Final Golden Globe Predictions: Lots of ‘like’s for ‘The Social Network’

01.14.11 7 years ago 12 Comments

AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Yes, it’s that time of year again. A time in Hollywood where the worlds of movies and television become one thanks to the incredible magic of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.  Whether the HFPA’s 68th Annual Golden Globe Awards are really a bellwether for the more prestigious Academy Awards honestly depends on the year.  This season?  Not so much, but it’s an excellent opportunity for stars from the big, small and even smaller screens to celebrate each other’s work, drink and be merry.  

(Well, at least until a little over two weeks from now when they do it all over again at the SAG Awards.)

As in past years, the battle for best picture has come down to the power and influence of two men: uber producer Scott Rudin and longtime awards maestro Harvey Weinstein.  With “True Grit” bizarrely left in the cold having received zero nominations, Rudin is pushing his critics’ wonder “The Social Network.”  On the other side of the battle field, Weinstein is firmly behind this year’s audience favorite, “The King’s Speech.”  Occasional collaborators (“never say never” with these two), but usual competitors, the New York based movie men are two of the fiercest awards season campaigners around.  And when there are only 80 or so voters for the Globes to influence as opposed to approximately 6,000 for the Oscars?  Well, we’d suggest getting out of the way of their crosshairs.  

The TV categories are always incredibly difficult for even the most seasoned television experts to pick.  That’s mostly because a majority of the HFPA voters cover the movies and not TV, but since they can all vote for the winners it leads to some interesting and sometimes perplexing picks.  In theory, acclaimed shows such as “Modern Family” and “Mad Men” should dominate the winner’s circle.  This Sunday evening, however, that might not be the case.

With that in mind, check out this pundit’s predictions for the 68th Annual Golden Globes.  

Best Picture – Drama

“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”

Winner: “The Social Network”
Upset Contenders: “The King’s Speech”
Lowdown:  If you speak to some HFPA watchers they will tell you that “Network” is going to win.  If you speak to other HFPA watchers they will tell you that “Speech” will win because Harvey Weinstein knows how to schmooze them better than anyone else in town.  It’s close for sure, but when it all comes down to it, more than anything, the HFPA do not like to be embarrassed.  And considering almost all the other critic’s groups in the country have picked “Network” for best picture.  They should do the same.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“Alice in Wonderland”
“The Kids are Alright”
“The Tourist”

Winner: “The Kids Are All Right”
Upset Contenders: “Alice in Wonderland”
Lowdown: A pretty dreadful list of contenders with “Kids” being the only worthy awards picture in the bunch.  However, word is the HFPA love “Alice in Wonderland” and there is a very slim chance they go with Disney’s $1 billion dollar hit.
Best Actor – Drama
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”
Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”

Winner: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Upset Contenders: Jesse Eisenberg, “Social Network” or James Franco, “127 Hours”
Lowdown:  If you’re an HFPA member and voting “Network” for picture you have to make sure to reward “King’s Speech” and this is where the organization tries to make everyone happy.  The very deserving Firth is pretty much a lock here, but if the “Network” love is legit, Eisenberg could sneak in or their longtime admiration for Franco could find him an unexpected winner as well.
Best Actress – Drama
Halle Berry, “Frankie and Alice”
Nicole Kidman, “The Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Winner: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Upset Contenders: None
Lowdown:  This is pretty much set in stone.  The HFPA adore Kidman, but did not like “Rabbit Hole.”  That pretty much seals the deal for Portman.
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”
Johnny Depp, “The Tourist”
Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs”
Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”

Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”
Upset Contenders: Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version” or Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”
Lowdown:  Another miserable category this year, but it does allow the HFPA to reward Johnny Depp one more time (he’s got nine nominations and only one win so far).  If for some reason Depp doesn’t win, it will be because there was more support for Giamatti or Spacey than expected. Like, a lot more.
Best Actress  – Musical or Comedy
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are Alright”
Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Angelina Jolie, “The Tourist”
Emma Stone, “Easy A”
Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are Alright”

