On Sunday, the Los Angeles Clippers will welcome the Dallas Mavericks to Crypto.com Arena for Game 1 of a best-of-seven first round series. While eight different series will begin over the weekend, this Western Conference tilt is arguably the most anticipated of the opening round, in part due to the recent history between the clubs.
The Mavericks and Clippers will meet in the first round for the third time in the last five years, with L.A. claiming victory in each of the first two battles. Still, those matchups were highly memorable due in part to the individual heroics of Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard, and in order to look ahead to this year’s forecast, we must look back to learn from history.
The First Battle
The first time the Clippers and Mavs met in the playoffs during this era was in 2020 in the Orlando Bubble. It was the first-ever playoff series for Doncic, who further cemented his claim as one of the game’s best young players with an incredible performance. He averaged 31.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game in what became a six-game war, and Doncic had an unbelievable 43-point, 17-rebound, 13-assist masterpiece, capped off by a ridiculous game-winner, to even the series in Game 4.
The Clippers closed things out with wins in the final two games, and Leonard punctuated the series on the Clippers’ side. He averaged more than 32 points and 10 rebounds per game, scoring 29 points or more in each contest, and the Mavericks simply could not stop the Clippers. L.A. scored 1.21 points per possession with a 61.9 percent true shooting mark in the series. The Clippers went on to blow a 3-1 lead to the Nuggets in the next round, which marked the end of the Doc Rivers era in Los Angeles, but the first round series was memorable.
The Rematch
Dallas took a 2-0 lead on the road in the 2021 rematch behind 70 combined points from Doncic. The Dallas superstar also scored 46 points while dishing out 14 assists in Game 7, but the Clippers ultimately won four of the final five games to advance. Doncic was arguably the best player in the series, scoring 39 points or more in four of the seven games, but Leonard was again ridiculous. He averaged 32.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game while shooting 61.2 percent from the field and 42.5 percent from three-point range. That included 36.5 points per game in the final two games of the series with a casually brilliant 70/50/100 shooting line.
In the end, the Mavs failed to slow the Clippers again, and it was the final segment of Rick Carlisle’s tenure on the Dallas bench. The Clippers reached the Western Conference Finals before bowing out of the playoffs.
What To Watch For In 2024
As noted above, this the third matchup in the last five years, but it’s also been a while and the teams look very different from their last playoff meeting. The Mavericks disappointed with a 38-44 season a year ago, capped by an intentional dip at the end of the regular season for draft purposes. That ultimately landed Dereck Lively in Dallas, but the Mavericks were not a playoff factor. Prior to that, Dallas put together a 52-win season and a Western Conference Finals appearance in 2021-22, but the Clippers fell short of the playoffs. L.A. did post a winning record in 2021-22, but it wasn’t enough, and the Clippers lost in the first round in 2022-23. Leonard missed 112 of a possible 164 games over those two seasons, greatly contributing to L.A.’s lack of overall success.
For the Clippers, everything centers on whether Leonard will be healthy and available. At the time of this post, his injury status is unknown for Game 1 and beyond. Leonard has not appeared in a game since March 31 and, while some are hopeful, hope isn’t a plan. Uncertainty around Leonard is deeply unfortunate, particularly in a season in which the former NBA Finals MVP was able to play a great deal and operate at a sky-high level. It is difficult to “preview” the matchup without knowing Leonard’s status but, in simple terms, L.A. is not the same team — on either end of the floor — without Kawhi Leonard.
Dallas is on track to be more whole in terms of roster, and Doncic has played nearly half (13 of 28) his career playoff games against the Clippers. He hasn’t been perfect against L.A., including a blowout loss in at least one game in each of the first two series, but he also averaged 33.5 points, 9.5 assists, and 8.8 rebounds per game at 21 and 22 years old. Doncic projects as a top-three finisher in this year’s regular season MVP race, and he is the centerpiece of an offense that is utterly dynamic when he and Kyrie Irving share the floor.
Beyond Leonard’s availability, there are storylines with James Harden’s (lack of) playoff track record and the Clippers posting a middling 10-10 record over the final 20 games of the regular season. At one point, L.A. was arguably playing the best basketball in the league outside of Boston, but that has leveled off considerably. Still, the Clippers are No. 4 in the NBA in offensive rating (117.9) and 41-22 in games featuring both Leonard and Paul George. In fact, L.A. has a preposterous +12.6 net rating with Leonard and George sharing the court, and the hope would be that the duo will be able to feature throughout the series.
On the other side, there is the major question of just how real the improvement of the Mavericks’ defense actually is. Dallas finished just No. 18 in the NBA in defensive efficiency but, over a 20-game sample to close the regular season, the Mavericks were 16-4 with the NBA’s best defensive rating (107.2). Caveats should always apply to NBA numbers accumulated in March, but the Mavericks have impressed. With Doncic and Irving able to buoy the offense, the Mavericks are often free to utilize top-tier defenders that might be marginalized in other offensive contexts. It is also hard to forget that the Clippers have done anything they’ve wanted to do in the first two playoff series, albeit with different overall personnel.
Each of the eight NBA playoffs series set to begin this weekend have clear appeal, but the most conventional may be Clippers-Mavericks. It has star power. It has history. It has the level of projected competitiveness that one would associate with a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup. These are two strong basketball teams with great players and, with fingers crossed for Leonard’s health, the series has the makings of a potential classic.
