Conference championship week is upon us in college football and with it, the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings before football’s Final Four is set in stone.
The rankings delivered relatively little in the way of surprises (Auburn jumping Oklahoma to No. 2 would qualify as the biggest one near the top), but it did offer a glimpse at what is to come when the final rankings come out next week and what teams need to do to cement their spot in the Playoff. Here are the rankings as they stand heading into the weekend.
1. Clemson
2. Auburn
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Miami (FL)
8. Ohio State
9. Penn State
10. USC
11. TCU
12. Stanford
13. Washington
14. UCF
I stop there because really after 11 nothing matters, and to show that being an undefeated Group of Five team means nothing. Thus, sadly, the Knights will not factor into our chaos scenarios in any way, shape, or form.
While the scenario that makes the committee’s job the easiest is simply having the top four teams all win their conference championship games, that’s no fun. The job for the teams in the top four, along with Miami (FL) and Georgia, are also easy: Win and you’re in.
However, there are a number of scenarios that would spark all manner of debate and controversy when the final rankings are released. We will walk you through those chaos scenarios below, ranked from “spicy” to “causing the internet to burn down.”
4. Clemson, Georgia, Wisconsin, TCU
How we get here: Clemson wins the ACC Championship game by any margin. Georgia beats up Auburn in the SEC Championship game (38-17). Wisconsin wins the Big Ten and TCU destroys Oklahoma. I’m talking 56-10. An absolute BEATEMDOWN. USC beats Stanford handily (42-27).
How the committee makes its decisions: The top three are automatically set by these results. That part is very mild. The spiciness comes in the form of TCU demolishing Oklahoma, USC winning convincingly, and the committee having to figure it out from there.
The committee has valued Oklahoma pretty highly throughout the season and if TCU, currently No. 11, were to crush them, they would fly up the rankings. The question would be whether TCU, which would have two losses but a conference championship and a massive win over an Oklahoma team the committee respects, would be able to jump from 11 to 4.
The good news for TCU would be Nos. 2, 3, 6, 7, and 8 would all have lost and they’d likely move ahead of them (Auburn having three losses, even with two coming at the hands of the top two teams, would have to preclude them from staying in). No. 9 Penn State certainly gets leaped having not played, leaving the battle for the fourth spot between TCU, USC (one spot above TCU this week with a conference title as well, but in a less impressive result), and Alabama.
The Tide won’t play this week, meaning they’ll have no conference title and they won’t have a win over anyone in the top-15 in the country. TCU, meanwhile, would have a win over Oklahoma and a Big 12 title. I think TCU would move ahead of USC and, based off of how much the committee has said it values conference titles, would push it ahead of Alabama into the fourth spot.
What happens after: Tide fans are upset. USC fans (and the Pac-12 in general) are very upset, but this scenario is their only hope for getting in. Even then, I think TCU vaults them. If they were to put Alabama in ahead of both, the Pac-12 cries foul and the Big 12 loses its mind because they added a conference title game for exactly this reason. The ratings for Clemson-TCU and Auburn-Wisconsin aren’t great, and ESPN prays for a Clemson-Auburn rematch in the title game.
3. Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State
How we get here: Clemson wins the ACC title game. Georgia blasts Auburn in the SEC title game (38-17). Oklahoma wins in the Big 12 title game in less than impressive fashion (31-28). Ohio State railroads Wisconsin for the Big Ten title (42-10), and the Pac-12 Championship game doesn’t really matter here.
How the committee makes its decisions: Clemson holds fast at No. 1. Georgia leaps Oklahoma into the No. 2 spot by crushing the now-former No. 2 team, and Oklahoma wins a tight one against No. 11 to keep the Sooners at No. 3. All of that happens without much controversy (the difference in being 2 and 3 is “home field” in the semifinal). What makes this juicy is the ensuing Ohio State-Alabama argument.
The Buckeyes would have a more impressive win on their resume than Alabama, and a loss to Oklahoma is negligible. Auburn losing to Georgia handily makes Alabama’s loss look slightly worse and the debate rages about who deserves No. 4.
