Ratings Analysis: Solid ‘Originals,’ sinking ‘S.H.I.E.L.D.’ and steady ‘Trophy Wife’

10.09.13 6 years ago 19 Comments
So far this week, there has been a lot of consistency, so I haven’t necessarily felt inclined to do any additional ratings analysis, but as I looked over the final figures for two nights of CW premieres, I decided I probably owe it to “Hart of Dixie” and “The Originals.” After all, I talked about “Lucky 7” and its 18-49 numbers came in under “The Originals” shortly before it was cancelled.
I’m sure I also have some things to say about the ongoing “S.H.I.E.L.D.” dropping and more.
So click through for the bulletpoints…
*** The thing I forgot was that when I did Fast Nationals on Monday, The CW’s numbers were inflated by Monday Night Football coverage in NYC, so you may still have the impression that “Beauty and the Beast” outdrew “Hart of Dixie” and that the two shows were equal in the 18-49 demographic. Wrong-o! After football was taken out of the equation, we were left with “Hart of Dixie” drawing 1.03 million viewers and doing a 0.4 in the key demo and “Beauty and the Beast” drawing 860,000 viewers and a 0.3 key demo rating. Now obviously, this means that New York viewers haven’t had the chance to watch, but we’re not talking about “Gossip Girl” here. To did a little deeper, “Hart of Dixie” did a 0.5 rating in The CW’s sweet spot of women 18-34, compared to the 0.3 for “Beauty and the Beast” in that demo. “Dixie” had a small advantage in all female demos, though the two shows tie if you look at slightly older skewing male demos, just in case The CW decides to care what 50-year-old men think. Ultimately, both shows were above what last year’s Monday luminaries did for The CW, but since we’re talking about “90210,” “The Carrie Diaries” and the aforementioned “Gossip Girl,” that’s only a moderate achievement. But improvement is improvement! And given that the “Hart of Dixie” premiere featured Josh Cooke, fans of the show should be relieved he didn’t kill it straight away. [I kid. Josh Cooke only kills new shows. He didn’t kill “Dexter.”] 
*** If the Monday CW premieres offered cause only for tempered enthusiasm, the Tuesday premieres gave the chance for the real thing. Anchoring a night and away from its TV sire, “The Originals” drew 1.92 million viewers and a 0.9 rating among adults 18-49. Given that “The Originals” did a 1.0 key demo rating airing after “The Vampire Diaries” last Thursday, that’s really impressive. Want more impressive? “Supernatural” drew 2.59 million viewers and a 1.2 rating among adults 18-49, which is significantly above the 1.85 million viewers and 0.8 key demo rating for last fall’s premiere. [Last year, “Supernatural” premiered alone. The second episode, which aired after the huge “Arrow” launch, drew 2.51 million viewers and a 1.0 in the key demo.] That’s pretty outstanding for a drama in its ninth season, a drama starting in a new time period and a drama airing with an only semi-compatible lead-in. It happens that “Supernatural” skews more male than a lot of The CW’s shows, which isn’t surprising, so while only 0.1 separate the two shows among women 18-34 and women 18-49, there’s a gap of 0.3 and 0.4 among men in those two demos. Since The CW mostly was aiming for improvements over “Hart of Dixie” and “Emily Owens, MD,” Tuesdays are a win. Improvement for Wednesday will be a longer shot, since I don’t think The CW really expects “Arrow” to approach last year’s premiere numbers and “Tomorrow People” is probably going to fall short of the “Supernatural” retention. Probably.
*** Time to check in on where “Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” is dropping this week! In Final Nationals, it ended up with 7.87 million viewers and a 2.9 rating among adults 18-49, a slight hiccup up from Fast Nationals. The joke, though, is that while the Fast National drop was from a 3.1 last week to a 2.8 this week, last week’s Final Nationals ticked up even more, to a 3.3, so instead of a drop of 0.3, it’s actually a drop of 0.4 from last week’s Nationals. Anybody care? Anybody? Fine. Whatever. Where are the drops coming? Fortunately, that’s easy. Among adults 25-54, “S.H.I.E.L.D.” was only down 0.2 week-to-week. Amond adults 18-34, it was down by 0.7. And among women 18-34, was was only down 0.2 week-to-week, while among men 18-34, it was down… wait for it… a full 1.1. I could be misreading, but it’s actually possible that “S.H.I.E.L.D.” was UP this week among women 18-49 and it was flat among women 25-54. So I know this isn’t going to be especially shocking, but you know why “S.H.I.E.L.D.” is dropping? Young men aren’t watching live nearly as much. Because somebody is sure to ask if ABC is worried, the answer continues to be, “No.” With Live+3 DVR numbers, “S.H.I.E.L.D.” still did a 4.9 key demo rating in its second week, along with 12+ million viewers. All’s well. Or well enough.
*** I’m enjoying finding missing week-to-week viewers, so let’s look at “Chicago Fire,” NBC’s Tuesday hit that suddenly became a bit less of a hit when you weaken its “Voice” lead-in. “Chicago Fire” averaged 7.43 million viewers and a 2.1 rating among adults 18-49 this week, so nobody’s worried there. And, as I look over the numbers, “Chicago Fire” had bigger drops as you expand the age range order. Among adults 18-34, it only went from a 1.8 to a 1.6, for example. But the drops are pretty consistently spread out, which I guess makes sense since “The Voice” has a wide-spanning audience. 
*** Last week, I put a lot of effort into finding the missing “Trophy Wife” viewers as that comedy dwindled. But guess what? Good news! “Trophy Wife” didn’t drop this week. With 4.77 million viewers and a 1.4 rating among adults 18-49? It was flat! Since “S.H.I.E.L.D.” and “The Goldbergs” were down, that’s a total victory for “Trophy Wife” and while it doesn’t suddenly turn “Trophy Wife” into anything resembling a success, it puts off any imperative to move it or cancel it. By one week. And the gap between “Goldbergs” and “Trophy Wife” is shrinking in the key demo. It was 0.8 last week and it’s 0.5 now. On the charts I’m looking at now, the gap is smallest among women 12-34, where it’s only a 0.1 rating. The largest gap is among men 18-49, where it’s a 0.6.
*** This week’s gap between “Dads” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine”? “Dads” drew 3.1 million viewers to the 3.34 million for “Brooklyn,” while doing a 1.3 key demo rating compared to the 1.5 key demo rating for “Brooklyn.” I keep repeating this: FOX doesn’t have to kill “Dads.” That’s FOX’s business. But I’m absolutely certain that if FOX doesn’t do anything to protect or boost “Brooklyn,” this is where the numbers are going to stay.  
*** Thing that currently isn’t a problem at all, but that may someday be a problem and if problems set in, you heard it here: “The Blacklist” is losing female viewers from “The Voice” in large numbers. Everything would lose female viewers from “The Voice” in large numbers. But “The Blacklist” is losing young female viewers at a rate faster than the rate at which it’s losing young male viewers. Last week, the women 18-49 drop between the shows was 6.7 to a 4.1, while this week it was from a 6.3 to a 3.4. Among men 18-49, last week the “Voice”-to-“Blacklist” drop was 3.5 to a 3.1 and this week, it was 3.4 to a 2.9. 
Anyway… I’ve been staring at numbers for too long. 

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