The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament resulted in an awful lot of chalk, as the Sweet 16 will feature every 1, 2, and 3 seed, and only one double-digit seed in No. 12 Oregon (who haven’t lost in a month and won the Pac-12 tournament).
While that many favorites advancing to the Sweet 16 made for a less entertaining first two rounds, it does set up an extremely enticing second weekend with the best of the best squaring off for a chance at a trip to the Final Four. Hopefully, these matchups deliver on the court as well as they seem to set up on paper.
Thursday night’s games figure to be near polar opposites in terms of game styles from the two early games to the two late games. Florida State and Gonzaga will tip off first, followed in short order by Purdue-Tennessee in a pair of matchups where offense figures to take center stage, while Oregon-Virginia and Texas Tech-Michigan are expected to be much more defensive minded matchups. The point totals in those games agree, as the first two currently sit at 148 and 147, respectively, with the latter two games at 120.5 and 125 each.
Below you’ll find the TV schedule for Thursday’s matchups, as well as all the pertinent betting information (and picks) for the first four Sweet 16 matchups.
No. 4 Florida State (+8, 148) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS
Florida State mashed Murray State in the Round of 32, letting Ja Morant get his but denying his teammates any opportunities to get into a rhythm. Their reward is a Gonzaga team that appears to be firing on all cylinders after cruising through the first two rounds and has more than enough length to deal with the wingspanny ‘Noles. The difference in this game may just be the presence of Brandon Clarke, who will make life difficult at the rim for Florida State. I think this game hovers around the number for the majority, with the Zags pulling away late to cover. Best Bet: Gonzaga -8
No. 3 Purdue (+2, 147) vs. No. 2 Tennessee, 7:29 p.m. ET, TBS
The Vols have nearly blown double-digit leads in each of the first two games of the tournament, but they have managed to stay calm despite some rocky second half moments to reach the Sweet 16. Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams are the real deal and have shown the ability to get critical buckets when needed in tense situations late.
Opposite them is a Purdue team that has dominated its first two games without so much as a sweat against Old Dominion and Villanova. They figure to get that first test against the Vols, but after seeing how Colgate and Iowa have been able to get off clean three-point looks in the second halves, this game may be as simple as how well the Boilermakers, who hit 36.8 percent of threes this season, shoot from distance. Best Bet: Purdue +2
No. 3 Texas Tech (+1.5, 125) vs. No. 2 Michigan, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS
Few teams have been better in March in recent years than the Wolverines, but they’ll face a stiff test in the Red Raiders, which have a potential top-5 pick in the upcoming draft in Jarrett Culver and a defense equal to that of Michigan. These are the two best teams in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, with Texas Tech just edging out Michigan. They’re also the 316th and and 232nd slowest teams in the country in adjusted tempo, so expect a grind it out, halfcourt battle in the late game out West. Best Bet: UNDER 125
No. 12 Oregon (+8.5, 120.5) vs. No. 1 Virginia, 9:57 p.m. ET, TBS
Virginia had its annual scare in the first round against 16-seed Gardner-Webb but exercised their demons from last year’s loss to UMBC to run away with a win. Then they proceeded to handle Oklahoma with ease in the Round of 32 to earn a date with one of the nation’s hottest teams, Oregon. The Ducks have won 10 straight, last losing to UCLA in February, and in the process have turned themselves into a mini-Virginia, with a stifling defense, methodical pace, and simply out-executing their opponents over the course of 40 minutes.
However, it’s rare for the ‘Hoos to lose to teams that try to do what they do, because no one plays Virginia basketball better than Virginia. Oregon’s chances likely hinge on whether they can rely on Louis King and Payton Pritchard to shoot their way past Virginia — and if Kenny Wooten can continue to play out of his mind against a very tough big in Mamadi Diakite. I’ve gone back and forth on this, but I fear this may be where Oregon goes cold and Virginia outclasses them to the tune of a double-digit win. Best Bet: Virginia -8.5
