MMA

UFC 200 Predictions And Live Discussion: Miesha Tate May Have Met Her Match In Amanda Nunes

Quick, fight fans! Let’s watch UFC 200 before anything else bad happens to it. The mega-card suffered a lot of changes and set backs, but everything should be locked into place now. The fights start at 6:30 p.m. ET with prelims on Fight Pass, then the prelims continue on to Fox Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET. The main card is only on pay per view, starting at 10 p.m. ET.

Join us for a live discussion of all the action for what should be a great night of fights. First, though, let’s take a look at the Uproxx Sports Staff Predictions.

2016 Important Results:

Jessica: 123-96-4 (56 percent)
Burnsy: 91-91-3 (51 percent)
Ryan: 5-1 (83 percent)
Jason: 34-24-1 (58 percent)
Bill: 9-3 (75 percent)
Jackman: 7-5 (58 percent)
Enrique: 7-5 (58 percent)
Jamie: 16-13-1 (55 percent)
Justin: 13-4 (76 percent)
Marty: 20-12-1 (62 percent)
Jared: 13-11 (54 percent)
Parker: 3-4 (43 percent)
Team Davis: 68-50-3 (57 percent)

Lightweight – Jim Miller vs Takanori “The Fireball Kid” Gomi

Jessica: The only way Gomi wins is Miller is so decrepit he actually gets hit with an overhand that Gomi’s throwing from UFC 100. I really hope that isn’t the case, so I’ll take Miller to out grapple Gomi, get him down, beat him up a bit and sink a RNC in the second.

Bill: Miller really seems to have the grappling advantage here. So while I hate to pick against The Fireball Kid, I’ll take Miller by second round submission.

Jason: Both these guys are past their primes, but Gomi moreso than Miller. I can see Gomi getting subbed, but not before he rocks Miller. It’ll be a fun fight, and I’m picking Gomi because I’m never not going to pick Gomi. Damn the overall prediction percentage.

Burnsy: FIREBALL! FIREBALL! FIREBALL! Sorry, I thought I was ordering shots at an awful college bar for a moment. Whatever, as I always say, we pick who we drink, so I take Fireball.

Middleweight – Gegard “The Dreamcatcher” Mousasi vs Thiago “de Lima Marreta” Santos

Jessica: Who wants to cash in that “dudes what lost to Uriah Hall” sweepstakes? Mousasi is probably a better fighter than Santos, but he’s always got at least a 45% chance of pooping the bed and turning in a performance reminiscent of a drunk hobo stuck in a garbage bag. I’m taking Santos to land some hard body kicks, get Gegard’s tummy hurting and finish with a swarm of punches. Santos wins by second round TKO.

Bill: Mousasi needs this win badly to not only stay in the rankings, but to remain relevant. I think he’ll have the edge in his mindset and sometimes that’s all you need. Mousasi by third round TKO.

Jason: Mousasi is one of my favorite fighters and Santos didn’t have too much time to prepare for someone of his caliber, so I’m going Mousasi via neat KO.

Burnsy: I’m picking Gegard Mousasi because of all the guys in the UFC right now, at least those that I can think of, he has the most Game of Thrones name possible.

Lightweight – Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez vs Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon

Jessica: If Lauzon can’t horribly cut or submit Diego in the first, it’s going to be at least ten minutes of Sanchez rushing forward, and that’s not good for J-Lau. Sanchez wins via third round TKO.

Bill: This fight is a real throwback and I’m a little sad it didn’t happen on Friday’s TUF finale. Sanchez has always been a better fighter and that’s still the case. Sanchez by second round submission.

Jason: Diego Sanchez via controversial decision.

Burnsy: It’s a battle of the ages for these win one/lose one fighters. Joe is set to win based on my time-honored logic, so let’s roll with that.

Lightweight – “Super” Sage Northcutt vs Enrique “Wasabi” Marin

Jessica: Sage’s opponent is the only person on the card without a Wikipedia page, which is uh, not great. Northcutt wins by first round KO.

Bill: Northcutt looks like a trillion goddamn bucks right now. He’s going to make mincemeat out of Marin.

Jason: I pick Marin to handily defeat Northcutt just so I can rile up Jessica.

Burnsy: As the one person in the entire world who called Sage’s first loss in the UFC (no citation necessary), I will double down. I like Sage and think he’s a genuinely nice dude with a bright future. But my man needs to pay his dues, fam. He gets a loss here as well, and that should be all the humble pie that Hunkenstein needs to eat before going on a 10-fight win streak. (Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Sage gets the easiest matchup on this “Greatest Card of All-Time.” So, he’s probably going to win easily.)

