Hi fight fans, we’ve got a good looking card here in Chicago. UFC on Fox 16 starts at 4:15 PM ET with Fight Pass early prelims, then regular prelims at 6PM on Fox and the main card at 8PM ET. There’s a title fight on free TV, which is really cool, so let’s jump into the predictions!
Important Standings of Note:
Jessica: 454-299-4 (60%)
Burnsy: 459-281-5 (62%)
Vince: 213-139-2 (60%)
Ryan: 10-5-1 (66%)
Danny: 161-77-1 (67%)
Spilled: 81-60-2 (57%)
Sydnie: 16-12 (57%)
Chris: 44-15-2 (74%)
NY Ric: 36-26-1 (57%)
Ghost: 6-7 (46%)
Seth: 32-15 (68%)
Biss: 41-39-1 (51%)
Jared: 80-45-1 (64%)
Melanie: 29-11 (73%)
Welterweight – Zak Cummings vs “Nonstop Action-Packed” Dominique Steele
Jessica: The only thing I know about Dom Steele is that he once did this incredibly disgusting thing during a Bellator event. With that being said, I’m taking him to win because that’s more interesting than anything Cummings has ever done. Steele takes this by decision.
Burnsy: With all due respect to Mr. Steele, I saw this matchup and my first thought was, “Holy shit, they booked an intergender match!” And I can make that mistake and not feel bad because I am a man named Ashley. That said, when you have a nickname like “Nonstop Action-Packed” you better bring the damn thunder in your UFC debut, and I’m hesitant to believe we’ll see that with a guy who has lost 5 fights. Instead, I’m gonna give Cummings the Gunni Bump (trademark pending) and say he’s winning, because in his last fight he lost to my No. 1 guy Gunnar Nelson, and that means he has been blessed with a new understanding of fighting. Also, this is the most I’ve ever written about the first fight of an event.
Jared: I’m not incredibly familiar with Dominique Steele, but Sherdog informs me that his nickname is, no joke, “Non-Stop Action Packed.” That is not a nickname, Dominique, that is an intro paragraph. It has more syllables than your first and last names, for Christ’s sake! Do you honestly expect me to believe that anyone actually referred to you as such growing up?
“Non-Stop Action Packed, you run upstairs and brush your teeth before bed.”
“Mrs. Payne, Non-Stop Action Packed just stole my bag of milk!”
“N.S.A.P…N.S.A.P! It’s aboot time to hit the ol’ dusty trail, ya hoser!!” (not sure why he’s Canadian in this example)
So yeah, Cummings.
Bantamweight – Jessamyn “The Gun” Duke vs Elizabeth Phillips
Jessica: Oh dip, amateur night rematch! While both women are on losing skids, Duke’s had a rougher go, taking a stoppage loss her last time out, while Phillips has a pair of split decision defeats. I think Duke finally puts it together and takes out Phillips again, this time with a second round submission.
Burnsy: Is this the first ever UFC women’s pink slip fight? Both fighters are on a two-fight skid, but I doubt that even if Duke loses a third she’d get the boot. She’s one of Rousey’s girls, after all, so she could probably lose 10 straight and still sneak into the Top 5. That said, Duke needs to stop talking about Rousey’s upcoming fight and focus on her own struggles. I think she wins here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bethe Correia shows up and distracts her for the roll-up and 3 count. Wait, what?
Melanie: Phillips by TKO
Jared: It’s never easy to pick a clear favorite in a “Loser Leaves Town” match, but I’d sooner lose a foot to diabetes than pick anyone from Glendale Fight Club *not* named Ronda Rousey. I don’t have diabetes, but you get what I’m saying.
Lightweight – Ramsey Nijem vs Andrew Holbrook
Jessica: Holbrook has beaten exactly zero dudes of note in his career. Nijem has at least knocked off Beneil Dariush, which is a win that’s looking better and better. I’m taking Nijem to get a decision win here.
Burnsy: I always thought the purpose of these free fights on Fox should be to showcase the best the UFC has to offer to people who love free TV events so maybe they’ll say, “You know what? I’ll pay $50 to watch the next PPV.” Anyway, everyone meet Andrew Holbrook, he’s going to lose his debut to Nijem.
