2016-17 Record: 51-31 (3rd in East)
Players Added: OG Anunoby (Draft), Lorenzo Brown (FA), K.J. McDaniels (FA), Alfonzo McKinnie (FA), Kennedy Meeks (FA), C.J. Miles (Trade with IND), Malcolm Miller (FA), Kyle Wiltjer (FA)
Players Lost: DeMarre Carroll (Trade with BKN), Cory Joseph (Trade with IND), Patrick Patterson (FA), P.J. Tucker (FA)
Projected Team MVP: Kyle Lowry
Kyle Lowry missed 22 games over the course of the 2016-2017 season. Aside from that injury hiccup, it was the best campaign of his career by a significant margin. The veteran point guard posted career-best figures in PER (22.9), true shooting (62.3 percent), win shares per 48 minutes (.216), three-point shooting (41.2 percent), field goal percentage (46.4 percent), rebounding (4.8 per game) and scoring (22.4 points per game). That is, of course, pretty good.
There was quite a bit of hype for Lowry’s backcourt running mate in DeMar DeRozan and that makes sense given that the swingman averaged a robust 27.3 points per game. However, it was Lowry that was the engine for the best lineups in Toronto and his overall floor game (and significant defensive edge) gives him the advantage over DeRozan in a purely “most valuable” discussion.
Looking ahead, Lowry will be 32 in March and there is some fear of a drop-off as a result. He signed a lucrative deal in the offseason but, in short, it was actually less than many projected and his age likely has something to do with that. Throw in the fact that Lowry will almost certainly regress from his unfathomably productive season a year ago and it will be interesting to see where he lands.
One thing is for sure, though, and that is the Raptors are an excellent regular season basketball team whenever Kyle Lowry is on the floor.
Team X-Factor: Serge Ibaka
Ibaka is not the team’s second-best player. DeRozan, no matter the detractors that line up against him at times, is clearly a superior player at this stage and that should be noted. Still, the NBA world knows almost exactly what DeRozan is at this point and the same actually can’t be said for Ibaka, even at the age of 28 and with eight full seasons of NBA experience.
It seems reasonable to believe that Ibaka’s best years are behind him and that is especially evident on the defensive end. At one point, Ibaka was a DPOY candidate on an annual basis but his rebound and block rates have sharply declined since then and he no longer has the trademark burst to cover ground on the perimeter and at the rim at the same time. In fact, Ibaka is basically a pure center at this stage, further complicating things in the presence of both Jonas Valanciunas and soon-to-be sophomore former lottery pick Jakob Poeltl.
How does Dwane Casey shuffle that frontcourt? It seems obvious to, well, almost everyone that Ibaka is miscast as a power forward at this stage and it hasn’t been a secret that the Raptors would like to move on from Valanciunas’ contract. Still, they haven’t been able to do so and, given the exit of Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker, it would be a surprise if Ibaka did not see extended time at power forward. The Raptors had only 23 games with Ibaka in the lineup a year ago but, with those other veterans gone, how he fares in that role is wildly important to their success this season.
Best Case Scenario:
The Raptors won 51 games a year ago and finished with the NBA’s fourth-best net rating at 4.9 points per 100 possessions. To put it plainly, this was a very good basketball team. A lot has changed since then in terms of roster shuffling but the duo of Lowry and DeRozan remains intact and that goes a long way toward productivity and, frankly, safety in the regular season.
If both guards stay healthy for 75-plus games, the Raptors have proven to be a team fully capable of winning, at the bare minimum, in the high-40’s and that could extend into the mid-to-low 50’s with a bit of luck elsewhere. Norman Powell must take a step forward for that upside to come into view and the newly acquired C.J. Miles must hold up on defense while simultaneously injecting his (badly) needed three-point shooting into the fray. There are questions of fit in the frontcourt but, with health, this could be a team that seriously challenges for the No. 1 seed in the East if both the Celtics and Cavaliers take time to adjust to new roster constructions.
Worst Case Scenario:
Most teams in the NBA are susceptible to big-time regression if injuries come down on their stars but the Raptors absolutely cannot afford to lose Kyle Lowry for any length of time. The trade of Cory Joseph puts even a bigger microscope on that and, with respect to Fred VanVleet and Delon Wright, that duo can’t begin to put together the production from the starting point guard on this roster. Aside from that, though, there are other questions.
If Ibaka can’t provide capable minutes at the four, that could be a big-time weak spot and the Raptors have only one wing defender (Powell) that puts fear into anyone. Because this will absolutely be a good offense barring disaster, there is something of a floor in play but, if the new pieces don’t mesh and the hole left by Patterson and Tucker is gaping, the Raptors could certainly finish behind the Cavs, Celtics, Wizards and Bucks in some order.
