The Miami Heat ascended to the NBA’s mountaintop this past summer, and now have an even larger target on their back entering the 2012-2013 NBA season. They stand firmly in the way of anyone else in the Eastern Conference who hopes to go to the Finals. What’s worse for the other Eastern Conference hopefuls is that the Heat have additional firepower in the form of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. But… the games still need to be played and in this NBA landscape, nothing is promised – not even a return trip to South Beach for next June’s Finals.
To be the champ, it’s customary to actually beat the champ. Here are the top five Eastern Conference teams that could extinguish the Heat’s bid at a third-straight Finals appearance…
5. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
This is a team that was both lucky and good during their playoff drive last season. They fell to the veteran Boston Celtics after seven gruesomely-played games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals after ousting the Derrick Rose-less Chicago Bulls in the first round. Their offense struggled at times, lacking a consistent “get buckets” player, and hung their collective hats on defense creating offense through opponent’s turnovers.
In early August, they capitalized on a franchise-changing move, acquiring Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson as part of the massive Dwight Howard trade. They lost their longtime leader Andre Iguodala, as well as Nikola Vucevic and rookie swingman Moe Harkless as a result but now, they are closer to a championship with their current pieces.
They lost Lou Williams to free agency but replaced him with Nick Young, who does most of the same things Williams did (with the exception of creating for others). They also acquired Dorell Wright to bolster their perimeter shooting and defense. With Bynum, Young, Richardson and Wright added to the core of Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes the 76ers have a mix of youth and veterans that most teams lack.
A lot must go right for the 76ers, starting with the health of Bynum, if they are to make a legitimate run. Bynum’s knees appear to be made out of spare Mike Miller parts, and he is already listed as doubtful for the season opener despite offseason surgery. He will need to be dominate (like otherworldly, MVP dominate) and the 76ers need Holiday and Turner to continue their emergence as impact players in the league. I’d like to see Holiday average around 17 points and 7.5 assists per game, and take on a leadership role with Bynum. I’m sure head coach Doug Collins would like to see the same as well. Collins is one of the best teachers in the game and will help the youthful development of a talented roster that has valuable playoff experience.
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4. NEW YORK KNICKS
Nobody was as surprised to see the Knicks lose to the Heat in five games in last year’s playoffs as the Knicks themselves. Surely they thought they were further along, but they also have a false sense of optimism when they take into account their plethora of injuries. Jeremy Lin, Iman Shumpert, Baron Davis and Amar’e Stoudemire all dealt with significant injuries during their short-lived playoff run. Even if healthy, that team doesn’t beat Miami, yet the series surely would have been more competitive. C’est la vie.
It’s a new day in New York and the Knicks have a chip the size of a Big Apple on their shoulders. The Brooklyn Nets have moving in on the Knicks’ “territory” while claiming to be the best team in the five boroughs. For the Knicks, that’s pretty much the equivalent of someone taking a deuce on your living room floor. The Knicks hope to prove doubters wrong with an improved defense behind the aged, but capable group of Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas and Rasheed Wallace in their frontcourt. Newly-acquired Ronnie Brewer should start at shooting guard, and is a nuisance as a defender, but he will come off the bench in a specialist role once Shumpert returns from injury. The point guard position left by Lin’s departure to Houston was filled by Raymond Felton and Jason Kidd. That combination should easily produce 10-plus assists per night for New York. Felton is slimmer and angry (no really… he is angry) about how folks perceived his wasted season last year.
The Knicks’ hopes to challenge for the East crown are fueled by the continuity they gained when Mike Woodson took over as head coaching. Under Woodson, they were 18-6 with an improved defense that finished 11th in opposing points per game. He seems to be the right coach for this team and he has one of the best benches in the NBA at his disposal. J.R. Smith, Steve Novak and Kidd could be one of the most productive units off the pine we will see this season. All of this, plus a slimmer, and presumably more focused Carmelo Anthony. Yeah… the Knicks should be pretty tough this season.
3. INDIANA PACERS
Short on intriguing personalities, but large in depth and talent, the Pacers are a youthful Eastern Conference version of the San Antonio Spurs. They tried to play out of character with a roughhouse-style of basketball when they faced the Heat during the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and were ultimately brushed off in six games. They (like most other teams) had no answers for LeBron or Wade.
