It’s not fair to say the San Antonio Spurs are slumping. The reigning champions are 36-23, good for seventh in the loaded Western Conference and just three and-a-half games back of fourth-place. Their +3.7 net rating is the league’s eighth best, and Tim Duncan has anchored a defense that ranks among basketball top-five.
But Gregg Popovich’s team spoiled us last season and even the one before that. The Spurs are a machine that never stops running seamlessly, and even their performance in 2014-2015 has confirmed that widespread belief – they’ve been lagging due to injury all season long and still sit on the championship periphery. If San Antonio wasn’t coming off playing the most beautifully dominant brand of basketball in recent history last June, its season up to this point would be considered a success.
The Spurs are 6-6 in their last 12 games, however, and aren’t far removed from a 7-10 December – the first losing month of the Duncan era. The black and silver lining is that Popovich and company know precisely what ails them. If Tony Parker can’t regain the form that’s made him one of the game’s best point guards for the past decade, though, there’s no simple way to fix San Antonio’s problems.
The 32 year-old Frenchman has been limited by a hamstring strain since returning to the lineup in early January. He says overcoming pain associated with the injury as the Spurs labor has been among the most difficult challenges of his 14-year career.
Here’s Parker via Marc Spears of Yahoo Sports:
“I’ve been through a lot of tough challenges in my career,” Parker said. “Right now, this is up there.”
[…]
“I have not been the same since I came back, and it’s still bothering me,” he said. “Everybody knows. I am not going to use that as an excuse. I am just going to work it out until it gets better.”
[…]
“I am just trying to work it through it,” Parker said. “Hopefully, it will be good pretty soon. At the same time, it’s tough because the whole team is struggling and I’m struggling. It’s a tough time right now.”
Popovich recently said his team wouldn’t contend for a title without a healthy Parker, too.
“If he’s not the Tony Parker of past years,” he told the San Antonio Express-News two weeks ago, “we’re not going anywhere.”
If the four-time champion’s importance to San Antonio was ever in question, it certainly isn’t anymore. As Parker’s play has vacillated between poor and average over the past two months, the Spurs have been just a shade above mediocre – and the numbers say his influence has been closer to a detriment than benefit.
San Antonio has been below-average offensively since Parker’s return on January 6. Its 101.3 offensive rating over that timeframe would rank 20th in the league over a full season, and the Spurs have fared markedly better with their point guard off the floor – they score 99.0 points per 100 possessions with Parker playing and 104.2 when he’s riding the pine.
It’s not hard to see why, either. Lacking his normal agility and explosion around the basket, Parker’s accuracy at the rim has cratered. Below are his shot charts pre- and post- injury.
Interestingly, Parker is taking a slightly larger percentage of his shots from from the restricted area since his injury, and his amount of attempts from the paint has barely moved, too. However, Popovich still points to Parker’s decreasing penchant for penetrating as reason for San Antonio’s uncharacteristic offensive performance.
“His aggressiveness is a huge key for us, because of his ability to penetrate and get to the rim, and he hasn’t done that like he has in the past,” he told the Express-News. “It’s because of a lack of confidence in that leg and a lack of conditioning, a combination of those two things.”
According to SportVU Player Tracking data, Parker is averaging .8 fewer drives per game this season than last. The problem is that he’s producing just 1.05 points for his team on those forays to the paint in 2014-2015, compared to 1.14 a year ago. That’s not a massive discrepancy, but still one large enough to partially explain the Spurs’ struggles – especially considering adjustments defenses make to account for Parker’s ineffectiveness as a finisher.
The good news is that it’s not too late for San Antonio. Parker has six weeks before the playoffs to find his legs, and Popovich will surely afford him every opportunity to do so. But that he’s still bothered by hamstring discomfort and conditioning issues after two months back on the floor is concerning, especially considering the mileage on Parker’s body compiled over the past three years.
Might this be the first lasting effect of Father Time? It seems a possibility. Until further notice, though, it would be remiss to count Parker and the Spurs out – as they’ve proven time and again in seasons past.
*Statistical support for this post provided by nba.com/stats.
[Yahoo]