Annette, Bening, “The Kids Are Alright”
Upset Contenders: Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right,” Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”
Lowdown:  Pretty much Bening’s to lose.  Anne Hathaway is the biggest competition, but the members were not big fans of “Love and Other Drugs” (as evidenced by the dramedy not making the Best Picture – Musical or Comedy category).
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Winner: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Upset Contenders: Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
Lowdown:  Awarding the Globe to Leo allows the HFPA to reward “The Fighter,” which they are big fans of.  Weaver would be the only nominee who could really surprise here.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Michael Douglas, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner, “The Town”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Winner: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Upset Contenders: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Lowdown: As much as they’d like to sympathetically bring cancer survivor Douglas to the stage (which would make for great TV by the way), it’s going to be hard for them to ignore Bale.  Again, they don’t like to be embarrassed.  80 people can form one pretty insecure group.
Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

Winner: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Upset Contenders: Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Lowdown: Fincher will win, but if there is a prevailing feeling monster hit “Inception” needs more recognition, Nolan could sneak in.
Best Screenplay
Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours”
Lisa Cholodenko, “The Kids are Alright”
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
David Sieber, “The King’s Speech”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

Winner: Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
Upset Contenders: Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours”
Lowdown: Pretty much a slam dunk for the former “West Wing” creator, but the HFPA also loved “127 Hours” and Boyle in particular.  This may be the only category where they can recognize the picture.
Best Animated Feature
“Despicable Me”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Toy Story 3”

Winner: “Toy Story 3”
Upset Contenders: Um, no.
Lowdown: Just book it.  Although we wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the Disney/Pixar table if DreamWorks’ “How to Train Your Dragon” wins instead.
Best Foreign Language Film
“The Concert”
“The Edge”
“I Am Love”
“In a Better World”

“I Am Love”
Upset Contenders: “The Concert”
Lowdown: Tougher call than in previous years, but critical acclaim and Tilda Swinton’s amazing performance should bring “I Am Love” the statue.  However, the Weinstein’s “The Concert” could be a possible upset player here too.
Best Original Song
“Bound to You,” “Burlesque”
“Coming Home,” “Country Song”
“I See the Light,” “Tangled”
“There’s a Place For Us,” “Dawn Treader”
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me,” “Burlesque”

Winner: “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me,” “Burlesque”
Upset Contenders: “I See the Light,” “Tangled”
Lowdown: “You Haven’t” songwriter Diane Warren was repped by longtime publicist Ronni Chasen who was murdered last month in an attack that left most of Hollywood in severe shock.  Add in the Cher factor and only “I See the Light” could upset the “Burlesque” ballad.
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland”
AR Rahman, “127 Hours”
Hans Zimmer, “”Inception”
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

Hans Zimmer, “Inception”
Upset Contenders: Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”
Lowdown: One of the few places they can reward “Inception.”  It’s also quite deserving and Zimmer was also a client of Chasen’s (it sounds callous, but sometimes it’s just how these things work out).
Best TV Series – Drama
“Boardwalk Empire”
“The Good Wife”
“Mad Men”
“The Walking Dead”

Winner:  “Boardwalk Empire”
Upset Contenders: “Mad Men”
Lowdown: The HFPA love Martin Scorsese.  The HFPA love HBO.  As good as “Mad Men” was last season, the new kid on the “Boardwalk” should take home the gold Sunday night.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Hugh Laurie, “House”

Winner: Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”
Upset Contenders: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Lowdown: Rule #1 when predicting HFPA TV voting: If there’s a movie star in the field it’s a good bet they’re gonna win.  Why? Well, most of the membership don’t cover television, but just film.  So, when they get a chance to vote for all the categories they tend to go with what they know.  That usually leads to some classy, if not surprising picks.  In this case, Buscemi over previous winners Jon Hamm and Michael C. Hall.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Piper Perabo, “Covert Affairs”
Katey Sagal, “Sons of Anarchy”
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”

