Hello, friends. I’m pleased to finally be returning to you with my bankroll a little bit higher and, hopefully, your pockets are full as well after a fruitful Week 7.
It could’ve been better, as we had two pushes, but at this point, as my friend Bassy always says at the blackjack table, a push is a win. This week we’re sticking to the sides over totals approach, as we once again got rocked on totals last week. However, I will tell you this, the Wunder principle established by Tom Fornelli is in effect for pretty much every game in the midwest or north of the Carolinas, so this might be the week for all these Overs we’ve been seeing to regress to the mean. Every Under I give out this week is based partially on that principle of it being colder with high winds projected throughout the game.
Before we get to this week’s action, though, let’s look back at our first winning week in a long time.
Last Week: 10-7-2
Full Season: 46-53-2
As always, lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Let’s get to some winners.
Michigan at Michigan State UNDER 41 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The forecast calls for 21 mph winds in East Lansing on Saturday, and a high of 48 degrees. If you’re a coward, pass on this. I won’t blame you. An Under this low isn’t for the weak-minded and soft-spirited. If building character is your style, though, ride with me. This is the sweat you dream of. Two very good defenses. Two not especially good offenses that will have a very difficult time throwing the football and will thus allow the defenses to attack the run. We’re fading special teams scores here and errant ducks from Brian Lewerke and Shea Patterson going the other way. It will not be fun, but it will be profitable, even if only for your soul.
Temple (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati and UNDER 47.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Bearcats have been great all year and are one of eight undefeated teams left in college football. Temple has three losses and has been up and down all year. The Owls are laying 3.5 at home, though, and I’ll take Temple ’cause this line stinks. There are trends that point to Temple too, as undefeated teams that are underdogs this late into the season against three loss teams lose like 80 percent of the time or something. Go Owls.
Also, it’s going to be super windy in Philly on Saturday. Give me the Under here as well.
Oklahoma (-8) at TCU (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Sooners have had a week off to think about things since getting beat by Texas. TCU has looked rather unimpressive since the loss to Ohio State when they had a brief lead and hope of maybe a big season. I think Kyler Murray and the Sooners get right to the tune of a double-digit win in Fort Worth, taking out a bit of frustration on the Frogs.
Auburn (-4) at Ole Miss (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
I’ve been telling you Auburn’s fraudulent for awhile, but Ole Miss is even more so. The Rebels escaped with a miraculous win in Arkansas last week, and their offense is legitimately good. But, no D.K. Metcalf anymore and that defense will make just about anyone look good, even Jarrett Stidham and the Tigers. If they don’t win here, Auburn probably isn’t making it to a bowl game this year. Gus Malzahn’s seat is heating up, which usually means a big Auburn showing is coming. They have to have this win, so I’ll take Auburn to get this by a touchdown or more.
Illinois at Wisconsin UNDER 56.5 (Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The forecast in Madison, Wisconsin on Saturday calls for a high of 42 degrees and winds at 24 mph. Not gusts, steady winds. That’s wreck your whole day winds. These teams will run the dang ball. The clock will wind, and we will profit. Under.
Virginia at Duke UNDER 44.5 (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
It’s also a Wunder. It’s also Virginia and Duke, which have both been an absolute delight of late on the defensive side of the ball. Virginia shut down Miami last week and they’re starting to look like Bronco Mendenhall’s mean-ass BYU teams. Duke stomped all over the Bees last week in Atlanta and have looked feisty on that end all year. I think this might end in the teens, so give me the Under.
Nebraska (-4) vs. Minnesota (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Gophers will be fairly exhausted after the effort they put forth in Columbus last week in making the Buckeyes sweat some. The Huskers have not won a game this season, I know, but they’ve been so close. Their offense has been quite good, it’s just been a struggle defensively. It’s time for Scott Frost to get on the board in Lincoln and he’s going to do it by a touchdown against the Gophers.