Bantamweight – TJ Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao

Jessica: Dillashaw has changed a whole heck of a lot since he lost to Assuncao in 2013. Plus, Assuncao is coming off a broken ankle, which probably isn’t the best against a guy with the kind of movement TJ uses (Yeah, I know Cruz had all his leg parts rot and fall off and he returned to beat TJ at his own game, but c’mon, Dom is the best). TJ is gonna light up Assuncao a lot and unload a fifty-thousand punch combo to get the win. Dillashaw by third round TKO.

Bill: UFC 200 seems pretty heavy on matches with known names going up against relative unknowns, which is fine by me. Dillashaw can use a win and I’m pretty confident he’ll get one here.

Jason: Dillashaw should take Assuncao and make it look easy, right? MMA Math makes that a foregone conclusion, right? You can’t pick anyone but Dillashaw, right?

Burnsy: Ass-on-cow probably doesn’t stand a chance here, but that has been my biggest mistake with my picks over the last year. I’ll take my man Raph to get the job done and secure the title shot against Cruz (which he will lose, of course).

Welterweight – Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks vs Kelvin Gastelum

Jessica: Hendricks is training with a nutritionist that is telling him it’s okay to eat fast food, but just the burgers, skip the fries. He will probably miss weight by 12 pounds and be a complete mess. Gastelum wins by second round submission.

Bill: Johny, man, what the hell happened to your hair? The Bigg Rigg isn’t running so well these days and this will be the first fight of the night where someone we know gets taken down by someone we’re not as familiar with. If Hendricks makes it out of the first round, I’ll be surprised.

Jason: Last time Hendricks fought I wrote about how he was too in love with his hands, and had poopy head movement which would lead to him getting beat up by Stephen Thompson. Kelvin Gastelum is game, but not Stephen Thompson. I think Bigg Rigg will go back to his wrestling to set up his heavy hands and get the decision.

Burnsy: This one hurts. Hendricks was the guy I wanted to be a long-reigning champ, knocking f*ckers out with that meat-club hand of his for years to come. That is, until it was time for MY MAN Kelvin Gastelum to step in, win the title, and then have a 10-year feud with MY MAN Gunni Nelson that results in annual title changes and epic five-round brawls. Didn’t really work out that way for ol’ Bigg Rigg. Oh well, still love the dude, but my money is on Gastelum to keep climbing the ladder to his first title shot and eventual reign.

Bantamweight – “Alpha” Cat Zingano vs Juliana “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena

Jessica: I’m slightly nervous for Cat, since she’s been out for so long. However, Khabib and Dom Cruz have both shown that long layoffs sometimes don’t really matter. If Pena was more of a hyper-aggressive attacker, I’d give her a much better chance, but I think Zingano will roll with whatever Juliana throws her way. Cat wins by third round TKO.

Bill: If everything goes according to plan, this is a good tune-up match for Zingano. I’m very much pulling for her, so I’ll pick her to win as well. I think she’ll get a first round submission for some reason.

Jason: Welcome back, Cat! She’s been one of my favorite fighters for a long time, so I hope she can come back strong. I don’t doubt her motivation, but she’s had a lot of stuff happen to her, and distractions and a long layoff aren’t good, especially against Peña. This is a good fight, and I think Peña takes it.

Burnsy: I’m picking Zingano because I still feel bad for her that her whole career was derailed by injury, when she should have been the one to lose to Ronda Rousey in humiliating fashion, when it ended up being Miesha Tate. Oh well, back on the horse, Cat, and maybe you can get a title shot before we get the ROWDY ONE back in beast form.

Heavyweight – Cain Velasquez vs Travis “Hapa” Browne

Jessica: Hopefully Cain has been training and not just in cryogenic storage, trying to heal. I’m confident that regardless of the altitude, Velasquez will destroy Browne without much difficulty. Cain wins by second round TKO.

Bill: It’s been way, way too long since we’ve seen a Cain Velasquez fight. Again, I badly want him to take this fight, so I’m picking with my heart. Second round KO sounds about right.

Jason: This is sea-level Cain with a healthy camp. How can you pick against him? Cain via TKO in a 2-round war.

Burnsy: I don’t just want Cain to win this, nor do I just want to pick him to win. I want Cain to make this a statement fight by demolishing Browne in such a way that Hapa reconsiders his career. I do not like Travis Browne. I would like to see the soul knocked out of him.

Interim Featherweight Title – Jose Aldo Junior vs Frankie “The Answer” Edgar

Jessica: How will Aldo show up in this fight? Will be he super tentative, scared of getting knocked out again? Or will he want to prove himself and come out ultra-aggro, looking to destroy Frankie as quick as possible? If he’s more reserved, I give him a much better chance of winning than if he just blitzes right out of the gate. Ultimately, though, I’m picking Frankie to win this. If Aldo blitzes, I think Edgar clips him early. If Aldo takes his time, I think Frankie will grind him out slowly. I’m going to take Edgar to win by second round TKO.