Winner: Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
Upset Contenders: Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Lowdown: In an even less competitive category than last year Margulies wins again.
Best TV Series – Comedy
“30 Rock”
“The Big Bang Theory”
“The Big C”
“Modern Family”
“Nurse Jackie”

Winner: “Glee”
Upset Contenders: “Modern Family,” “30 Rock,” “The Big Bang Theory”
Lowdown:  It’s close between “Glee” and “Modern Family,” but we just think the HFPA can’t get enough of those singing and dancing teenagers.  
Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy

Toni Collette, “The United States of Tara”
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Laura Linney, “The Big C”
Lea Michele, “Glee”

Winner: Laura Linney, “The Big C”
Upset Contenders: Toni Collette, “The United States of Tara” or Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
Lowdown:  If you follow the HFPA’s unspoken movie star rule then Linney or Collette should win.  We think being the new kid on the Showtime block gives Linney the edge.
Best  Actor in a TV Series – Comedy

Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Steve Carell, “The Office”
Thomas Jane, “Hung”
Matthew Morrison, “Glee”
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”

Winner: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Upset Contenders: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Lowdown: Are the HFPA really going to honor Baldwin for the fourth time in five years for this role?  It makes more sense that Parsons breaks through and duplicates his Emmy win.  
Best Supporting Actor – Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for TV
Scott Caan, “Hawaii Five-0”
Chris Colfer, “Glee”
Chris Noth, “The Good Wife”
Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”
David Strathairn, “Temple Grandin”

Chris Colfer, “Glee”
Upset Contenders: Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family” or David Strathairn, “Temple Grandin”
Lowdown: Here’s the thing, somebody’s got to be the first group to recognize Colfer.  We say the HFPA are that group.  Just a hunch.
Best Supporting Actress – Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for TV

Hope Davis, “The Special Relationship”
Jane Lynch, “Gee”
Kelly MacDonald, “Boardwalk Empire”
Julia Stiles, “Dexter”
Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”
Winner: Kelly MacDonald, “Boardwalk Empire”
Upset Contenders: Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family” or Jane Lynch, “Glee”
Lowdown: We’re taking the “Boardwalk” train and going with Kelly MacDonald. It’s a hunch, but we’d also not be surprised if Lynch repeated her Emmy win here.
Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for TV
“The Pacific”
“Pillars of the Earth”
“Temple Grandin”
“You Don’t Know Jack”

“The Pacific”
Upset Contenders: “Carlos” or “You Don’t Know Jack”
Lowdown: Let’s be clear, the HFPA may love “Carlos” and it’s a credit to the organization’s overall taste that it made the cut, but they do not want to embarrass “Pacific” producers Tom Hanks and Steven Spielberg.  It’s that simple.
Best Actress in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for TV

Hayley Atwell, “Pillars of the Earth”
Claire Danes, “Temple Grandin”
Judi Dench, “Return to Cranford”
Romola Garai, “Emma”
Jennifer Love Hewitt, “The Client List”

Claire Danes, “Temple Grandin”
Upset Contenders: Um, no.
Lowdown: Just book it (and she’s winning the SAG Award for this one too).
Best Actor in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for TV
Idris Elba, “Luther”
Ian McShane, “Pillars of the Earth”
Al Pacino, “You Don’t Know Jack”
Dennis Quaid, “The Special Relationship”
Edgar Ramirez, “Carlos”

Winner: Al Pacino, “You Don’t Know Jack”
Upset Contenders: Edgar Ramirez, “Carlos”
Lowdown:  Former Cecil B. DeMille and 14-time nominee and two-time winner Pacino should repeat his Emmy Award win here. However, there is a slight chance Ramirez upsets so the HFPA can claim they were one of the few orgs to actually recognize “Carlos” in some way.

Have you entered HitFix’s Golden Globes Awards Pool yet?  You have until Sunday, January 15 at 3 PM EST, 12 Noon PST. The winner receives a brand new Flip Ultra HD video camera. You can also download a printable ballot of all the nominees for your own party or work pool here.

Who do you think is going to win at the Golden Globes this year? Share your thoughts below.

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