Hello, friends. I really don’t know what to say anymore. We were three breakaway scores in the final minute of three different games from a .500 week — and a fumbled XP and timeout disaster by UTSA away from actually making some money — yet we continue to hemorrhage funds from our bankroll.
Week 4 is here and hopefully can bring us a reprieve from the disastrous start to the season, but just to remind everyone how awful it’s been, here’s a recap of last week and the season.
Last Week: 6-12
This Season: 25-44-2
Congrats to anyone who just blindly fades this column on the enormity of your success. Maybe this week we can begin the long, arduous journey to some money. Let’s begin, shall we.
(Note: Lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook as of Thursday afternoon)
Houston (+4.5) at Tulane (Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
I love what I’ve seen from Tulane to start the season, but Houston has now played two good to great Power 5 teams fairly competitively and should be looking at this as an opportunity to pick up an important conference win. D’Eriq King is electric and is the best QB Tulane’s seen yet, and I think they’ll be able to score on this good Wave defense enough to win this game (I have a little ML action, but will take the points in the column).
Air Force (+7) at Boise State (Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Planes are coming off a big win at Colorado and I certainly have my concerns about a letdown here, but I think they can keep this inside a touchdown. Boise traditionally has not been great as a big home favorite ATS, and I would shop this because 7.5 is still readily available at various establishments on and offshore.
ULM at Iowa State UNDER 56 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Clones need a bit of a statement win here, and ULM ought to afford them that opportunity. Now, they did take FSU to overtime in a wild game in Tallahassee, but Iowa State’s defense is much better and while I’m not sure the Clones will cover 18.5, I do think they keep the Warhawks out of the end zone enough for this Under to come in.
Central Michigan at Miami (FL) UNDER 48 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Canes desperately need a strong performance here and this defense will be looking to pitch a shutout for a second straight week. I think they can come close to achieving that goal here and with the Chips likely not finding paydirt very often, I’ll take the Under.
Michigan State at Northwestern (+9) (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
I’m a little worried that the Under is so popular despite being down at 38, but if we aren’t taking a near double-digit dog at home in a game with a 38 point total then what are we doing here? Gimme Fitz’s boys to keep this inside a touchdown.
Western Michigan at Syracuse (-5) (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
I bet against WMU and on Cuse last week and lost both so naturally I’ll do it again here. If Syracuse cannot cover five at home against the Broncos, who got smacked two weeks ago in East Lansing before destroying my Georgia State Panthers, then contract the program. It’s time to circle the wagons in the Don’t Call It The Carrier Dome.
Boston College at Rutgers UNDER 57.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Boston College just got blown out by Kansas, and that is very, very concerning. But this is Rutgers, and we need to see some defense here. Give me the Under and let’s hope the Dudes show some pride on defense.
Michigan (+3.5) at Wisconsin and UNDER 45 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Michigan’s been bad compared to expectations, but is still 2-0. Wisconsin’s looked dominant against bad teams and is also 2-0. It’s Circle The Wagons Saturday so you know we’re taking the road dog here that was favored by almost a touchdown when game of the year odds came out prior to the season. Also, snatch that Under as we’ve got serious crosswinds coming in Madison.
Auburn at Texas A&M (-3.5) (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Aggies are a very good run defense. Auburn has shown no ability to throw the ball consistently. That combination tells me to take Texas A&M at home here to win by a touchdown or more.
Bowling Green (+11.5) at Kent State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Kent State can’t be a double-digit favorite in any game. I don’t care if it’s Bowling Green’s awful self. Principles.
Kentucky (+6) at Mississippi State (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
The Cats should’ve beaten Florida last week and they looked pretty good with Sawyer Smith under center. Mississippi State has QB questions of their own after losing to K-State at home, and I just don’t have any faith in Clanga right now. Give me nearly a full touchdown with Kentucky.
South Carolina at Missouri UNDER 61.5 (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
I’m not a big fan of either of these offenses and, well, 61.5 is a lot of points. This number’s dropping so get it quick (I liked it better at 63.5 earlier in the week when I picked it up), but I’ll still ride with it here.
Colorado (+8.5) at Arizona State and UNDER 49 (Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Hello! Herm’s here. Arizona State Unders are our greatest principle right now, and if the game’s going to be low scoring, I’ll take the Buffs to cover 8.5.
SUPER TILT PLAY OF THE WEEK
Utah State at San Diego State UNDER 54.5 (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET)
SDSU and the Under are a match made in heaven. When you’re looking for that late night chase, the ‘Tecs are ready to help by playing slow as molasses.
