There is a limit to what the basketball-viewing public can “know” in mid-October but, this season, there are a few givens. The reigning NBA champions are back and, at least on paper, improved from last season’s dominant performance. The presence of the Golden State Warriors in this form has produced many blazing takes in recent months but, simply put, they are the favorites to claim the Larry O’Brien Trophy again and that won’t change unless things go awry for an extended period of time.
On the flip side, there are the Chicago Bulls. Yes, this is a power rankings segment (I promise we’ll get there) and it isn’t ideal to give away the ending before we get there but, well, Fred Hoiberg’s team is the worst in the league on paper.
Everything in between, though, remains up for debate and that is one of the beauties of the NBA. Each week, we will weigh in on where teams stack up from 1 through 30, knowing full well that fluidity will be a theme throughout. Real, live basketball (that counts) is here and it’s a beautiful thing. Let’s roll.
1. Golden State Warriors (Last week — n/a)
Early reports on Nick Young haven’t been great in Oakland but, on the bright side, the Warriors don’t really need him to be good. That’s the kind of thing that is preposterous about Golden State in that the team invested heavily in his services and I’m not even sure he’s the best player in the role he is projected for at this point. It helps to have four of the best 20 players on the planet and an elite coach. Fun times.
2. Houston Rockets (Last week — n/a)
This is a tough call but the Rockets take the edge based on their performance a season ago and the fact that Chris Paul is quite good. The Harden-Paul dynamic is worth (closely) monitoring but imagine a world in which Houston can deploy an uber-elite point guard for all 48 minutes of the game. That’s a very nice wrinkle and, given the success both players have had in carrying units by themselves, the baseline is quite high.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (Last week — n/a)
I’m in. Russell Westbrook likely won’t duplicate his obscene counting numbers but Paul George is a great complement and Carmelo Anthony can still play. Are there questions? Absolutely, but the Thunder are loaded with talent and Sam Presti’s Executive of the Year campaign is off to a flying start.
4. San Antonio Spurs (Last week — n/a)
It is in the power rankings rule book to never write off the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard isn’t healthy, the roster isn’t imposing and I get all of that. In short, those are the reasons the Spurs are not sitting at No. 2 overall. Gregg Popovich remains, though, and I can’t quit this team without evidence.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week — n/a)
Until Isaiah Thomas returns, the Cavs are certainly worse on paper than they were last season. They still have LeBron James. Everything is going to be okay and it has to be noted that Jae Crowder is a fantastic and versatile addition.
6. Boston Celtics (Last week — n/a)
Boston’s offense should be better this season, even with the caveat that Isaiah Thomas was preposterously good a season ago. Kyrie Irving may not match that stride for stride in year one but Gordon Hayward helps quite a bit and all of the question marks are on defense. It may not be pretty early but Brad Stevens is kind of a wizard.
7. Washington Wizards (Last week — n/a)
Speaking of the Wizards (that’s a professional segue, folks), John Wall and company are feeling themselves right now. It is easy to see why after retaining their entire core and (theoretically) improving the bench but Washington still hasn’t won 50 games in a season with this group and it isn’t as if there is no uncertainty.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (Last week — n/a)
This is a wildly talented team. It is also one that claimed only 31 victories a season ago. Jimmy Butler might be worth 10 wins on his own but the rest of Minnesota’s projected bump has to come with internal growth (especially on defense) and we won’t “know” until we see it. Could they win 55 games? Sure. Could they win 42 games? Sure.
9. Toronto Raptors (Last week — n/a)
As long as Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are upright, the Raptors have proven to be a very strong regular season team. There are questions in the frontcourt with fit and the loss of vets like Cory Joseph and Patrick Patterson definitely matters. Toronto is still a safe bet.
10. Denver Nuggets (Last week — n/a)
The Nuggets were the best offense in the NBA down the stretch of last season (a figure that has been repeated ad nauseam) and that is indicative of what this group can do. Now, they add a top-10 defender in the sport with Paul Millsap and, provided Denver receives semi-adequate point guard production, this is going to be an extremely fun and effective basketball team.
