When the NBA is involved, craziness often ensues. Yes, the best teams in the league usually win the ultimate prize of the Larry O’Brien Trophy at the end of the long journey but, along the way, it is usually wise to expect the unexpected, which brings a ton of entertainment value.
With that said, it is almost impossible to accurately project all 30 of the league’s teams but, in this space, we’ll try to do just that … kind of. Our mission is to slot the entire NBA into tiers, even with full knowledge that a few (or more than a few) teams will end up overachieving or underachieving over the course of 82 games.
Some of these decisions are no-brainers, while others take a lot more thought and delineation. First up? The one and only favorite.
The Favorite
Golden State Warriors
Make no mistake, there are other teams that can win the NBA title in 2018-19. Still, it would be disingenuous to suggest that another team is the favorite to claim the championship given what the Warriors bring to the table.
It wouldn’t be difficult to make the case that Golden State’s edge could be lessening just a bit, especially if you are a believer in teams repeatedly making deep playoff runs getting tired as the wear and tear compiles. Still, the Warriors have four of the best 20 players in the league, one of the NBA’s top coaches and, this time around, a potentially devastating fifth starter with All-NBA upside if DeMarcus Cousins gets healthy. That’s pretty terrifying.
The Contenders
Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors
The Rockets are the easiest inclusion here, if only because Houston took Golden State to the absolute brink in the 2018 Western Conference Finals. On paper, the Rockets probably aren’t as good in 2018-19 after losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute but, if they can stay healthy, it will be interesting to see what a potential WCF rematch might resemble.
Elsewhere, the Celtics are seen by many as the favorite to emerge in the East and their combination of depth and talent is tantalizing. Can the Celtics stay healthy? Will all of the pieces fit after the return of Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving? We’ll see, but the Celtics are also led by a top-flight head coach, which helps to stabilize things, and everyone sounds like they’ve bought into what this team can achieve if they all buy in.
As for the Sixers and Raptors, there is no questioning the talent on the court. Philadelphia probably isn’t quite on the same level as Houston and Boston but, if everything clicks, they’ll be terrifying, especially if Markelle Fultz is able to remind everyone why he was the No. 1 pick in the draft last year. As for the Raptors, it’s easy to forget that Toronto was the No. 1 seed in the East last season while adding a consensus top-10 player to the mix in Kawhi Leonard.
Finally, the Lakers are tough to gauge. Los Angeles isn’t as good as the other teams in this tier but the mere presence of LeBron James can do wonders for any franchise. This inclusion comes out of respect for his abilities. It’s really that simple.
Legitimately Good Teams
Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz
This is an expansive and highly interesting tier.
Headlining the group is the Utah Jazz. Simply put, this is a team with a higher baseline than one of the teams (the Lakers) in the contenders tier. Quin Snyder’s bunch plays high-end defense and, if Donovan Mitchell makes any sort of leap after a dynamic rookie campaign, we’ll probably look silly for including them in this collection.
Then, the Nuggets, Wolves, Pelicans and Thunder return as playoff-caliber teams from a season ago and it would be reasonable to suggest that each of the squads improved. Denver has a healthy Paul Millsap (among other things), the Wolves are a year older and a touch deeper, the Pelicans have a versatile and interesting frontcourt, and the Thunder (provided Russell Westbrook is healthy) have a year of experience under their belts with Andre Roberson back and Carmelo Anthony out the door.
In the East, somebody has to make this tier and that most likely will be the Pacers, at least based on last season. If anything, Indiana’s roster is better than it was a year ago and, if they can avoid regressing, this has the look of a team that wins 50-ish games.
Playoff Contention
Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards
For this quintet of NBA teams, missing the playoffs would feel disastrous. In the same breath, it is hard to see too much upside with four of the five clubs — Miami, Portland, San Antonio, and Washington. The fifth, Milwaukee, won only 44 games last season.
The Bucks do possess significant growth potential with Giannis Antetokounmpo on board, and the presence of Mike Budenholzer as an upgrade over the previous regime should help quite a bit. Still, the roster itself isn’t overly tantalizing and it would take a superhuman effort from coach and player to seriously challenge for an appearance in the Conference Finals. The good news, though, is that Budenholzer is outstanding, while Antetokounmpo is capable of the superhuman.
