Futon Critic has crunched the numbers since the 1999 network tv season, and of the 892 new series, only 298 have survived. That’s a 32 percent survival rate, and it’s fairly consistent across all years (see, also, last year, in which only 14 of 43 shows survived). According to their figures, no network has ever had as high as a 50 percent survival rate, while 2010 had the lowest survival rate (23 percent). Therefore, according to their prediction, only 15 of the new 47 network tv shows this year will make it to a second season.
Here’s my prediction for which 15 they will be.
1. The Mindy Project — Charming (if a
little lot annoying), and a perfect compliment to The New Girl.
2. Ben and Kate — A semi-fun sitcom, so far, but will likely survive because it’ll be sandwiched into Fox’s Tuesday comedy block, along with New Girl and The Mindy Project.
3. Go On — Ratings have been solid so far. Even if it drops once sitcom competition from the other channels begins, if it holds half of its current audience (around 9.3 million), it’d considered a hit on NBC.
4. Vegas — Good reviews, Dennis Quaid, and a Vegas Western set in the 1960s? It’s kind of perfect for the geriatric CBS demographic.
5. Animal Practice — Not a bad show, but not a great one, either. It’s sitcom competition is The Middle over on ABC, and I think that Justin Kirk’s show can survive that (I’m not as certain about the awful Guys with Kids that follows).
6. The Carrie Diaries — Another CW show, you know is going to do well on the network with the heaviest concentration of young female viewers.
7. Elementary — Sadly, this will almost certainly be a huge hit for CBS on a Thursday night hour with little competition these days (it’ll be going up against Scandal and Rock Center with Brian Williams).
8. Arrow — Based on the Green Arrow superhero, this show stars a lot of vaguely recognizable people from other CW-like shows, and will likely perform well for the younger CW audience.
9. Friend Me — Mid-season entries often do not survive, but I like the chances for Friend Me — based around the real-life deal-of-the-day website coupon service company Groupon — because it stars Christopher Mintz-Plasse and Nicholas Braun, and everything does well on CBS (see Rob!). It’s just a matter of whether the show plays well with the demos. This one could actually get CBS a few younger viewers.
10. How to Live with Your Parents for the Rest of Your Life — Another mid-season entry, I like this one because Sarah Chalke is due, and Brian Grazer is exec producing, and everything he touches turns to gold.
11. The Following — This mid-season entry will almost certainly succeed because of high production values, Kevin Bacon as an FBI agent and James Purefoy(!) as a serial killer (Natalie Zea and Maggie Grace also star), and what’s sure to be a huge mid-season push by the network after the almost certain failure of Mob Doctor.
12. 1600 Penn — This mid-season replacement is a sitcom about a dysfunctional White House family. I’ve seen the pilot, and I have to say, it’s my favorite of the new NBC series. It stars Jenna Elfman and Bill Pullman, and comes from a former Obama speechwriter, Jon Lovett.
13. Hannibal — I actually don’t know if this will be any good at all. NBC has fumbled a lot of shows with recognizable titles (like last year’s The Firm), but I think Hannibal is a big enough draw to hold an audience as long as the show is somewhat decent. It stars Hugh Dancy and Mads Mikkelson, and will almost certainly be a network-friendly procedural.
14. Beauty and the Beast — It’s the CW. Name recognition is what drives the tiny success the network has had.
15. Nashville — The previews for this show don’t actually look that compelling, but it’s Connie Britton and Hayden Panettiere, and it’s the drama with the plush post-Modern Family time slot, where Revenge succeeded last year.
First show to be cancelled this season? Neighbors. Destined to be on next year’s canceled too soon list? The Last Resort.
(Study Source: Futon Critic)