It’s no secret that Terry Rozier wants to get paid this summer. And with Kyrie Irving potentially signing the full five-year max this offseason, Boston may not be the team to back up the Brinks truck. Other teams must consider whether Rozier’s performance in last year’s Playoffs — where he averaged 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game in Irving’s absence — is a marker of things to come or a blip on the radar screen.
The start to the season has been concerning for Rozier, to say the least. He is shooting 35.5 percent from the field — due largely in part to 32.5 percent shooting from two-point range combined with midrange shots compiling a career-high 44 percent of his attempts. Rozier is shooting just 13-of-42 (31 percent) on jumpers off the dribble this year and, while he will likely rise above 29 percent from midrange, his shooting at the rim is more in line with his career norms.
Rozier is shooting just 44 percent at the rim this season and has never topped 49 percent in his career. He tends to shy away from contact at the rim, which can lead to some wild attempts and goes far to explain why he’s drawing shooting fouls on a mere four percent of his shot attempts.
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Rozier is no match for Amir Johnson’s verticality here. Note that Rozier has the crafty moves to get to the basket. Watch here as he snakes the ball screen to keep the defender on his back.
But his overly-ambitious take-off from the dotted line puts him in a precarious position to finish the layup. He is bothered by Zaza Pachulia — whom nobody has ever written home about as a shot blocker — giving a token contest outside the restricted area and flings up a wild right handed attempt as a result.
The issue with Rozier’s inability to finish at the rim is that he may also be aware of his shortcomings. Through ten games, the Louisville product has attempted a mere nine shots at the rim. This accounts for just 12 percent of his shots after attempting a career-low 22 percent of his shots there last season. No clip is more indicative of that hesitancy than this one, from the fourth quarter against the Pistons. Rozier refuses the ball screen, causing Jose Calderon and Stanley Johnson to miscommunicate.
As a result, Al Horford has Andre Drummond walled off at the rim.
Rozier has a wide open path to an easy dunk but instead opts for a stepback two pointer and clanks it off the back iron. Hard to imagine that decision played well in the film room. When Rozier does get to the rim, he has the ability to put it down with authority. Watch as he uses a nice hesitation move to freeze Ish Smith on his back before jetting forward for the slam.
Rozier’s at his best when he can use his athleticism to his advantage. After scoring 1.18 points per possession in transition last season, he has scored 21 points on 13 transition possessions in the early going. In addition to facing less resistance at the rim, Rozier can also maximize his catch and shoot opportunities either running the wing or trailing the play.
Despite his struggles off the bounce, Rozier is 9-of-19 on Catch and Shoot threes this season. This positive start follows his success off the catch both last regular season (40.3 percent on 2.9 per game) and in the Playoffs (46.6 percent on 3.8 per game). But both positive indicators are signs of a larger issue for teams looking to invest in Rozier long-term. He appears to be significantly better as an off-ball guard but his 6’0 frame makes that proposition nearly impossible in the modern NBA.
Take his success in transition, for example. Rozier has also been a great rebounder for his position, never finishing below the 94th percentile in DREB percentage in his career. Perfect for grab and go opportunities, one would think.
But the Celtics have never played faster with him on the floor in his career. While it may be a team philosophy — Boston is playing as the 10th slowest team off defensive rebounds this year — it’s not clear that playing faster in Rozier’s minutes would translate to more offensive success. The Celtics have scored worse in transition with him on the floor in each of his three professional seasons.
The lack of team success appears to be indicative of Rozier’s questionable role as the lead handler for a team. His assist percentage has dropped to a career-low 15.1 percent this year and he has never finished above 18.2 percent (16th percentile for point guards) in his career. The numbers bring to bear what appears to be a gap in his decision-making ability with the ball in his hands.
Watch here as Boston clearly tries to set up Spain (stack) pick and roll following this baseline out-of-bounds set. Baynes comes up to set the ball screen while Hayward (the inbounder) is setting up the back screen on Baynes’ man.
But rather than running the set, Rozier rejects the ball screen and dribbles into a pull-up three-point attempt that he misses.
Another clip where you can see Rozier calling for Irving to come off the weakside stagger as he brings the ball up the floor. The set is successful — look as Irving’s gravity opens Morris on the wing.
But Rozier again rejects the action and opts for a difficult midrange jumper that doesn’t fall. Late in the Toronto game above, Rozier caught the ball on the right wing down eight points with a mere 100 seconds to go. Boston needed a three to have any hope of extending the game in this situation.
Rozier gets an initial step on the late-closing Kyle Lowry and a beautiful cut by Irving draws the attention of Kawhi Leonard on the weakside. As a result, Tatum is open for three on the left wing (you can see him call for the ball), but again Rozier opts for a difficult shot attempt.
Ultimately, Rozier has clearly defined strengths and weaknesses as a player. His athleticism allows him to be a successful one-man show in transition and his ability to shoot it off the catch has remained consistently excellent for nearly two seasons. But his decision-making with the ball, inability to get to the rim, and penchant for taking midrange jumpers creates a difficult question when it comes to his long-term viability as an starting point guard.
Given the money Rozier desires this summer, he would be nothing short of that in a new situation. While it’s still too early this year to make definitive decisions on his future, there are real warning signs for opposing teams considering shelling out that contract in June.
