 Bucknell over No. 3 West Virginia: This is the biggest long-shot in this space and the Vegas line (14 points) reflects that. Still, West Virginia is something of a “one-trick pony” in that they are a swarming, press-oriented team. If Bucknell can quickly solve that pressure and take care of the basketball, they can stay close. If they can’t, the Bison could lose by 25.
Legitimate Fear
No. 12 Nevada over No. 5 Iowa State: The Mountain West wasn’t great this season, but Nevada was the class of the conference. The Wolfpack are quite dangerous and, even with Iowa State featuring a tremendous lead guard in Monte Morris, Nevada is capable of pulling off the shocker. If anything, the underdog received a tougher match-up than they probably deserved. This is a legitimate squad.
No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Purdue: Vermont hasn’t lost a basketball since Dec. 21 and that was a competitive road loss to Butler. In other words, the Catamounts are excellent. Throw in the fact that Purdue has an earned reputation for early-tournament futility and this could get dicey. Make no mistake, the Boilermakers are good and Caleb Swanigan is an awesome college player. That doesn’t mean Vermont can’t win.
The Upsets That Aren’t Upsets
No. 12 Middle Tennessee State over No. 5 Minnesota: The Golden Gophers had a nice season under Richard Pitino and they’ve been a great story. That all ends here, as Minnesota is wildly over-seeded as a No. 5 and Middle Tennessee State, if anything, is under-seeded given their reign of terror in C-USA. By game time, the Blue Raiders might be favored in Las Vegas and we need only to look back 12 months to remember what the Blue Raiders did to Michigan State on college basketball’s biggest stage.
No. 11 Rhode Island over No. 6 Creighton: Since the injury to Maurice Watson, Creighton hasn’t been the same. In fact, this is a team that is probably over-seeded based on their performance without Watson on the floor and Rhode Island is scary good out of the Atlantic 10. The Bluejays are favored by less than a bucket in this game. While the seeding might indicate otherwise, there would be nothing surprising about the No. 11 Rams picking up a win.
No. 11 Xavier over No. 6 Maryland: No one knows why the Terps are seeded on the 6-line. To make that (somewhat) fair, the committee saddled Mark Turgeon’s team with an extremely difficult 6/11 match-up. A No. 11 seed almost always advances to round two and, given the Vegas line (2 points), this might be the one. Unless Melo Trimble has other ideas.
