Who Will Win And Who Should Win At The 2023 Grammys: The Big Four Categories

We are now just days away from the 2023 Grammy Awards on Sunday, February 5. (Here’s how to watch the show, in case you didn’t know, and here’s the full list of this year’s nominees.) The Recording Academy’s picks for who is going to win what awards are in, and all that’s left to do is wait and see who will be cement themselves in music history and take a golden gramophone trophy home.

Actually, there’s another thing left to do, not a requirement but a fun thought exercise: make picks for who the Academy has likely chosen for the four major awards (Best New Artist, Song Of The Year, Record Of The Year, Album Of The Year) and who we think should win them.

Make your own selections if you’d like, but if you wouldn’t mind hearing another perspective before you do, I’ve come up with some predictions and opinions. It wasn’t easy, because New Artist, Song, Record, and Album categories are stacked this year; A lot of new artists made an immediate impact on the music landscape, a number of songs are already being hailed as classics, and some albums on this year’s list are all-timers (at least one is if you ask Questlove, anyway).

So, before the 2023 Grammys officially kick off, let’s take a look at who probably will win the big four awards and who probably should get them.

Best New Artist

  • Anitta
  • Domi & JD Beck
  • Latto
  • Måneskin
  • Molly Tuttle
  • Muni Long
  • Omar Apollo
  • Samara Joy
  • Tobe Nwigwe
  • Wet Leg

Who will win: Anitta

Who should win: Anitta

Really, it’s hard to call Anitta new. It’s been nearly a decade since the Brazilian superstar released her 2013 self-titled debut album, which went No. 1 in her home country. In recent times, though, she has profoundly broken out on a broader international level. Her 2022 album Versions Of Me was her first on Warner (previous releases came out via Warner Music Brasil) and its biggest single, “Envolver,” was a global hit: It’s her first solo track to place on the Billboard Hot 100 chart (after the Cardi B and Myke Towers collab “Me Gusta” in 2020), it became a TikTok sensation, and it was the first song by a Brazilian artist to rank No. 1 on the daily Spotify Global Chart. Between all that and other viral moments, Anitta is currently the best version of herself and is only getting better. While the crop of Best New Artist nominees is strong, none of the others have yet reached Anitta-level success.

Song Of The Year

  • Adele — “Easy On Me”
  • Beyoncé — “Break My Soul”
  • Bonnie Raitt — “Just Like That”
  • DJ Khaled — “God Did” Feat. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend, and Fridayy
  • Gayle — “ABCDEFU”
  • Harry Styles — “As It Was”
  • Kendrick Lamar — “The Heart Part 5”
  • Lizzo — “About Damn Time”
  • Steve Lacy — “Bad Habit”
  • Taylor Swift — “All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (Taylor’s Version)”

Who will win: Adele — “Easy On Me”

Who should win: Taylor Swift — “All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (Taylor’s Version)”

The new expanded version of “All Too Well” quickly became one of the most storied songs in Swift’s discography, an oeuvre that has not been wanting of praise. Rolling Stone‘s Rob Sheffield proclaimed the tune “sums up Swift at her absolute best,” and in the age of allegedly waning attention spans, fans have streamed the lengthy song over 450 million times on Spotify and made it the longest No. 1 song in Billboard Hot 100 history. There’s a problem, though: The Grammys honor new music (relatively new, anyway; “ABCDEFU” came out in August 2021). “All Too Well,” which originates from 2012’s Red, isn’t exactly a brand new track. That may dissuade Grammy voters from giving it the trophy, but it also wouldn’t be a crime if Adele’s “Easy On Me,” another powerfully evocative former No. 1 single, ended up winning. Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit” is also worth noting here, as it’s far from a pop tune but has nonetheless had pop tune success and acclaim.

Record Of The Year

  • ABBA — “Don’t Shut Me Down”
  • Adele — “Easy On Me”
  • Beyoncé — “Break My Soul”
  • Brandi Carlile Featuring Lucius — “You And Me On The Rock”
  • Doja Cat — “Woman”
  • Harry Styles — “As It Was”
  • Kendrick Lamar — “The Heart Part 5”
  • Lizzo — “About Damn Time”
  • Mary J. Blige — “Good Morning Gorgeous”
  • Steve Lacy — “Bad Habit”

Who will win: Adele — “Easy On Me”

Who should win: Harry Styles — “As It Was”

First, an important note: The Recording Academy previously explained, “Record Of The Year deals with a specific recording of a song and recognizes the artists, producers and engineers who contribute to that recording, while Song Of The Year deals with the composition of a song and recognizes the songwriters who wrote the song.”

So, broadly, Song is about songwriting and Record is about the finished recording. That said, Harry Styles’ “As It Was” is a gorgeously executed recording deserving of the Record Of The Year title. At its core, it’s a summery pop-rock song that sounds a lot like some beach-faring indie music from years back. But, that aesthetic has been revived and refreshed just enough for modern day, yielding a tune that sounds warmly and breezily nostalgic while also slotting nicely into the current pop landscape. Headphone listeners are rewarded with the one, too, as there are a lot of production treats and intricacies that are hard to appreciate on an iPhone speaker but that give the song new dimension when you pay attention to them. The results really speak for themselves: “As It Was” is the longest-running No. 1 song by a solo artist in Hot 100 history and it appears not too long from now, it’ll become the first song from 2022 to eclipse 2 billion Spotify streams.

Album Of The Year

  • ABBA — Voyage
  • Adele — 30
  • Bad Bunny — Un Verano Sin Ti
  • Beyoncé — Renaissance
  • Brandi Carlile — In These Silent Days
  • Coldplay — Music Of The Spheres
  • Harry Styles — Harry’s House
  • Kendrick Lamar — Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers
  • Lizzo — Special
  • Mary J. Blige — Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe)

Who will win: Adele — 30

Who should win: Beyoncé — Renaissance

Like many Grammy categories, pitting the nominees against each other is like comparing apples and oranges… and hammers and beach balls and secret family recipes. By what metrics do you measure products as wildly different as Album Of The Year nominees from Brandi Carlile, Adele, Coldplay, and Kendrick Lamar when they’re all up for the same award? It’s a task so impossible, it’s a wonder the Recording Academy is able to come to a decision at all year after year.

Annually, though, they do come up with a pick, one that makes fans mad regardless of who won. However, Beyoncé’s Renaissance would be a hard (but not impossible, as haters will prove should the album win) pick to hate, no matter your disposition. The LP has elements of dance, house, disco, pop, R&B, and probably dozens of other musical styles too numerous to mention here, all delivered by the incomparably confident, capable, and charismatic Beyoncé. Even putting her star power aside, Renaissance is a spectrum-spanning album that is full of mind-blowing musical moments. Here’s something that’s hard to make an argument against: Renaissance defined music in 2022 (and more importantly, during this year’s eligibility window from October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022). That sounds like the Album Of The Year to me.

Find the full list of 2023 Grammy nominees here.

Some artists covered here are Warner Music artists. .