Hello, friends. We narrowly avoided our first non-winning week in well over a month thanks to our Super Tilt Play of the Week cashing yet again, as the Cal Bears got it done on the dang field to move our late night record to 5-0 and salvage an ever-so-slight winning week (+0.28 units, baby!).
This week is similar to last week in that there aren’t a ton of marquee matchups to be had, and as such, we look at a few off the radar games to fill out our card. It’s cupcake week in the SEC and as such, we are ignoring college football’s finest conference because the lines are hideous and the few SEC v. SEC matchups are less than desirable. Before we get to this week’s picks, let’s take a quick look back at how last week went and where we stand for the season.
Last Week: 8-7
Full Season: 92-80-2
Let’s get to these winners! As always, lines come from the Westgate SuperBook.
Nebraska (+1) vs. Michigan State and UNDER 49 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
First off, we’ve got WUNDER conditions in Lincoln, with a high of 32 and 16-22 mph winds expected throughout the game. That’s miserable football weather and likely means we’ll see the ground game take over. As such, we’re on the Under knowing fully well that Nebraska Overs have been like gold this year, but then again, they’ve yet to play the Spartans.
Michigan State’s offense is as bad as can be, and while they’ll likely find some success against a Nebraska unit that is shaky, they just don’t have any consistent explosive play possibilities. They’ll break out a trick play and we’ll have to hope, like last week, a penalty brings it back or the wind ruins the double-reverse pass that’s inevitably coming. But against Michigan and Ohio State, they’ve produced nothing on offense without that trickery. The Huskers offense likely will struggle more than usual against a good Spartan defense and with the wind, but I believe way more in them and think they get the job done in the home finale.
Wake Forest (+7) vs. Pittsburgh (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Deacs are spunky and things have been going so well for Pitt, who control their destiny in the Coastal, that it’s hard not to think this will be a spot where they find themselves in a dogfight. I kinda wish Wake hadn’t won on the field last week in Raleigh because this line would likely be higher, but I still believe in the Clawfense to get this thing done.
Ohio State (-14.5) at Maryland (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Buckeyes looked hideous a week ago in their win over Michigan State as they took us to Covertown, USA, but I think the Maryland defense will bring a welcome reprieve for the Ohio State offense that allows them to get loose and feel some good vibes heading into the Michigan game. This feels like a chance to send a message to Michigan and the Playoff committee that they are still dangerous and can beat up on a mediocre team, so I’ll lay the points.
Middle Tennessee State (+16.5) at Kentucky (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Blue Raiders are a pretty good football team, and while I’m not sure how much they’ll be able to score on Kentucky, I’m not totally sold on Kentucky’s offense being anything other than broken right now. I’ll take the candy here with a good G5 team to at least compete with the ‘Cats in Lexington.
FIU (-6) at Charlotte (Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Just trust me here. Golden Panthers by double-digits. You won’t see a minute of this game, but that’s fine. Enjoy the winners.
Syracuse (+10.5) vs. Notre Dame (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET)
The game is in Yankee Stadium. For whatever reason, they insist on doing these games in places not built for football (ok, the reason is money). Notre Dame should win here, but Syracuse is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 7 or more points. So, yes, I’ll ride with Dino and take the candy.
Navy (-6) vs. Tulsa (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Remember early in the season when Tulsa gave Texas a scare and we thought they might be a feisty bunch? Yeah, they’re not, and they’re not going to enjoy a chilly Annapolis afternoon getting cut blocked by the Midshipmen. There will be points scored here by both teams, but I think Navy eventually pulls away.
Miami FL at Virginia Tech UNDER 51.5 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Miami’s offense is a dumpster fire and this total is inflated because Virginia Tech got murderballed by Pitt last week. I think this should be in the mid-to-high 40s, not the 50s, so I’ll happily take the Under.
Virginia (+5) at Georgia Tech (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
We’ll stick with ACC teams from the Commonwealth and ride with the ‘Hoos down in Bobby Dodd. Virginia is 3-1 ATS as a ‘dog this season, and I think they’ll get this one on the dang field.
Texas Tech (-6.5) at Kansas State and UNDER 57 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
It’s our other WUNDER this week as it’s going to be cold and windy in Manhattan. One might think that bodes well for the Wildcats, but I’m going to still ride with the Red Raiders. I just think K-State is a bad football team and are at least a full touchdown worse than Texas Tech. I’ll take the Red Raiders to win here 34-17.
UCLA (+3.5) vs. USC (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Trojans are done. They don’t care about playing for their coach. They don’t care about this season. They’re done. We saw that in the second half against Cal as they blew a 14-point lead. So, as such, I’ll happily take the candy with Chip’s boys who are looking to snap a three-game losing streak after coming up just short in Tempe a week ago.
Air Force at Wyoming UNDER 41.5 (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
The high in Laramie on Saturday is 20 with snow showers expected and winds up to 16 mph. Now, WUNDERs don’t apply to option teams like Air Force, but methinks this will be a field position battle in the snow. I’m pumped to watch this game because I love snow football from the comfort of my heated living room. Take the Under.
Cal (+2) vs. Stanford (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
My Cal Bears are home ‘dogs to a mediocre Stanford team and are looking to win this rivalry game for the first time in nearly a decade. I’ll rock with Cal again, because, quite frankly, I just don’t think Stanford’s good.
Iowa State (+3) at Texas (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
It’s amazing that this game is on the Longhorn Network, so best of luck finding that on your ol’ cable provider. Anyways, you all know that I love my ‘Clones, particularly as an underdog (4-1 ATS) and that fading Tom Herman as a favorite is also a principle (2-5 ATS). That’s two principles that align, and as such we will have the Cyclones on Saturday night.
SUPER TILT PLAY OF THE WEEK
Oregon (-3.5) vs. Arizona State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Ducks are a very different team when they’re at home compared to on the road. I think Justin Herbert and company have a good night against Herm’s boys from the desert. I’ll lay the points here with the Ducks and put my perfect late night record on the line once again.