The Buckeyes getting rolled by Iowa will always look bad, but they would have a conference championship and a win over a previously top-4 team. Alabama’s best wins would be over Mississippi State and LSU, well outside the top-15 — Florida State imploding this year really hurts Bama. The committee has said conference titles matter and, like with TCU, I think in this scenario the Buckeyes vault the Tide.
What happens after: Once again, Tide fans are upset and we get tons of thinkpieces about Ohio State making the playoff despite losing by a ton to Iowa. Ratings are great because it’s four national brands with really intriguing matchups.
2. Auburn, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Clemson
How we get here: Auburn beats Georgia handily, again (42-24). Miami beats Clemson in a close game where both teams look good (31-28). Oklahoma wins the Big 12 Championship easily. Stanford wins the Pac-12 title, and Ohio State struggles with Wisconsin but wins (23-21).
How the committee makes its decisions: Auburn and Oklahoma both move up a spot, that part’s easy. Miami jumps to No. 3, also a pretty easy move (there is really only one super chaos scenario that creates tough choices for No. 3, and it’s below). All we’re left with is a great debate at No. 4.
Clemson has a win over Auburn, who is now the No. 1 team in the country. That’s big. Ohio State has a conference title, but it didn’t look good in the win over Wisconsin. Alabama just sat there and the loss to Auburn looks better now that the Tigers are in the top spot. Those three teams all have arguments to be in. Conference championships matter a lot, but can the committee overlook the loss to Iowa?
The committee has already said it’s pretty much thrown out the Syracuse loss for Clemson because Tigers quarterback Kelly Bryant was injured, so the loss to Iowa, in the committee’s eyes, is a worse loss. I think this shakes out with it being Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State at 4-5-6, giving the ACC two teams in the playoff.
What happens after: The debate to expand for eight teams fires up again, with the Big Ten now joining the Pac-12 and Big 12 in anger over snubs in recent years. Alabama fans are upset, once again, but at least they can lord their No. 5 ranking over Ohio State. Buckeyes fans go crazy and Penn State fans laugh because this happened to them last year. Ratings are great because it’s four teams with crazy fun offenses in the Playoff.
1. Georgia, Miami, Clemson, Alabama
How we get here: Georgia absolutely destroys Auburn in the SEC Championship game. I’m talking Ohio State in 2014 type destruction, a 56-0 final. Once again, Miami wins a highly entertaining, highly competitive ACC championship over Clemson (34-31). TCU wins an ugly game over Oklahoma (24-20). Ohio State wins an ugly game over Wisconsin (15-12, super duper B1G stuff). Stanford beats USC by a touchdown (28-21). Suddenly, the committee is in a serious pickle.
How the committee makes its decisions: Clearly, Georgia jumps to No. 1, being above Miami and having the most impressive conference championship win. Miami jumps to No. 2, having won their title game over the previous No. 1 team. And then, chaos.
Clemson lost, but it was a close loss to the No. 7 team in the country and the Tigers looked good in doing so. Neither Ohio State nor TCU looked impressive in their wins, Wisconsin and Oklahoma are out by default being Nos. 3 and 4 and losing (and the Oklahoma loss makes Ohio State look worse having lost to the Sooners).
Then you get to Auburn and Alabama. It’s possible Auburn gets in over Alabama here, but Auburn having three losses and making it would be incredible. That’d still earn this ranking because you’d have two SEC and two ACC teams in the Playoff with one having three losses and coming off a 56-point loss. The semifinals are literally rematches of the conference title games and a grudge match for Georgia and Auburn.
However, to make this the true king of the chaos kingdom, Alabama jumps Auburn because of how awful Auburn looked against Georgia, meaning the Tigers miss out on the playoff while two teams they beat get in.
What happens after: The playoff expands to eight next season because the Pac-12, Big 12, and Big Ten all go crazy. Auburn fans riot in the streets and start burning things to the ground because they’d miss the playoffs despite having beaten two of the teams in it. Ratings are fine because you have four big brands, but nationally, interest wanes a bit because it’s all regionally centralized in the Southeast.
(Note: Earlier version had Washington in the Pac-12 title game, not Stanford because I’m dumb. That has been fixed. The scenarios remain the same.)
