The Lakers are the team everyone is watching this summer as we near NBA free agency. Los Angeles has the most cap space in the league and has plans to try signing LeBron James and Paul George, while simultaneously working on a trade to bring Kawhi Leonard to Los Angeles as well.
Trade talks between the Lakers and Spurs have heated up, and the consensus is that LeBron will sign in L.A. if Leonard is there. However, the Spurs could very well drag out trade talks and even flip him elsewhere either for what they truly believe is a better offer or simply out of spite to keep him out of the Western Conference for a year and make the Lakers suffer.
There is a very real chance Paul George chooses to stay in Oklahoma City, which is part of the reason the Lakers are pressing as hard as they are for a Leonard trade right now. Should they miss on Leonard and George stay with the Thunder, it then becomes increasingly unlikely they land LeBron as well.
Magic Johnson has preached mild patience, saying the plan is to land stars over the next two summers, so if they strike out this summer they won’t panic and will look to reset and make another push in 2019. The question, though, is how do the Lakers proceed this summer with all of the cap space they have, to ensure they meet the salary cap floor in 2018-19 while also maintaining the necessary flexibility for 2019 free agency. That is what we will try to answer, looking at L.A.’s cap sheet as it stands now, the free agents available on the market, and possible trades that could yield them a big expiring contract.
The contracts L.A. has signed for 2018-19 totals $39,143,365 (including non-guaranteed contracts for Tyler Ennis, Ivica Zubic, and Thomas Bryant).That leaves seven roster spots and $51.8 million to reach the cap floor. They will almost assuredly renounce rights to Brook Lopez ($33.9 million cap hold), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($21.3 million cap hold), and Channing Frye ($14.1 million cap hold), which gives them plenty of room to make trades and absorb money, even if they hold on to cap holds for Julius Randle and Isaiah Thomas that total just over $24 million.
Here are different ways the Lakers can fill out their roster and add significant expiring money to their cap sheet to still have tons of space for the summer of 2019:
1. Trade for Carmelo Anthony: Stay with me here. Carmelo Anthony has a no-trade clause, however, one would have to think L.A. would be on his shortlist of places he would accept a deal to because he not only would get to a big market, but would also be able to do his thing as a starter. Anthony is a $28 million expiring deal that the Thunder would give away for free if they could, so the Lakers won’t have to give anyone up of consequence to make it happen. Being as far under the cap as the Lakers are once they renounce rights to their various cap holds, they can take the entirety of that contract for a top-55 protected second rounder or something of similar worth. That would leave $23.9 million to fill on six roster spots, which would be pretty easy to do with smaller deals and/or a larger one-year deal.
2. Trade for a different major expiring deal: Let’s say Melo really wants to stay in OKC, below you’ll find a list of major expiring deals that could be available to the Lakers and would eat up a roster spot and significant cap space.
Wesley Matthews ($18.6 million)
DeMarre Carroll ($15.4 million)
Eric Bledsoe ($15 million)
Robin Lopez ($14.3 million)
Kenneth Faried ($13.7 million)
Tyson Chandler ($13.6 million)
Nikola Vucevic ($12.7 million)
Zach Randolph ($11.7 million)
Iman Shumpert ($11 million)
Terence Ross ($10.5 million)
Al Jefferson ($10 million)
Jared Dudley ($9.5 million)
Jerryd Bayless ($8.5 million)
Kosta Koufos ($8.7 million)
Some of these make more sense than others, and some would require the Lakers to give up more than others, but each is a potential trade option for taking on some cap space.
3. Sign free agents to a large one-year deal: This is known as the “J.J. Redick Option” after the Sixers threw $23 million at Redick last year on a 1-year deal to ensure they reached the floor and would have him come off the books for a big free agency push this summer. Given how the market this summer might be light for mid-tier free agents, there is a fairly large list of players that could be willing to take that gamble on a big one year salary to hit the market again next season.
We’ll start with “pie in the sky” and work our way down the list to more reasonable and realistic options. The name of the game here is finding players that might want to gamble on themselves (or simply need a year to rehab their image around the league) to make more money in the future.
DeMarcus Cousins: This one seems highly unlikely, but if no one is willing to throw him anything close to a long-term max offer coming off his Achilles injury and he believes he’s still at that level, Cousins could take the gamble and try to put up huge numbers in L.A. to hit free agency again in 2019.
Aaron Gordon: Aaron Gordon wants a max deal. He says he wants to stay in Orlando, but I’m afraid given their frontcourt log jam and drafting Mo Bamba after taking Jonathan Isaac he’s doomed to keep being played out of position if he re-signs in Orlando longterm. Instead, he should look for a way out. As a restricted free agent it’s hard to do that, but a one-year, max offer sheet to Gordon would let him hit UFA next season and choose his location even if Orlando matches. If the Magic didn’t match for some reason, he’d get to raise his profile for a year in L.A.
Jabari Parker: Another RFA that might not get the love he wants on the open market and could gamble on himself with a short-term deal to prove that, when healthy, he can be worth a max deal. Again, it’s highly, highly unlikely but would be worth making a phone call to see.
Isaiah Thomas: Now we’ve entered the realistic options portion. Thomas was in L.A., and while he says he wants to go somewhere and be the starter, big money for one year with the Lakers to back up Lonzo and prove he can still be an effective player when healthy might be a good option for him.
Derrick Favors: I have no idea what Favors will get on the market given that he’s a bit of a throwback in the form of a slower, plodding big man. He’s been out of position when forced to play next to Rudy Gobert and a year as the center with the Lakers might make his offensive talents pop and earn him some more shine.
Jusuf Nurkic: Kind of the same deal as Favors in terms of the type of player he is. He’s going to have suitors, including the Blazers, but a huge one-year offer might be something worth considering.
Greg Monroe: Monroe takes the “old-school center” thing to the extreme and after falling totally out of Boston’s rotation might also want a year to try and show his worth again.
Avery Bradley: The Grizzlies are apparently interested in Bradley as a mid-level type player, which is likely his market. He had an awful 2017-18 season and the Lakers might be able to rehab that image on a one-year deal.
Rodney Hood: He’s a restricted free agent, but Cleveland likely won’t match much on him. Another guy that could desperately use a bounce back season after a fairly disastrous run with the Cavs, save for Game 3 of the Finals.
4. Re-sign Julius Randle: This would be the option that eats into your 2019 cap space, but looking at the free agents list for then, you’re not finding a really good small ball four (although Kevin Love could opt out and hit the market) and I think Randle’s the kind of player you want on a winning team. Leonard is the top priority in 2019 free agency and Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, an aging Marc Gasol, and others could be targets, but Luol Deng’s deal suddenly becomes an expiring that is at least movable with an asset added to it to create more space. Moving Deng would offset Randle inking a $15ish million a year deal and still allow for the possibility of landing a max guy in Leonard and a near-max guy in 2019.