11. Milwaukee Bucks (Last week — n/a)
The Bucks won 42 games a season ago and basically did nothing in the offseason. It helps to add a full-strength Khris Middleton for an entire season and Jabari Parker might be back but those betting on Milwaukee are betting on internal growth. I think they’ll get it but it’s a slight risk and a lot of faith in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
12. Utah Jazz (Last week — n/a)
I’m higher on the Jazz than just about anyone. Part of that is being a sucker for quality defense but, in short, there is an obscenely high floor for a team that looks to land in the top three in the NBA on that end of the floor. Rudy Gobert’s health is paramount but, if he stays on the court with Quin Snyder leading the way, the Jazz just need to avoid complete disaster offensively and they can fall into a win total in the low-40’s. That safety is appealing, even if not sexy in the slightest.
13. Memphis Grizzlies (Last week — n/a)
Speaking of safety, the Memphis Grizzlies! It has to be said that the Grizz are in massive trouble if Marc Gasol and/or Mike Conley go down for any length of time and I’m prepared to look silly. However, we can’t flatly assume that and I sneakily enjoyed some of the additions. Frankly, it is terrifying to consider that Memphis needs Chandler Parsons to do stuff but I trust in Conley and Gasol to generate a .500 mark or better.
14. Los Angeles Clippers (Last week — n/a)
As I’m (much) higher on the Jazz and Grizz than some, the flip side is true for the Clippers. The projection systems like this team and I totally get it, as they have a bunch of quality players. My issue is fit in a situation where the team’s best small forward (Danilo Gallinari) is a power forward and there is no size to be seen in the backcourt whatsoever. Oh, and if you believe in the Clippers, you believe in Blake Griffin playing 70 games. I’m not making that leap with the information available.
15. Portland Trail Blazers (Last week — n/a)
The Blazers are going to miss Allen Crabbe. It made complete sense to dump him for (huge) luxury tax savings but he was easily the team’s best shooter outside of Lillard and McCollum and his loss will be felt. Moreover, the biggest non-shooting issue will be on the defensive end, where no one can be convinced this would be even an acceptable product. Portland may be better than this because the backcourt is tremendous and Terry Stotts is great, but they need Jusuf Nurkic to be awesome again and I’m not sure.
16. Miami Heat (Last week — n/a)
Miami will probably finish with more wins than any of the previous four teams in the Western Conference but that doesn’t make the Heat better. In truth, it is virtually impossible to evaluate a team that started 11-30 and finished 30-11, especially when they just brought the band back. Could the Heat win 48? Sure. Could the win Heat 38? Sure.
17. New Orleans Pelicans (Last week — n/a)
Brooklyn has the worst bigs in the league, New York, and Chicago has the worst point guards in the league (we’ll get there) but it is New Orleans that boasts the worst wing rotation. The loss of Solomon Hill hurts that but, if we’re being honest, Hill is better at the 4 and so is Dante Cunningham. A lot can be covered up by Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins but, aside from Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore, there isn’t a lot of safety to be seen around them. This is a volatile club and we’ll split the difference with this ranking to some extent.
18. Philadelphia 76ers (Last week — n/a)
Joel Embiid is now exceptionally wealthy and that is fun to consider. The Sixers do need him to justify this ranking and, plainly, they’ll need something from the last two No. 1 overall picks in Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz. It is pieces like J.J. Redick and Robert Covington that raise the floor in Philly but the ceiling is almost entirely predicated on Embiid and, to a lesser extent, the two rookies. I have no idea what to expect but everyone is excited for good reason.
19. Detroit Pistons (Last week — n/a)
Everything went wrong for Detroit last year and the team still won 37 games. Can Reggie Jackson be that bad again? Maybe not but, if he is, the Pistons remain in trouble. They upgraded from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Avery Bradley but that swap did come at the price of Marcus Morris and there isn’t a ton to love here long-term. The No. 8 seed is in reach but that is tacit approval if it ever existed.