Jared: Nijem. Holbrook should have the clear grappling advantage, but he has shit for standup and is fighting on short notice against a much more seasoned fighter in Nijem.
Lightweight – Daron “Detroit Superstar” Cruickshank vs “The” James Krause
Jessica: Krause is a solid grappler, but Hermione’s Cat is too good at kicking and boxing. Cruicks wins with a second round TKO, so long as Krause doesn’t gouge out his eyeballs.
Burnsy: THE James Krause has lost 3 of his last four and Detroit Superstar hasn’t been all that super either. This fight has the potential to be the Dud of the Night or pretty solid. Either way, I’ll take Cruickshank to be better than THE.
Melanie: Cruickshank by unanimous decision
Jared: “The Detroit Superstar” hasn’t looked great lately, having only won 1 out of his last 4 fights and coming off an absolute torching at the hands of Beneil Dariush. That said, he’s done more to impress me in the past than James Krause ever has, so I’ll take him to showcase some flashy kicks en route to a decision win.
Bantamweight – Eddie Wineland vs Bryan “Kid Lightning” Caraway
Jessica: NOBODY LIKES YOU, BRYAN CARAWAY, GO AWAY FOREVER. Wineland is going to punch Bryan in the face a jillion times and win a first round TKO.
Burnsy: It’s a battle of “I don’t know, maybe him?” I’ll take Caraway over Wineland’s win one/lose one path to averageness.
Melanie: Wineland by split decision
Jared: Bryan Caraway is a douche. A DOUCHE. I want Wineland to put the stamp on Mr. Tate so, so badly, but there are just so many questions hanging over his head. He hasn’t fought in over a year since having his jaw shattered by Johnny Eduardo and was talking about retirement in that time off, whereas Caraway is one of the more consistent fighters in the bantamweight division. I’ll take Mr. Tate to win a grapple-heavy decision, but would be more than thrilled to see the complete opposite happen. Because Bryan Caraway is A DOUCHE.
Welterweight – Kenny Robertson vs Ben “Killa B” Saunders
Jessica: Robertson has some solid wins under his belt, but he won’t have an answer for the devastating clinch knees of the Killa B. Saunders wins with a second round KO. LETS MUTHERF*KERS!
Burnsy: I think Ben is the best, so obviously I’m going to pick him, but I really like this fight because he’s had two easier fights to get back in the UFC groove and now he faces Robertson, who has won three in a row. This will be a tough one for Saunders, but he’ll win because he’s the best in the world.
Jared: “Killa B” has never been submitted and PUTS DUDES AWAY on the feet. Robertson, on the other hand, is one tough, crafty sumbitch who easily has the bigger wins coming into this fight and is probably the better wrestler. I’ll take Saunders, but this is as close to a coin flip as you’re going to get.
Lightweight – Jim Miller vs Danny “Last Call” Castillo
Jessica: Miller’s been struggling recently, but I’m still taking him over dumb ol’ Danny Castillo. Miller’s overall grappling is better, but I think Castillo’s wrestling will be enough to keep the fight standing. No matter, Jimmy will just punch up Danny’s mug and take a decision win.
Burnsy: “Hello Fox viewers, here are two more fighters who have lost two in a row and could be fired if they lose tonight. It’s the best we have to offer!” Anyway, Miller has lost to Dariush and Cerrone in his last two fights, so I’ll give him the bounceback nod.
Melanie: Miller by unanimous decision
Jared: Danny Castillo is the poor man’s Jim Miller.
Light Heavyweight – Gian Villante vs “Filthy” Tom Lawlor
Jessica: This is classic wrestling booking. Lawlor lost to Weidman a few years ago, so now he’s getting revenge against Weidman’s training partner. I’ll say that Reebok’s Filthy Thomas has been learning from reDRagon and will knock out Villante with a Bobby Fish-style roundhouse in the third round.
Burnsy: I’ll take Villante to uncork Lawlor’s head. After all, he’s basically named after an Expendables villain.
Melanie: Villante by unanimous decision
Jared: I’ll be honest, I thought Tom Lawler had retired. Fighting up a weight class for the first time in 2 years, though? You’d have to be insane to pick “Filthy” here, even against a guy as basic as Villante.