Bill: I think Aldo gets back on the right track here, because if he doesn’t, it’s pretty much all over for him. Jose by decision.

Jason: My “predictions” are always based on what I want to happen and my gut, so I believe Frankie wins here so he can finally take on Conor McGregor and beat the Irishman with takedowns from hell. I love Jose. LOVE him. But this is Frankie’s time.

Burnsy: I think Jose is going to win, so I’m picking him. I won’t be surprised at all if Edgar wins, because he’s a badass. The only thing I care about now is that Conor shuts up and defends his damn title for once instead of chasing pointless ego matches. But yeah, best of luck against the No. 5-ranked lightweight that you already lost to, bud.

Light Heavyweight – Daniel Cormier vs Anderson “The Spider” Silva

Jessica: wat. I’m using up my CHAOS vote later in these picks, so I’ll go with brains and say that DC hurls Silva around before locking up a submission. Cormier wins by second round submission.

Burnsy: Yeah, so, this is weird. For starters, replacing a guy busted for PEDs with a guy who has recently been busted for PEDs is a bold idea, because I can’t wait for the post-fight news that Silva failed a drug test. That said, DC should win this just based on being healthy and conditioned for the fight. Worst case scenario: Silva wins and is busted. Actually, I am pulling for that. Burn the whole f*cking machine down.

Bill: I think the smart money is on DC just wrecking shop here, which is absolutely what should and will happen. But if anyone can prove everyone in the world wrong, it’s the G.D. Spider. I’m intensely interested in this fight, but I think Cormier wins easily in the second round.

Jason: Nghhhhhhh I love Anderson so much and I want him to go full- Forrest Griffin mode on Cormier… But I don’t think it will happen. I think we’re probably going to see Silva get taken down like we never have before, and I think Cormier could potentially knock him out. That said, Anderson with the round 2 TKO. You can’t make me predict against him!

Heavyweight – Brock Lesnar vs Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt

Jessica: Hunt hits way too hard. Brock gets put to sleep in the first. Mark by walkoff KO.

Bill: There’s no way this fight makes it out of the first round, either way. I’m dying for Brock to win, but he hates getting hit, especially in the face, so I don’t think it’s in the cards following a five-year layoff. Hunt by first round KO.

Jason: I feel like I have to do pushups before this fight. I feel like I have to do pushups before writing my prediction. I want to tear my shirt off in front of a roaring fire and scream, “MARK HUNT VIA VICIOUS KO!”

Burnsy: I thought it was funny how during Thursday’s Smackdown there were UFC 200 commercials with the original main event. It was almost like the WWE was trolling in a way that they could say, “Hey, it’s the cable company, not us.” And I know it wasn’t the WWE’s doing, but it was fun to imagine that, because the eventual reveal of Brock facing Randy Orton at Summer Slam was dull and forced me to watch Corey Graves talk, and I don’t like doing that. So where was I? Ah yes, this “fight.” In my make-believe scenario of the WWE enjoying the exposure it gets from Brock “saving” the UFC’s big event, the only real way for the UFC to come out on top is if Brock loses. If he wins, he’s back in the WWE to gloat, so what’s the point? At least WHEN Hunt wins, he can get a title shot as the guy who sent Brock packing. Knock his head off, Mark.

Bantamweight Title – Miesha “Cupcake” Tate vs Amanda “Lioness” Nunes

Jessica: Tate is a better overall fighter, but Nunes is a good early finisher. If she can land something big early, she’ll put Miesha away. I’m going to give in to chaos and say Nunes wins by first round submission, mostly so that if Ronda really does get an immediate title fight whenever she comes back, it’ll be against someone with no connection to her.

Bill: I think Tate retains and sets up rematches with Holm and Rousey. Or maybe I’ve just been writing about pro wrestling for too long.

Jason: Nunes is a solid fighter, but Miesha has always been good, and she’s at her best here. She’ll submit Nunes in the 3rd with an RNC.

Burnsy: I’m picking Nunes to win because it’s great for the division to show that there’s so much talent, at least before Ronda returns to reclaim her belt and then probably retire. However, I’d love to see Tate defend and then be humiliated by Ronda one last time.

Performance of the Night

Jessica: Hunt, Super Sage

Bill: Velasquez, Hunt

Jason: Hunt, Tate

Burnsy: Gastelum, Aldo

Fight of the Night

Jessica: Sanchez vs. Lauzon

Bill: Mousasi vs. Santos

Jason: Sanchez vs. Lauzon

Burnsy: Hendricks vs. Gastelum

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