The Man Who’s Predicted All Presidential Elections Since 1984 Still Thinks Trump Will ‘Narrowly’ Win

10.28.16 1 month ago 5 Comments

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A professor who has successfully predicted the outcomes of all presidential elections since 1984 is renewing his claim that Donald Trump will win the election. American University’s Allan Lichtman said Trump’s recent controversies haven’t helped his cause, but that won’t deter him from winning the White House.

In September, Lichtman predicted Trump would come out on top, and he’s still sticking to this assertion, which arrived after 13 true/false keys that he used with much success for 30 years. Lichtman made his previous prediction before the release of Trump’s hot-mic footage and twelve women accused him of sexual assault. However and in an interview with The Washington Post, Lichtman continues to stick to his original prediction:

“Donald Trump’s severe and unprecedented problems bragging about sexual assault and then having ten or more women coming out and saying, ‘Yes, that’s exactly what you did’ — this is without precedent. But it didn’t change a key … By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory. However, there are two major qualifications. And I’m not a hedger, and I’ve never qualified before in 30 years of predictions.”

Lichtman stresses that this is a different type of election (which is why Trump’s scandals blow away), but he also doesn’t seem to take into account that our digital age could impact how people are absorbing information. That is, we’ve got a candidate who’s saturating Twitter at almost every hour. But Lichtman also feels that Libertarian Gary Johnson could impact the race in Trump’s favor. Lichtman is no Nate Silver, whose predictions seem to be odd, but his keys seem to work. November 8 is right around the corner and we’re waiting to see if his impressive streak will hold up.

(Via The Washington Post)

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