Hello, friends. It’s Week 2 of the college football season which means we’ve got a data point on every team around the country and we can start setting more realistic expectations for this year.
Teams will obviously improve and regress from their first performance, but it’s a nice baseline to have, especially for the purposes of creating your principles and leans for the 2019 season as a gambler. Week 1 started off well for us but the night slate was a dark place prior to the Auburn miracle to close the night. At the end of it all, we limped home a game under .500 for the second straight week so we have some work to do moving forward.
Last Week: 10-12-2
This Season: 11-14-2
We are once again all over the place this week as we try to work our way back to profitable, and we finally get the return of the Super Tilt Play of the Week. Let’s get to it.
Note: Lines courtesy of Westgate Superbook as of just after midnight on Saturday.
Vanderbilt (+7.5) at Purdue and UNDER 55 (12:00 p.m. ET)
We had the ‘Dores last week against Georgia and lost by a field goal. They were competitive, though, with the Dawgs after getting blitzed early and while I’m not really high on this offense (hence the Under) I do expect them to hang around and be competitive with a Purdue team that’s licking its wounds after allowing a crazy comeback by Nevada.
Army at Michigan (-22) (12:00 p.m. ET)
Army did not look good against Rice last week offensively (who just got blasted by Wake on Friday) and I fear our troops might be in for a really rough afternoon against a Michigan team that will be looking to clean up some mistakes it made in the opener. Michigan has a former Navy coach on staff, so they’ll be well versed in triple option prep and I think they run away with this one.
Syracuse (+1) at Maryland (12:00 p.m. ET)
This line swung five points from opening with the Orange as a three-point favorite, but has crept back towards it being a Pick. I know ‘Cuse didn’t look good against Liberty and Maryland beat the hell out of Howard, but I think the Orange are the better team so I’m happy to take the candy with them.
Northern Illinois at Utah UNDER 44.5 (1:00 p.m. ET)
How about a sleepy 11 a.m. local kick between some teams that are built for a rock fight. Utah’s pace is incredibly slow and their defense is terrifying. I don’t see NIU having a ton of success offensively and Utah rarely scores in bunches, so I think this could end up in 34-7 territory. It’ll be sweaty, but the clock should melt in this game and we’ll hopefully get to the window before too many points hit the scoreboard.
New Mexico State (+55) at Alabama (4:00 p.m. ET)
What is a man without principles? Nothing. Fifty-five (55) points in an FBS football game means I’m required by law to take the underdog and I’ll live with whatever happens. Bama could be mad after a sluggish opener against Duke (that they still dominated), but I think this might just be a 52-3 game and we hold onto our butts for the whole second half hoping the third stringers for the Tide don’t do anything crazy.
San Diego State at UCLA UNDER 45 (4:15 p.m. ET)
SDSU won a game 6-0 last week. UCLA’s offense was painful to watch against Cincinnati. I don’t think it’ll be as easy as that would make it seem, but the Under is simply the right side to be on here.
ULM at Florida State (-22) (5:00 p.m. ET)
The ‘Noles should be furious after blowing that lead against Boise and I expect a bit of a statement performance against ULM here to cover a pretty big number.
Wyoming (-7) at Texas State (7:00 p.m. ET)
The Cowboys beat Mizzou last week by running the ball down their throats, and I expect them to have plenty of success doing that against Texas State.
BYU at Tennessee (-3.5) (7:00 p.m. ET)
If the Vols don’t win and cover in this one, Jeremy Pruitt is going to get thrown in the river by fans. You can’t lose to (my) Georgia State Panthers and not have a gut check performance. This game will probably be hideous, but you’ve gotta take the Vols.
UCF at FAU (+12.5) (7:00 p.m. ET)
I was actually fairly impressed with FAU in the second half against Ohio State. That offense found some rhythm and started making plays, and I think Lane knows how big this game is. I don’t trust Brandon Wimbush much at all and like where this number has gotten to.
Coastal Carolina (+7) at Kansas and UNDER 53 (7:00 p.m. ET)
For the second straight week I’m giving out the Chanticleers and the Under. They split last time, coming up a point shy of a cover and a half-point under the total, but I just don’t see how either of these teams are going to score much and as such, I think it’s tight.
Western Michigan (+15) at Michigan State and UNDER 46.5 (7:30 p.m. ET)
I’m just going to keep taking double-digit dogs against the Spartans, because they simply like to win in gentlemanly fashion and move on. Last week they shut it down after taking a healthy lead against Tulsa and took it to cover town, and I think Western Michigan can do the same thing here. Sparty’s defense is still very stingy and I expect it to come in Under as well.
LSU at Texas (+6.5) (7:30 p.m. ET)
How many straight weeks can we bet against LSU and lose? Let’s find out. Tom Herman as a dog is 13-2-1 ATS and at that point you just take him with points blindly and hope that streak continues. I’m genuinely terrified of this LSU team, but I have to take Herman and the points despite hating it.
Tulane (+17) at Auburn and UNDER 51.5 (7:30 p.m. ET)
The Green Wave torched FIU last week and I’m pretty excited about this group. Auburn’s defense is a whole different animal, but I think Tulane can keep this thing close in what will be a low scoring affair on the Plains.
Arkansas (+6) at Ole Miss (7:30 p.m. ET)
After watching the Rebels against Memphis I cannot allow them to be favorites against an SEC team. Arkansas is not good, I want to make it abundantly clear that I’m aware of that, but Ole Miss is equally bad and shouldn’t be six-point favorites.
Eastern Michigan (+15) at Kentucky and UNDER 52.5 (7:30 p.m. ET)
A horrendous push last week in Kentucky-Toledo hasn’t deterred me here. I still want to take Kentucky Unders and the emus were fiesty last week against my Chanticleers, so I’ll take them to keep it to two touchdowns or less.
Tulsa (-6.5) at San Jose State (9:00 p.m. ET)
Tulsa wasn’t impressive against Michigan State by any means, but I feel they’re better than a very not good SJSU squad and should win by a touchdown or more.
SUPER TILT PLAYS AND PARLAY OF THE WEEK
Stanford at USC UNDER 43.5 (10:30 p.m. ET)
California at Washington UNDER 43.5 (10:30 p.m. ET)
Minnesota at Fresno State UNDER 46.5 (10:30 p.m. ET)
Take all three of ’em, play the Unders straight and then also parlay them. Let’s get weird. The Pac-12 After Dark Unders in the 40s for your shorties parlay of the week is going to be live. USC and Stanford in a battle of backup QBs. Cal’s offense is miserable. Minnesota and Fresno played in a rock fight last year and neither offense looked especially good in Week 1. I want all of them. We’re going to crazy town together on Saturday night in the wee hours of the morning and I don’t care.