Today, Donald Trump signed an order changing, yet again, the thrust of NASA’s mission. Normally, this is just political rigamarole and of more annoyance to space wonks and policy fans than anybody else. But this time around, there are some clear, and potentially serious, consequences to what Trump is trying to do — send astronauts back to the Moon and eventually to Mars.
- NASA, under Obama, was focused on Earth: If you want a full look at Obama’s approach to space, you can find it in his NASA Authorization Act, but essentially, Obama was in no great rush and was as interested in Earth as he was in Mars, funding climate science and other work in addition to developing technologies for a long-term Mars mission. This was a switch from the Bush-era NASA, which was working on Constellation, which planned to spend more time on the Moon as part of a longer-term plan to go to Mars.
- Trump more or less just told NASA to dust off its Bush-era plans: Trump’s orders essentially revive the Constellation program, although it will likely involve much more of a private spaceflight component, since Trump’s pick for NASA administrator, James Bridenstine is very much pro-business, and not an engineer or scientist. He’s also a climate change denier, so many are worried that NASA’s excellent work in that area is about to come to an end.
- NASA is in a better place to execute Constellation, but it was a flawed program: During the Bush administration, billions was spent on Ares I, which ultimately didn’t pan out. However, it does have Orion, a successfully tested crew vehicle, and in theory it could be back on the moon within a decade. But there are very real medical questions about how long humans can remain in space, and building a moonbase, not to mention establishing regular traffic back and forth between the Moon as a staging ground to go to Mars, has a lot of question marks. And it may all be pointless without more advanced climate science work to help us understand the weather, since rocket launches are finicky things.
- And all of this is under threat anyway: Republicans love NASA, perhaps because its work directly benefits Republican strongholds, but there’s also this tax bill you may have heard about that cuts funding across the board. NASA won’t be able to buy moon boots, let alone a rocket to the moon, if its budget gets cut.
In other words, Trump can insist this is a job-creating move, as he does in the below clip. But unless he backs that executive order with money, NASA isn’t going anywhere.