Lightweight – Joe Lauzon vs Takanori “The Fireball Kid” Gomi
Jessica: Batboy vs Blockhead! Creepy Joe vs Trash Man! Lauzon has had some bumps in the road recently, but Gomi’s basically been driven into a wall compared to his halcyon days in PRIDE. Gomi does have good power in his hands, though, and could catch Joe with a big enough punch to ruin his night. However, I don’t see that happening. Lauzon should try to keep Gomi at distance until Joe can wrangle him to the ground and go to work on the mat. Lauzon takes a second round submission.
Burnsy: This event really is a collection of guys that the complacent fight fan might have heard of. I guess that can be fun if they live up to their mild notoriety. So I’ll take Lauzon to do to Gomi what Myles Jury did last time.
Melanie: Lauzon by submission
Jared: I’m equally parts excited and nervous for this fight, because Lauzon and Gomi have long been two of my favorite fighters and I can’t stand to see either of them lose. Lauzon got the piss beat out of him by Al Iaquinta in his last fight, but he still has enough in the tank to take Gomi down and submit him, likely after “The Fireball Kid” overcommits on one of his wild, looping punches.
Lightweight – Edson “Junior” Barboza vs Paul “The Irish Dragon” Felder
Jessica: Both guys love to spin and ruin an opponent’s memories of childhood through shocking head trauma. That could mean a tepid affair as both guys are too wary of each other’s power, but I don’t see that going down at all, mostly because it would make me cry too much. Barboza is a strong Kick Guy, but I expect Paul to get all up in his face, pressure Edson and stifle him. Barboza doesn’t like that, and his chin is slightly suspect, so Felder will uncork another crazy knockout. Paul wins by second round KO.
Burnsy: Is that my undefeated fighter alarm blaring in the distance? What a test for the 10-0 (2-0) Felder, and I’m just gonna say f*ck it and give him the win.
Melanie: Barboza by TKO
Jared: I’ll give Barboza the technical edge, but after seeing Barboza get dropped by a “Cowboy” Cerrone jab, I think he’s a little too chinny to avoid Felder’s insane power for 15 minutes. Felder.
Bantamweight – Miesha “Cupcake” Tate vs Jessica “Evil” Eye
Jessica: Nobody likes Miesha Tate, right? Eye wins by decision on the grounds that she isn’t Miesha Tate.
Burnsy: I love Jessica Eye’s fire. I really want her to succeed and help end this boring idea that Tate is really the best lingering candidate to take on Rousey after the champ dismantles another woman. I’m tired of Tate. She loses.
Melanie: Eye by split decision
Jared: If the same Miesha Tate: Wannabe Boxer that showed up against Sara McMann in the first round of their fight shows up, I really like Eye’s chances of gritting this out. But if the same Miesha Tate: Gritty Grappler that showed up against McMann in the 2nd and 3rd rounds shows up, I see her taking a clear cut decision. The fact is, Tate’s faced way better competition and been pushed to the brink on far more occasions than Eye, and I don’t see her risking another shot at Rousey by standing with Eye. Tate loves getting thrashed by Ronda Rousey the same way I think I’d love getting thrashed by, well, Miesha Tate, and she should take this.
Bantamweight Title – TJ Dillashaw vs Renan Barao
Jessica: More of the first fight. TJ’s been splitting time with Papa Bang and the rest of the Alpha Males, so his striking should be solid. Monkey Style is going to be too much for the hobgoblin again. Tyler Jeffrey retains via third round TKO.
Burnsy: Barao getting that belt back, y’all. It’s gonna be a good one.
Melanie: Dillashaw by unanimous decision
Jared: Just over a year ago, I went on record saying that TJ Dillashaw was a dead man, little more than cannon fodder for the legacy of Renan Barao, and now here I am, asking myself how does Barao win this fight? The answer: He doesn’t. T Dilly gon’ pick up where he left off with that ass-whipping.
Performance of the Night
Jessica: Lauzon, Dillashaw
Burnsy: Saunders, Barao
Fight of the Night
Jessica: Felder vs Barboza
Burnsy: Robertson vs Saunders