Each Wednesday, we’ll be assessing how the top prospects of the 2013 NBA Draft are faring in college and overseas. Stick with us each week for assorted thoughts, including the biggest risers and fallers, the standouts, the sleepers and what we know and don’t know about the next NBA Draft class…
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March Madness is upon us and everything we learned over the past four to five months will be put to the test here as the best prospects in the country step into the spotlight. As the tournament has proven over the years, anyone can win, but also that a player like Dwyane Wade can come of age before our eyes. Will that happen this year?
Here is the NBA Draft Fast Five March Madness Edition.
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ONE: Which Is The Most Talented Region?
Using the simple metric of my 2013 Big Board, the talent is not spread evenly across regions. The South has the most lottery talent with Ben McLemore, Otto Porter, Shabazz Muhammad, Trey Burke and James McAdoo. All will go in the top 20 of the 2013 NBA Draft if they declare this year.
The East is not far behind with Anthony Bennett, Michael Carter-Williams, Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo that are all likely lottery picks. The most interesting element about this region is that all of those prospects are in the same eight-team bracket. They will face off.
Behind those two regions are the Midwest (Marcus Smart, Mason Plumlee and Adreian Payne) and the West (Kelly Olynyk) with four combined between the two. There are some sleepers in Gary Harris, Steven Adams and Gorgui Dieng, but they are more of the outside looking in.
TWO: Does NBA Talent Matter?
Since the 2000 NCAA Tournament all but three teams that have cut down the nets had at least one lottery pick on the roster. The 2000 Michigan State Spartans had two first-round picks, the 2006 Florida Gators returned everyone for a second championship, and the 2010 Duke Blue Devils were a team in the truest sense.
Look at the runner-ups during that span and they all had a lottery talent on their roster except for Georgia Tech in 2004, UCLA in 2006, Michigan State in 2009, and Butler in 2011.
Nearly every prospect was a projected lottery talent coming into the tournament with the exception of Jared Jeffries and Kemba Walker. Again, looking at the 2013 Big Board, there are 12 potential lottery picks on 10 different teams. Interesting.
THREE: Who Can Raise Their Stock?
Two prospects to watch here are Steven Adams (Pittsburgh) and Reggie Bullock (North Carolina). If their teams take care of business in the first round of the tournament then they will be pared against two potential lottery picks in Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga) and Ben McLemore (Kansas) with the potential to outplay them, and, in the process, they have the very real possibility of knocking off a No. 1 seed.
Both Adams and Bullock are two-way players that are potential first-round picks in the early to late 20s overall right now.
Adams matches up very well with Olynyk with his athleticism and defensive prowess. He will make the Gonzaga star earn all his points and has the ability to shut him down for one game. On the perimeter Bullock matches up well with McLemore physically as they have very similar frames and length. He is a very good defender off the ball, which is McLemore’s specialty on offense. Crazy, defense is something to watch and keep an eye on.
Hit page 2 for five prospects that can pull a D-Wade in the tourney…
FOUR: Who Can Slide?
Sliding because of a loss in a team sport is a silly concept when you are looking at an individual player. So here I am looking at Michael Carter-Williams of Syracuse because of his overall play in the past nine games.
In those nine games, the Orange went 4-5 overall while MCW underachieved on the court. He was more turnover prone (3.5), didn’t shoot well from the line (65.7 percent), and was not as impactful on the offensive end (10.0 PPG, 6.5 APG). If that is the MCW that plays against Montana on Thursday they may not get past round one.
The first 26 games of the season were a lot kinder to the dynamic sophomore. He was turning the ball over at a similar rate (3.4), but was scoring and distributing the ball at a very high clip (13.5 PPG and 8.2 APG) while leading the Orange to an impressive 22-4 mark that was worthy of being a No. 1 seed in March — until MCW hit his wall. If this continues into the tournament, I can see MCW falling out of the top 10 and into the late lottery or a little after that.
FIVE: Quick Hitter
The NCAA Tournament is not a magical portal to basketball talent. All of these guys can play on this level, but it is a measuring stick to create separation on individual big boards between a pool of prospects that may have been seen as equals.
Some overvalue performances and because of that, prospects like Patrick O’Bryant have the opportunity to be lottery picks.
There is little justification from a scout to look at a player that has been rated in the 30s or 40s all season, with a complete book on them, and then take them 20-30 slots higher because of a game or two. That is nonsensical. The tournament does a very good job of making good NBA scouts look real bad or, on the other side of the pendulum, expose poor scouts for what they are.
Be leery of the unknown becoming a lottery pick in March. In most cases, there is a reason they were unknown between October and February.
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Five Prospects That Can Pull a Dwyane Wade
1. Otto Porter: 6-8, 205 pounds – Soph., Georgetown
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.9 SPG, 48.9 percent FG
The do-it-all forward is the entire offense for the Hoyas and has the ability to put the team on his back for a few games. He is the complete package and is already a consensus top-five pick in most eyes. A strong showing in the NCAA Tournament could vault him to the No. 1 overall pick.
2. Anthony Bennett: 6-8, 240 pounds – Fresh., UNLV
Stats: 16.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 53.8 percent FG, 37.9 percent 3PT
The most dangerous offensive weapon in college basketball can be tamed at times by his teammates and coaches inability to realize how good he is. There is no player in the game that can match his strength, shooting and finishing ability. If Bennett gets hot, and the Rebels feed him, watch out for them to make a deep run. Think Carmelo Anthony and Syracuse in 2003.
3. Marcus Smart: 6-4, 225 pounds – Fresh, Oklahoma State
Stats: 15.4 PPG, 4.2 APG, 5.7 RPG, 2.9 SPG, 40.4 percent FG
Smart has the ball in his hands more than the rest of this field so winning and losing will come down to his execution. The combo guard can score in bunches and is one of the most capable of making a Wade-type run.
4. Trey Burke: 6-1 190 pounds – Soph., Michigan
Stats: 19.2 PPG, 6.7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 47.9 percent FG, 40.1 percent 3PT
The path is brutal so if Burke can make a deep run he will earn it, but the dynamic point guard is capable of strapping his team on his back. There are few players that have the dynamic playmaking ability of Burke, not to mention his ability to hit tough threes. That fearless nature is what the tournament is all about.
5. Tony Snell: 6-7, 200 pounds – Junior., New Mexico
Stats: 12.6 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.9 APG, 42.6 percent FG, 39.9 percent 3PT
Wildcard, anyone? I have the Lobos losing in the National Championship Game and the play of Snell is 100 percent the rationale. He is shooting the three at a very high level as of late, making plays on offense, and in a weak West Region they could make a deep run.
*Check out the NBA Draft Insider’s podcasts with Jeff Borzello (CBS) and Ryan Feldman (ESPN)*
Which prospect will make the biggest leap in March Madness?
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