Hello friends. Week 1 of the college football season wasn’t an ideal start for the brand and as such, we’ve had to adjust our principles and expectations for various teams after a rough showing at the book.
While Week 1 was full of marquee matchups, Week 2 features only two ranked matchups — No. 3 Georgia at No. 24 South Carolina and No. 17 USC at No. 10 Stanford — which means the casual fan interest may wane a bit. That doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to find on the odds sheet, and that’s what we’re hoping to do as we look to battle back to .500 this week in order to start making money this season.
We’re going back to the well with a few teams that provided us winners in Week 1, as well as introducing favorites and Overs to the column for the first time this season as I have 16 plays for some unknown reason. I know, some of you need a moment to take all that in. Let’s first take a look at the miserable record I’ve been staring at all week and then dive in to this week’s selections (as always, lines courtesy the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook).
Last Week: 5-9
Season: 5-9
Liberty (+8) at Army (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Liberty smacked Old Dominion in their first game as an FBS team, and I still don’t think people respect the Flames quite enough. Extremely bad politics aside, they can play football and Army had some serious ball-handling issues in their first game without Ahmad Bradshaw. I fear with a new quarterback it’s going to take some time for Army to get things rolling again on offense and I look for Liberty to possibly get to 2-0 this season, but at the least keep it inside a touchdown.
Nevada at Vanderbilt UNDER 60.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Shop this around because it’s available at 62 in some spots, but Vanderbilt’s defense looked the part last week holding MTSU to seven. Nevada’s a different animal for sure, but I don’t see the ‘Dores scoring more than 31 or so and I think they’ll hold Nevada in the 20s. I trust Derek Mason’s squad to try and keep the pace down on offense and to play physical on defense in this one to hold this Under.
Mississippi State (-7.5) at Kansas State (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Kansas State isn’t good. I know there’s the fear of Bill Snyder magic kicking in here, but I think that is typically reserved for Big 12 play. The boys from Starkville will be ready, and Nick Fitzgerald is back under center and will be looking to make up for lost time. I think Clanga runs this up and wins by double digits.
Duke (+2.5) at Northwestern and OVER 47.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Yes, that’s an Over you see right there. Get out the fainting couch. The Blue Devils looked pretty good on both sides of the ball against Army, while Northwestern’s defense struggled with Rondale Moore and Purdue. I like Duke to go in and possibly win here, but at the least cover here in what will probably be a higher scoring game than most expect.
Michigan (-28) vs. Western Michigan (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
People are down on the Wolverines after a tough game against Notre Dame in a loss. I think we’re in “get right” mode here, and Shea Patterson will light up a Broncos team that couldn’t stay in front of Syracuse. WMU came roaring back in the third quarter of that game with 300 yards in one quarter against the Orange to make things tight, but I don’t see them doing much of anything against a very, very good Michigan defense that’ll be looking to put together four full quarters of great football after a slow start in South Bend. Michigan, big.
Oklahoma (-30) vs. UCLA (Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
I know, two massive favorites is completely against the brand, but in case you missed it, Oklahoma’s offense is filthy again and that defense can run. Kyler Murray is the real deal (funny how that happens to QBs that escape the grasp of Kevin Sumlin the past few years), and if you missed it, Chip Kelly’s very young UCLA team has some serious issues. The main issue is up front, where the offensive line is an abject disaster. That doesn’t bode well in Norman, where Oklahoma may go for some style points against their lone Power 5 non-conference opponent. I see a beatemdown in our future, where we’re just fading late TDs against the reserves of the Sooners.
Kansas at Central Michigan UNDER 49 (3:00 p.m. ET)
Are you irreparably broken as a football fan? Then join me for Kansas at Central Michigan, in the saddest football game of Week 2. We’re taking the Under and expecting pure pain and misery. These teams suck and hopefully the offenses suck worse than the defenses. Why am I giving this out? Send help.
Buffalo (+4) at Temple (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Temple lost to Villanova at home in their opener. I kinda wish they’d won that game in a squeaker, because we might have a better line here (shop it, because it’s still 5 some places), but even still I’ll ride with Buffalo. The Bulls have themselves a pretty good quarterback, and I think we’re entering some lean times in Philly for the Owls.
Georgia at South Carolina UNDER 56 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Georgia has some serious weapons on offense, but South Carolina has done a good job under Will Muschamp of building a talented defense. I think they can keep the Dawgs reasonably in check and we know Georgia’s defense can get after it. I love a good SEC Under when the head coaches are defensive guys, so we’ll hope for a punting exhibition in Columbia.
Arkansas State (+37) at Alabama (Saturday, 3:3o p.m. ET)
Yes, I know Alabama lit up Louisville. Yes, Tua Tagovailoa is a monster. However, Alabama traditionally plays nice with lower tier teams that come to Tuscaloosa. That’s not to say they won’t be up four touchdowns at the half, but I’d expect a lot of Jalen Hurts in the second half and a lot of reserve time for the Tide defense. This won’t be a fun one and I wouldn’t suggest even checking in on it until like 6:00 p.m. ET, but it’s the right side based on trends.
Memphis (-7) at Navy (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The defense at Navy is, well, porous. Hawaii lit them up to the tune of 59 last week in Honolulu and maybe we get a different Midshipmen squad back home, but I still think the Tigers are going to pile on the points. The question is whether Memphis gets enough stops to win this by more than a touchdown, so there will be backdoor action in play and a healthy sweat, but I do believe Memphis will pull away and win comfortably.
UMass (+2.5) at Georgia Southern (Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET)
I genuinely don’t know if you’ll even be able to watch this game, but Georgia Southern isn’t the Georgia Southern of old and UMass, while they got rocked by Boston College, isn’t as bad as they looked last week. I like the Minutemen to get it done on the road in a bounce back effort, but you’ll probably have to just refresh your score app to see how it’s going.
Kentucky at Florida UNDER 51 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
This game is going to be gross. The Gators smoked Charleston Southern, and the defense looks very good once again. However, the offense was still a bit of a mess and scored a few of their touchdowns by way of CSU’s defense being simply overmatched physically. Kentucky’s not a great defense, but the talent level is much different. I think Kentucky struggles to hit 20 points, and I just don’t see Florida, even with Dan Mullen improving that offense simply through play-calling, being able to rack up points with that much ease.
Penn State at Pittsburgh OVER 55 (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Penn State’s fourth quarter defense over the past two years has been, how do you say, not good. Pitt is going to have chances to score in this game, as we learned from Appalachian State. I think, if nothing else, the Nittany Lions are looking for a get right game in this spot, and Trace McSorely is going to have a big outing against their in-state rivals.
Arizona State (+5.5) vs. Michigan State (Saturday, 10:45 p.m. ET)
HELLO?! HERM’S HERE! Pac-12 After Dark makes a triumphant return to our lives with Sparty vs. Sparky in Tempe, and after the rather disastrous showing from the Spartans against Utah State in which the line play on both sides was far worse than expected, I think they could be in trouble with the Sun Devils who racked up 9.5 sacks last week.
