The committee rewarded the Shockers weak schedule with an almost impossible run to win the national championship. Wichita State might have to play Kentucky, yes eight-seeded Kentucky, the preseason No. 1-ranked team, in the third round. Win that game and the Shockers will have a rematch of their Final Four game last year with the last team that defeated them, the Louisville Cardinals. Pull out a shocking victory against the defending champions and Greg Marshall‘s squad will have to play either last year’s runner-up Michigan or Jabari Parker and the Duke Blue Devils just to reach the Final Four.
Yes, the Shockers have a tough road, but so does just about every team in this region. Mike Krzyzewski, Rick Pitino and John Calipari have all won national championships and will be looking to add one more to their resume. John Beilein, Rick Barnes and Bruce Weber are also very good coaches looking to win their first national championship. There is a very good chance that the eventual nation champion comes from the Midwest region this season.
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First Round Upsets:
(12) North Carolina State over (5) Saint Louis
T.J. Warren is the ACC Player of the Year and is one of the best offensive threats in the country. He is averaging 24.8 points, along with seven rebounds per game; add his 52.8 shooting percent from the field, making him a threat to take over a game single-handedly. Many were shocked when the Wolfpack were called on Sunday but I think they have a good chance to win two games in the tournament. Warren has scored 17 points or more in 30 of North Carolina State’s 34 games this season.
St. Louis has struggled down the stretch and is just 1-4 in their last five games.
(11) Tennessee over (6) Massachusetts
Tennessee is playing its best basketball of the year right now and comes into the tournament with some momentum. The Volunteers won five of their last six games, with that one loss coming to Florida in a tough SEC tournament game. Jarnell Stokes has been sensational this season, recording 19 double-doubles. The Minutemen have been inconsistent towards the end of the season and don’t have a win over a quality opponent since February 21 against VCU.
(14) Mercer over (3) Duke
If you are looking for one of those deep, shocking upsets, this may be the game you choose. Mercer starts four seniors and has played some tough teams out of conference. The Bears lost to Texas by three early in the year in Austin, defeated Ole Miss at Ole Miss and played Oklahoma tough in Norman. Mercer is a very efficient offensive team, ranking in the top 40 in the country in points per game (25th), assists per game (tenth) and field goal percentage (29th).
Duke has gone through stretches where they have a tough time scoring the basketball. The Blue Devils better be ready for a hungry Mercer team that has four starters looking to make their senior year one to remember.
Potential Key Matchups
Wichita State vs. Kentucky
The Shockers will have to play John Calipari’s freshmen if Kentucky can get past Kansas State in the second round. Kentucky was ranked No. 1 in the country preseason, but throughout the season the Wildcats’ youth was exposed. Although Kentucky is young and inexperienced, that may play to their advantage in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky, an 8-seed, no longer has the expectation to win, especially with the region they have been placed in. On the other hand, Wichita State’s perfect season has the nation watching the Shockers very closely, and the pressure to prove they’re as good as their record says they will now be tested.
Kentucky is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and a big part of Wichita State’s success is scoring second chance points off offensive rebounds. I think Julius Randle and Willie Cauley-Stein can give the Shockers a lot of trouble in the paint. However, the play of the Harrison twins will determine how long Kentucky survives.
Duke vs. Michigan
Michigan and Duke met earlier in the season in the Big Ten/ACC challenge and the Blue Devils emerged victorious. But Michigan is a significantly different team. In the matchup against Duke, Mitch McGary was still healthy and recorded a double-double. However, McGary hasn’t played since mid-December and Michigan has adapted well without him. The Wolverines won 11 of 12 after their loss to Duke and won the Big Ten regular season title.
Duke has played consistent all year but the win over Michigan was at Cameroon Indoor. All eight of the Blue Devils losses have been on the road or at neutral sites. This would be a tremendous Sweet 16 matchup and the winner very well might be headed to Arlington.
Wichita State vs. Louisville
The other Sweet 16 matchup in this region can very well be a rematch between Louisville and Wichita State. Louisville ended the Shockers’ Cinderella story in the Final Four last year, beating them by four in a close game.
Wichita State is 34-0 but the Cardinals might be the hottest team in the country. Russ Smith is better than he was last season and Montrezl Harrell has been unstoppable late in the year. Wichita State hasn’t seen a quality opponent such as Louisville since, well… Louisville last year. Will the Shockers shock the world and get revenge or will the Cardinals prove they are the team to beat again in March?