For four weeks in late September and October, the Commission on Presidential Debates will put on four debates — three for presidential candidates, one for vice presidential candidates — at locations across the country. Donald Trump’s NFL claims to the contrary, these televised events are designed to expose him, his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, and their respective running mates, Mike Pence and Tim Kaine, to the greatest number of eyeballs possible. As for third-party candidates like “wildest card” Gary Johnson and former ’90s folk rock sensation Jill Stein, all they can do is warm the political benches.
Unless of course, as Politico reports, either candidate (or Harambe) manages to meet a few basic requirements to join Clinton and Trump onstage in Hempstead, New York, St. Louis or Las Vegas. Hence why the commission advised the debate hosts to make room for a third podium adjacent to Clinton and Trump’s designated spots. You know, just in case Johnson or Stein meet said requisites:
- Appearing “on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College.”
- Garnering at least 15 percent support nationally, as “determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination.”
Per the latest polling data aggregated by RealClearPolitics, Libertarian Johnson is pulling in 8.6 percent nationally, whereas Green Stein currently sits at 4 percent. Both numbers are up significantly from a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week that pegged Johnson and Stein at 5 and 1 percent respectively. Per these August numbers, the likelihood of Stein getting anywhere near the 15 percent cutoff is just too low, but Johnson? The debate commission seems to think it’s enough of a possibility to add a third podium:
“With [former Gov.] Gary Johnson polling in some places more than double digits, they might have, some of our production people may have said, ‘Just in case, you need to plan out what that might look like,'” Commission on Presidential Debates co-chair Mike McCurry told POLITICO. “We won’t know the number of invitations we extend until mid-September.”
Don’t hold your breath if you’re jonesing for a Johnson, however, because the Libertarian nominee would have to do something really amazing in order to make the cut. As commission co-chair Frank Fahrenkopf told CNBC last week, if a third-party candidate was polling “at 14.5 percent and the margin of error in five polls was 3 points,” they’d take a look. “But right now that person would not be included.”
(Via Politico)