Week 6 was one to remember in the NFL, from the madness that was Bears-Dolphins on Sunday to the late Monday night heroics of Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. In this space, it was also a positive weekend, as an unfortunate start on Thursday was fully mitigated by a lights-out performance on Sunday.
There is (hopefully) more where that came from in the form of five more picks against the spread for the Week 7 slate but, before we begin fading the public with vigor, here is a look at where we are for the season.
- Week 6: 4-1
- 2018 Season: 18-11-1
Come get these winners.
Note: Lines from Wednesday, Oct. 17.
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) over Denver Broncos
The Cardinals aren’t very good and that should be acknowledged. Arizona has been quite good in getting folks to the window this season, though, and this is a nice spot for Josh Rosen and company. The universe is on Denver, as the Broncos are a public team facing off against an anonymous one, but there is no reason to believe that this particular version is worthy of laying points on the road. You won’t enjoy it, but Arizona is the side.
Cleveland Browns (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’re back on the Baker train. In all honesty, this is more of a play against a Tampa Bay defense with all kinds of issues than it is a play on the Browns but, simply put, I believe Cleveland is the better team. I’m prepared to look very silly if things go south for a team that no one actually enjoys betting on but taking the points is the only way to go in this position.
Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts UNDER 43.5 points
The Bills are a disaster on the offensive side of the ball, ranking last in DVOA and displaying very little to be excited about moving forward. Buffalo has been quite competent defensively, though, and the Colts are a sneaky solid defensive team, ranking in the middle of the league in DVOA. There is real fear if and when the Bills elect to deploy Nate Peterman, simply on the basis of the potential for defensive touchdowns. If Buffalo goes with Derek Anderson, we’ll feel even better about this number but, in the end, this has all the makings of a hideous football game and a bunch of field goals and punts.
Washington (-1.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Everything is going well in Dallas again. The Cowboys absolutely throttled the Jaguars last week to get back to .500, there is buzz about a Jason Garrett contract extension (insert laughter here) and, as always, Dallas is the most public of public teams. On the other side, Washington is a rather bland football team, with Alex Smith at the helm and a quiet 3-2 record. With all of that said, this line is just wrong, as the home team should be laying at least a field goal, and we absolutely must take the extra value.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) over Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes might be an alien and the Chiefs are virtually unstoppable on the offensive side of the ball. We all know this. However, Kansas City is brutal defensively and, at some point, their massive special teams advantage has to regress to the mean, at least to some degree. Make no mistake, the Chiefs should be favored at home against the Bengals but Cincinnati remains undervalued in the market and, as a result, there are a few points of value to find here. If anything, the public wave might keep pushing the line up and there will be even more comfort by kick-off.