Their personnel did not change much over the summer. They’re looking to rely on another year of continuity and chemistry amongst their core group. But they didn’t exactly stand pat, either. Darren Collison and Dahntay Jones were traded to the Dallas Mavericks for budding center Ian Mahinmi. They scooped up D.J. Augustin after his qualifying offer was rescinded by the Charlotte Bobcats (His numbers were slightly better than those of Collison last season). Their biggest acquisition was arguably the signing of “take flight” swingman Gerald Green. His resurgence in New Jersey after last year’s All-Star Game (12.9 points per night in 31 games) netted him a 3-year deal worth $10.5 million with Indiana.
The Pacers will need to play through Roy Hibbert and David West, and rely less on Danny Granger in order to be more than a regular season wonder. Granger’s numbers have regressed since appearing in the All-Star Game in 2009, and it’s time for him to give way to Paul George. Hibbert and West must provide the inside presence to open up the perimeter and driving lanes for guys like George, Granger and George Hill. West is probably the guy they will rely on the most come playoff time, and it does remain to be seen if he is 100 percent capable of that type of pressure.
Because Chicago won’t have Derrick Rose for a considerable amount of the season, they are looking at a relatively easy ride in the Central Division this year. That should lead to a high seed with homecourt advantage when the playoffs arrive in April, and possibly, a chance to reach the Finals.
2. BROOKLYN NETS
They didn’t land Dwight Howard in the offseason, but they revamped their roster to the tune of $84 million with three max players (Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson), and at last count, a total of 10 new players now in the fold. That is one hell of a way to say “Hello Brooklyn.”
What the Nets have done, besides spend a boatload of money, is make themselves into a collection of talented players that, if meshed properly, could be insanely problematic for the rest of the conference. They boast one of the better starting fives in the league with Williams, Johnson, Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries and Lopez. Then, their bench is full of castoffs who can still be productive players in limited minutes. C.J. Watson, Josh Childress, Keith Bogans, Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche lead the veteran group, followed by youngsters MarShon Brooks, Tyshawn Taylor and Mirza Teletovic. Blatche and Brooks are weapons off the bench, and in particular, their acquisition of Blatche for a veteran minimum, non-guaranteed deal is going to make opposing GMs sick later in the season.
This team can score, and will finish well above their 24th-ranking in scoring average from a season ago. Their three-point shooting will be streaky but not problematic. Brooklyn’s frontline has the size and athleticism to match Miami’s, and Williams is no contest against any of the Heat’s floor generals. The only thing keeping Brooklyn back is familiarity with each other on the court. That will come… these aren’t your grandfather’s Nets and they will put the rest of the conference on notice once the season starts.
1. BOSTON CELTICS
When referring to the Celtics it’s become customary to throw the adjective old in almost every post. But when you win the way they have, and take the defending NBA champions to the brink of elimination during the Eastern Conference Finals, old transforms into veteran, proud and never say die. Funny how that happens.
What’s even more comical is how Boston is no longer the old man on the NBA block; the Knicks are actually the oldest team in the league now. Sure, the veterans Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are past their prime, but with Ray Allen fleeing to Miami, only Jason Terry, Jason Collins and Chris Wilcox join KG and Pierce in the over-30 club. Terry has the motor of 22-year-old while Collins and Wilcox are not expected to see much time.
Boston could give a damn about people’s views on their age. They are built to win and have their most talented roster since their championship run in 2008. Terry, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, Avery Bradley, rookie Jared Sullinger, Brandon Bass and Darko Milicic give Boston depth at every position. They are led by Rajon Rondo, a perennial All-Star, and are guided by one of the best coaches in the game, Doc Rivers.
The key to Boston’s run at banner 18 is solely dependent on health, and Rondo raising his play to become a MVP candidate. They have the depth to sustain injuries during the regular season, but they must have their full complement of players to dispose of the Heat in the playoffs. Garnett’s plus/minus ratio was a ridiculous plus-138 during the postseason, good for fourth behind LeBron, Wade and Tim Duncan. Yet the Celtics need his minutes to diminish as he simply can’t log that kind of burn anymore. The biggest problem with Boston’s roster is they don’t have a reliable post presence when Garnett is off the floor. Rondo will need to penetrate and get easy baskets when Garnett rests so the Boston offense doesn’t sputter.
If healthy, Boston should finish with a top-3 seed. If they suffer a significant injury or struggle out of the gate with all the new pieces, it could be a difficult regular season. But no matter where they finish, this is the team Miami least wants to see with a trip to the Finals on the line.
Who are Miami’s biggest threats in the East?
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