The Lakers escaping the first Play-In game with an overtime win over the Timberwolves set up a tantalizing first round matchup with the 2-seed Memphis Grizzlies, who are not shying away from the opportunity to send LeBron James and company on vacation early.
However, doing so is easier said than done, as evidenced by James’ playoff history over his career and a Lakers squad that boasted the West’s best record after the All-Star break — with the caveat that the top teams in the West weren’t exactly playing through the whistle. The series features ample storylines on and off the court, as both teams spent the season creating headlines (for better and worse), but a few keys and X-factors stand out when breaking down this highly anticipated showdown.
Keys for the Grizzlies
We’ll start with Memphis, where their biggest advantage in this series will come from the backcourt. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane is a far better duo than D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, and if they are to win this series as they are favored to do, it will be because they exploit that matchup. Morant has proven his game travels to the postseason, averaging 28.2 points, 9.2 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game across 14 postseason appearances. Bane, likewise, has not shied away from the spotlight, knocking down a rather outrageous 49 percent of his threes in 17 playoff games in his young career.
Those two represent Memphis’ biggest edge and if they continue that trend of playoff productivity, they will force the Lakers’ star frontcourt duo to be at their very best to keep pace. Alongside the scoring prowess of Morant and Bane, the Grizzlies as a team should have an edge in terms of three-point shooting, headlined by Bane but also featuring the likes of Luke Kennard (shooting a preposterous 54 percent from deep since joining the Grizzlies at the deadline), Jaren Jackson Jr., and Tyus Jones, all above average from distance. Taking advantage of the three-point math equation will be critical to beating the Lakers, and while they have the personnel to do so, shots still have to fall.
On defense, they will lean on their DPOY frontrunner in Jackson Jr. to further shift that math equation in their favor. The Lakers are at their best attacking the rim and will have to do so against the league’s best rim protector. Jackson’s ability to be a constant deterrent at the basket is vital to how Memphis, without Steven Adams, will fare in this series defensively, and the biggest impediment to him doing that is foul trouble. L.A.’s constant rim pressure (coupled with having two highly respected veteran stars) leads them to getting an awful lot of calls at the rim. Jackson’s ability to balance his aggressive nature in chasing blocks with the need to stay on the floor and avoid foul trouble will loom large in this series.
Keys for the Lakers
The Lakers have been very good for the last couple months, but their record belies how many of their long-term issues are still always at risk of rearing their ugly head. They are still not a good three-point shooting team, even if they’re more potent than before, and given how often shooting variance plays a role in playoff series now, that limits their margin for error. Still, they have LeBron James and Anthony Davis with at least a somewhat more coherent supporting cast, and that gives them a real chance at a postseason run. Davis in particular is critical to the Lakers’ success in this series. For one, with Adams out, there will be opportunities on the offensive glass for the Lakers, with Davis as the most likely beneficiary of that if he can be aggressive and get himself in position to capitalize.
Given Jackson Jr.’s propensity for rotating hard to stop shots at the rim, Adams’ steady positioning and impenetrable box outs were critical to the Grizzlies being the fourth-best defensive rebounding team in the league. Without him, there’s more opportunities to create second-chance points, which the Lakers will need to take advantage of to help change the aforementioned math equation with the Grizzlies’ three-point shooting. On top of his impact on the glass, the Lakers simply need an aggressive and assertive Davis throughout the series. We can be pretty sure what kind of version of LeBron we’re getting in this series, but Davis is the one who determines how dangerous L.A. is. As we’ve seen in the stretch run, when he’s engaged and forceful, the Lakers are really good. Still, there are nights where he fades the periphery and against a Grizzlies team that is always an aggressor, that won’t end well for L.A.
X-Factors
For the Grizzlies, the team effort required on the defensive glass is going to be a significant factor, as without Adams there’s quite the void to fill. Beyond that, it’s their play on the wing that remains the biggest question mark. At this point, the Grizzlies seem to accept the Dillon Brooks Experience™ for what it is, but it will be important that he, like Jackson Jr., avoid foul trouble and also not let the extracurriculars distract from the task at hand. The Grizzlies will also need Brooks to play within himself offensively, and not decide it’s Dillon Brooks Time at ill-advised moments. Along with Brooks, the Grizzlies are going to need Luke Kennard to be able to stay on the court because of what he brings to them with his shooting, which means he’ll have to hold up defensively. LeBron James will hunt him on switches, and how Memphis handles that and navigates when to switch, when to fight through, and when to send help will be very important to keeping him as a positive contributor.
For the Lakers, they need D’Angelo Russell to be consistently good. He has shown flashes since returning to L.A. of how dynamic he can be and how helpful his offensive creation and shooting can be to aid Davis and James. However, there have been other nights, most notably in the Play-In game against the Wolves, where he’s ice-cold from distance and becomes an obstacle for the Lakers to overcome rather than a help. The Lakers need Good D-Lo in this series to help lessen that backcourt advantage the Grizzlies have. If he can do that consistently, and that’s a big if, suddenly the Lakers are very much in the mix.
