For the second straight week, we fell victim to a brutal beat on a total. The Ravens and Vikings were well on their way toward an Under result until Baltimore scored its first touchdown of the game with 0:00 on the clock. From there, the team was forced to kick an utterly meaningless extra point and that pushed the total to 40 which was one half-point more than we could handle in this space.
Fortunately, our other selections performed quite well and that led to yet another winning week. It might not be sustainable to fire off winners at a 60 percent clip but, in short, that is exactly what we’ve done to this point. Before we get to the Week 8 slate, let’s check in on the results.
- Last Week: 3-2
- Season: 21-14
Let’s get greedy.
Vikings and Browns UNDER 19 points in the first half
There is nothing quite like rooting for abject sadness in England. This is a 9:30 a.m. ET kick-off between two teams that aren’t scaring anyone offensively and, honestly, the biggest fear is a ghastly pick-six from DeShone Kizer or whoever is playing quarterback for Cleveland. We’ll roll with the first half under as a more “true” outcome given that both teams could come out of the gate slowly but they couldn’t make this number low enough for me to avoid it.
Panthers and Bucs OVER 46 points
Yes, you are reading that right. We haven’t given an Over pick in several weeks but the stars aligned on this one. Both Carolina and Tampa Bay are 4-1 to the Over in the past five games and, well, the Bucs have been brutal defensively. In fact, Tampa Bay ranks dead last in defensive DVOA and even Carolina’s sometimes maddening offense should be able to take advantage. Luke Kuechly may return for the Panthers, fortifying that defense, but Jameis Winston and company should be able to get into the mid-20’s and that is all we need.
Texans and Seahawks UNDER 23 points in the first half
Deshaun Watson is the toast of the NFL but the Seahawks defense is something entirely different than what he has seen. The Texans are fully capable of scoring in a hurry, making this a scary proposition but Seattle is used to getting off to slow offensive starts and that plays into our hands here. It may not be the most enjoyable sweat in the world but this feels like the right side in a game that should be highly competitive.
Steelers and Lions UNDER 45.5 points
Our one “traditional” full-game Under pick is here and it makes sense. Pittsburgh’s defense has been incredibly stout (No. 2 in DVOA) and, stunningly, Detroit’s hasn’t been much worse (No. 7 in DVOA). There is something scary in riding on an Under with these two quarterbacks and the presence of players like Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell but, to me, this feels like a slug-fest and a number that is a few points too high because of reputations. Take advantage.
Broncos and Chiefs UNDER 21.5 points in the first half
Unders on Monday Night Football have been dicey but we’re talking the first half to fight against that. Kansas City has been awesome offensively and that is the concern, but the Broncos are stout on the defensive side of the ball and should be able to game plan heavily to slow Andy Reid’s bunch. Oh, and it isn’t as if Denver’s offense is terrifying me here. Look for conservative mindsets on both sides in the early going and a first half total we can trust.
