Week 4 of the college football season is upon us, which means many teams are a fourth of the way through their schedule and we’re starting to have some solid data points on what teams are going to look like the rest of the season. That’s great for the sports gambler, as it gives us a chance on a relatively weak slate of games to still spray the board on principle plays and trend plays.
After three weeks of action we still might not know what teams are the four best and will make it to the Playoff, but we can be pretty damn sure what teams are bad on offense, bad on defense, or just downright bad. With that in mind, we’ll be taking an awful lot of trend plays this week in another weak slate as conference football gets started in earnest without much fanfare.
Before we look ahead, let’s look back on a solid, but not great Week 3 and where the column stands entering the quarter pole of the season.
Week 3: 4-3
Season: 12-10
We’ll look to build on that with another winning week as we go deep in the Week 4 slate, starting with a familiar face in the column: Missouri. (As always, lines come via VegasInsider.com and picks are in bold.)
Auburn at Missouri UNDER 60
Missouri’s defense is bad and i understand that, but this is an offense that couldn’t score on Purdue (we’ll get to the Boilermakers shortly) and an Auburn team that’s looked downright pitiful on offense this season, putting up a measly 24 on Mercer last week. I expect Auburn to do a bit better job on offense this week, but I have no faith in Missouri to get close to 20 points in this one against a sneakily nasty Auburn defense. I like this to come in well under the total.
Michigan at Purdue (+10)
Let’s talk about Purdue. Jeff Brohm’s boys have been frisky this season and the Missouri game was their announcement to the world that they are a legitimately solid football team. Beating Missouri doesn’t prove anything (ask South Carolina, which is now dead to me), but doing so as impressively as Purdue is some confirmation that their Week 1 effort against Louisville and thumping of Ohio weren’t fluky. Michigan rolls into West Lafayette this week and for some reason are laying 10, despite the fact that their red zone offense is horrendous, scoring touchdowns on only 1 of their 10 trips inside the 20 this season. I like Purdue to keep this close thanks to continued poor offensive execution from the Wolverines and the quick passing game to neutralize Michigan’s pressure.
Rutgers at Nebraska UNDER 48
The Rutgers Under is back, baby. A week after smoking Morgan State 65-0, we have a real line on Rutgers football, and we’re going to happily hop on another Under. Nebraska hasn’t been great this season and they just fired their AD almost exclusively because he hired Mike Riley. The Huskers are in trouble, just as a program overall, and Rutgers rolls in with a pretty good looking defense and I wouldn’t be surprised if this thing stays tight for a bit as both offenses sputter. I do think Nebraska wins this and avoids the disaster that would be a loss to the ‘Gers, but I love this Under (as I do in all Rutgers games).
Bowling Green at Middle Tennessee State (-7)
It’s officially time to fade the Falcons, folks. They’ve entered East Carolina territory in terms of me taking most any team against them. There is risk here, QB Brent Stockstill is questionable to start, and MTSU looked bad without him against Minnesota. However, Bowling Green has a singular offensive touchdown in two FBS games this season and I am happy to fade them even without Stockstill. If Stockstill plays, we’re stealing 3.5 points worth of value (this opened at 10.5).
Florida at Kentucky UNDER 44
I’m not sure there’s a number low enough for this game to make me consider the Over. Florida’s offense is a dumpster fire, provided it’s not a scramble drill Hail Mary situation. Kentucky’s defense looked rather nasty against South Carolina and their offense isn’t very good. These two teams are somewhat mirror images and barring the nightmare that is overtime I think we cruise to this Under.
Ohio at Eastern Michigan UNDER 52.5
The Bobcats’ offense might scare some off here, and that’s understandable. They have scored a decent bit and their defense has not exactly looked great in the first three games, including 42 points against Kansas a week ago. I get that. But Eastern Michigan’s offense is awful. I watched the entirety of their game against Rutgers and it was just a delight for a sick human like me that loves low scoring games, but for anyone else I’m sure it’s excruciating. They play really solid defense as well and I think they’ll keep the Bobcats in front of them and keep this thing to an Under.
TCU at Oklahoma State (-13)
The Pokes are really good. TCU isn’t. They aren’t bad, but this is a Oklahoma State squad that can absolutely carve teams up and a defense that’s better than maybe any we’ve seen in recent memory in Stillwater. TCU, on the other hand, looked good defensively against Arkansas, but the offense didn’t impress. I think the Horned Frogs will hang around for a bit and not allow the offensive onslaught the Pokes put up a week ago against Pitt, but Oklahoma State will pull away for another comfortable, wide margin win. Vegas hasn’t quite caught up with Oklahoma State and I’ll take them in most games against average teams laying under two touchdowns.
TCU at Oklahoma State UNDER 71.5
I almost gave these out in a parlay. Almost (we’ll get to a parlay play shortly), but instead will hand out separately, as a minor hedge. I think the Pokes can and will win this while coming Under, but I think the only way TCU really hangs in and covers is if they stifle this offense and slow the game down. This total has ballooned a full touchdown since opening and I think it’s a major overreaction and is now significant value.
Utah (-3.5) at Arizona
The Wildcats aren’t very good despite having two lopsided wins. UTEP is bad, as is Northern Arizona and in their lone game against quality competition they lost 19-16 to Houston. Arizona will also want to run the football in this one and while Kyle Whittingham’s boys might not be a dominant squad overall, they can still stop the run. I think the Utes eventually pull away on Friday night to a comfortable win against an overmatched and overvalued Arizona team.
Alabama at Vanderbilt (+19.5)/UNDER 43
You think I’d leave my beautiful ‘Dores off the pick sheet this week?! Oh no. Betting against Alabama terrifies me, but I like this Vandy team. They’ve got gumption and still play really good defense. If they get this cover, it’s because they hold the Tide’s offense in check, not because they score. So, my suggestion is to play the coordinated parlay and take the Under along with the points (shoutout to CG Technology books — like Cosmo — for still having 19.5 available) and pray that Saban’s squad doesn’t hit their stride this week in Nashville.