The Heat and Wizards are certainly basketball teams. Miami is bringing the band back together with no salary cap relief in sight and Washington’s solution to chemistry issues was to jettison Marcin Gortat and sign Dwight Howard. Both have playoff-level talent in the East but making the conference finals would be a surprise.
If anything, inclusion in this tier may be unfair to Portland and San Antonio. After all, the Blazers were the No. 3 seed last season in the West and the Spurs are the Spurs. Portland’s roster still isn’t as sexy as some of the others in the West, though, and even if the Spurs are an effective regular season team yet again, it is hard to see much in the way of a threat from San Antonio in May.
Purgatory
Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies
The middle is the worst place to be in the NBA and, for these clubs, there isn’t an obvious escape mechanism.
The Hornets and Pistons are often referenced in purgatory given their inflated payrolls, long-term commitments and low upsides. Those descriptions are true, even if one (or both) could make the postseason without much surprise.
The Clippers managed to win 42 games in the West last season and possess quality depth, but in terms of stars of players with the potential to become starts, there isn’t much there. That depth matters on a nightly basis but, if anything, it is clear that Los Angeles is keeping the paint dry for the future.
Then you have the Grizzlies, who were objectively bad last season. If Mike Conley and/or Marc Gasol miss extended time again, a similar fate could be in order but, on the bright side, the team does have a future foundational piece in Jaren Jackson Jr., who was acquired following the disaster that was 2017-18. And if Conley and Gasol play 82 games at a level to which they’re capable, this team can be a nuisance.
Rebuild Mode
Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings
Fittingly, this is the league’s largest tier as the season approaches. It makes sense, as teams are realizing more and more that amassing as much talent as possible wins championship and bottoming out is the best way to acquire young, affordable talent.
Atlanta is widely projected as the worst team in the NBA and there’s a reason for that. The Hawks probably aren’t worse than a few other teams on this list but the openness of their rebuild is weirdly admirable and, if they fully hand the keys to rookie Trae Young in year one, the growing pains will be apparent.
Brooklyn made a few sage additions in the offseason and they’ve been widely praised as a result. Still, the Nets don’t have a ton of top-tier NBA talent right now and, if D’Angelo Russell doesn’t make a big step, this is still a bad basketball team, even if they are a fearless and well-coached squad.
Chicago and Cleveland are in odd spots for different reasons. The Bulls are seemingly all-in on offense with the addition of Jabari Parker and the re-signing of Zach LaVine, but there is no discernible plan on the defensive end and the roster, top to bottom, isn’t overly coherent. The Cavs still have Kevin Love and a handful of battle-tested veterans, but there is some incentive to press the reset button in a hurry with a top-10 protected pick owed to Atlanta. Speaking of the Hawks, like Atlanta, Cleveland may have some growing pains as a result of handing the keys to their rookie point guard.
The Mavericks have the potential to be the best of the bunch, but it is worth remembering that Dallas won 24 games last season. Luka Doncic is fun and should be good immediately, but DeAndre Jordan may not be the kind of player that Dallas is hoping at this juncture and some roster holes remain. Do keep an eye on Dennis Smith Jr., though, who has the potential to be special.
New York and Orlando are on track to be strange to say the least. The Knicks have better talent than most of the rebuilding squads when at full health but the potential of a lengthy absence for Kristaps Porzingis sends things into chaos. Without him, especially if he’s out all year, New York might be brutal. As for the Magic, there are a lot of NBA-quality players present but the pieces don’t make much sense right now and Orlando seems determined to test the depths of the modern NBA point guard position.
The Suns tried hard to improve in the offseason and they do have quite a bit of talent. The presence of Trevor Ariza provides legitimacy, Devin Booker is an offensive star and the Suns do have the No. 1 pick in the draft. In fact, Phoenix has more talent than just about anyone in the rebuilding tier. They just have to put it together, which might not happen right away.
Finally, you have the Kings. Sacramento is projected as the West’s worst team and did a lot of Kings things in the offseason. De’Aaron Fox might be fun and the Kings have talent but, with every inclination that Marvin Bagley III could be playing small forward (or any other absurdity), the league is reminded that the franchise has a long way to go.