Wake Forest (+10) at Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The ‘Noles have been playing much better of late, but I’m not ready to let them be 10-point favorites in conference. Wake’s looked bad, but they’ve had a bye week to get ready for this and I think they’ll keep it to a one-possession game if not win outright on the field. Deacs.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian State UNDER 68 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Appalachian State has allowed more than nine points to one team this season: Penn State. The forecast calls for rain and 17 mph winds on Saturday. Give me the Under.
Memphis (+9.5) at Missouri and UNDER 74 (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
I’ll admit to being a bit afraid of this one. Memphis has not been good away from home this year, but they should’ve won last week and probably would’ve if the skies had not opened up. I’ve not been especially impressed with Drew Lock and this Missouri team this year, and 9.5 is juuuust a bit too many for me to let slide. ALSO, the Columbia, Missouri forecast calls for 22 mph winds on Saturday. It’s going to be touch for these teams to throw it around, and Memphis is really good running the football. Give me the candy and give me the Under.
Georgia Southern (-11.5) at New Mexico State (Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
I don’t know if I’ve ever handed out this many favorites, and it feels a bit yucky, but this should be two touchdowns here. It’s not because the Eagles looked awful in a win last Thursday against Texas State, but the Aggies are really quite bad and are the fifth worst rush defense in the land. That’s bad against Georgia Southern. Give me the Eagles to beat ’em down on the road.
UCF at ECU OVER 64.5 (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
ECU got rocked by Houston last week, but this is an offense that still put up 20 on a good Cougars defense. UCF’s defense is worse than Houston’s, but its offense is much better. This total is like a touchdown too low because UCF and Memphis played in monsoon conditions a week ago so they struggled to score in the second half. It’s supposed to rain some in the afternoon in Greenville but die down at night, and I just think UCF might get close to this one on their own. I don’t give out Overs very often, so cherish this.
UTSA (+16.5) at Southern Miss (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
I’m going way off the grid for some C-USA action. UTSA is bad. They are not this bad, I don’t think. Southern Miss is a fine team, but I don’t think they should be laying almost 17 (if you can get 17 seek out that half point, friends).
Mississippi State (+6.5) at LSU and UNDER 45.5 (Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
LSU rocked Georgia last week and now they’re less than a full touchdown favorite against Mississippi State? Give me the Bulldogs, baby. This line smells, but also Clanga is the real deal on defense. I think this is in the 17-13 range on either side, so I’ll also take the Under. Neither of these offenses has been very explosive this year and rely heavily on the ground game. Both defenses are stout against the run and in obvious passing downs can heat up the quarterback. Last week’s Under lost in disastrous fashion in Baton Rouge because Georgia lost their minds late, but I expect this to stay true to form all game.
Vanderbilt (+12.5) at Kentucky (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
If you had Vanderbilt last week I’d like to send you my most sincere condolences, as that was brutal. Still, are we really letting Kentucky be 12.5-point favorites in conference right now? Vanderbilt’s a competitive team, even if their record isn’t great. The Florida beat was an all-timer on a late field goal, but they led that game 21-3. They almost beat Notre Dame. They’ve hung around in just about every game, because that’s what Derek Mason teams do. Give me the ‘Dores and the candy.
Purdue (+12) vs. Ohio State (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Jeff Brohm is 7-2 as a ‘dog and has won four of those outright on the field. The Buckeyes defense gives up some big chunk plays and Rondale Moore is the most explosive player in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are going to hang around here and get us this cover. BOILER UP.
Oregon (+3) at Washington State (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
I just think the Ducks are a slightly better team than Wazzu, and while it’s going to be rockin’ in Pullman, I still will take the Ducks to cover the three like they did for me last week at home against Washington. This game’s going to be really fun, and I just think Oregon’s got the talent advantage to get this cover.
SUPER TILT PLAY OF THE WEEK
Nevada (+3) at Hawaii (Saturday, 11:59 p.m. ET)
The ultimate late night chase game is whenever Hawaii is playing at home in one of these delightful midnight kicks. Nevada has been sneaky competitive of late and Hawaii has lost its juice from early in the season. If you need one after the late games, fire on the ‘Pack.