20. Dallas Mavericks (Last week — n/a)
Rick Carlisle is very good at his job, Dirk Nowitzki is back for another run and Dennis Smith Jr. is a reasonable ROY pick. The rest of the roster has some issues outside of Harrison Barnes (who was quite good a year ago) and Wes Matthews but the Mavs would be a playoff team in the East. In the West, not so much.
21. Charlotte Hornets (Last week — n/a)
The Hornets would be (much) higher than this if Nic Batum was healthy to begin the season but that injury really hurts. Batum is the only secondary creator on the roster and, while Kemba Walker is tremendous, someone has to initiate the offense when he leaves the floor. There are other questions as well (like whether Dwight Howard will play over Cody Zeller) but offense is going to be tough to come by unless Walker is out of his mind.
22. Indiana Pacers (Last week — n/a)
Indiana’s plan seemingly consists of trying to win games without any lean toward the future. That is, of course, a questionable long-term decision but the Pacers have amassed a roster with some competent pieces and Myles Turner is very good. In the East, this could be a playoff team, which is hard to fathom, and the floor is fairly high.
23. Los Angeles Lakers (Last week — n/a)
This ranking has less to do with the Lonzo Ball hype train than it does with adding Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Ball might be ahead of the curve as a rookie but, in general, LA’s talent level is just higher now with the aforementioned vets and projected growth from Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance, and others. It’s not a playoff team but the Lakers should be fun.
24. Orlando Magic (Last week — n/a)
The Magic still don’t have a cohesive direction but at least they are under new management. In some ways, it is a huge year in Orlando with decisions to make on Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, and others but, if you just look at the way the roster fits, there are more questions than answers.
25. Sacramento Kings (Last week — n/a)
Signing George Hill (and Vince Carter… and Zach Randolph…) may not have been the best long-term decision but it certainly helps Sacramento for this season. It is hard to ignore just how reliant the Kings will still be on youngsters and that matters but they’ll be better than you might think if Hill can stay on the floor and Buddy Hield takes the next step.
26. Atlanta Hawks (Last week — n/a)
Mike Budenholzer is a very good basketball coach that lands Atlanta two or three spots higher than the roster would indicate. Dennis Schröder probably shouldn’t be the best player on an NBA team but the Hawks do have some competent veterans on the roster and Budenholzer is something of a genius in the way he coaxes production out of defenses.
27. New York Knicks (Last week — n/a)
The Knicks were sneakily better when Carmelo Anthony didn’t play last season but a lot of that was due to team defense that was woeful and, well, that isn’t fixed. More than anything, Jeff Hornacek’s team will suffer from what should be ghastly point guard play and there is only so much Kristaps Porzingis can do.
28. Brooklyn Nets (Last week — n/a)
If big men didn’t matter, the Nets would be a lot higher. As constructed, however, Brooklyn has the worst frontcourt rotation in the league and that will hurt them. It is easy to get excited about a team with a young, talented guard in D’Angelo Russell and high-end coaching but the talent level will (still) hold them back this season.
29. Phoenix Suns (Last week — n/a)
Phoenix has quite a bit of young talent but it isn’t “there” yet. Devin Booker might be great this season, Eric Bledsoe can still play and Josh Jackson might be the real deal as a rookie. It still takes a big leap to place the Suns in the mix for much other than ping-pong balls.
30. Chicago Bulls (Last week — n/a)
This isn’t going to go well. Chicago has the worst collection of point guards in the league and that is the one position where being deficient is virtually impossible to paper over effectively. In addition, the Bulls’ best player is probably (?) Robin Lopez at this point and, when optimism hinges on a healthy (and speedy) return from Zach LaVine, we can safely agree that No. 30 is the only place to put Chicago. Perhaps they’ll overachieve.
