Justin Fields finds himself in no-man’s land as he gets set for his fourth year in the NFL. The former top-10 pick is almost assuredly on his way out of Chicago as they hold the No. 1 overall pick in April’s Draft and are widely expected to take Caleb Williams to be his replacement. However, the Bears are also going to take their time making that decision final, meaning Fields likely won’t get moved until much closer to (or during) the Draft.
That is an issue right now for Fields. The NFL is already an unforgiving place when it comes to providing opportunity. Teams don’t care about the extenuating circumstances that might’ve caused you to struggle, from coaching turnover to a lack of help on a roster. They just care that the production hasn’t measured up to expectations. Add in the desire to move quickly once free agency opens to fill your most important positions — something that is especially true at quarterback — and you end up with Fields sitting in limbo with fewer and fewer potential landing spots.
Fields, for his part, had the best season of his young career in 2023, completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 2,562 yards, 16 touchdowns, and nine interceptions while rushing for 657 yards and 4 TDS. However, the Bears were still a middling team at 5-8 with Fields starting, and while he took strides as a passer, there are still concerns about his willingness to let it rip and inconsistent production. There are games Fields looks like a potential high-end starter and others were he looks like a young quarterback still trying to adapt to the speed of the NFL game.
Entering his fourth year at 25 years old, there’s certainly still time for Fields to hit his full potential, but his biggest issue is he’s due to get paid next year. The going rate for a mid-tier starting quarterback in the NFL is $25 million (Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith) to $35 million (Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Derek Carr). If teams aren’t sold on Fields being a lock to produce like that, they won’t want to give up a lot in a trade and be on the hook to pay him next year, because then you risk having spent decent draft capital on a one-year rental.
That’s why Fields now finds himself in a fairly precarious position as QB jobs dry up with free agency opening and the Draft looming. The Atlanta Falcons were seen as a snug fit for Fields, as he’s an Atlanta-area native, but they paid big money to bring in Kirk Cousins instead. The Steelers were also considered a potential landing spot for Fields, but chose to sign Russell Wilson on a cheap deal. The Vikings, who lost Cousins to the Falcons, quickly scooped up Sam Darnold as their apparent stop-gap quarterback until they can figure out a long-term option, whether that’s Darnold or someone they take in April. The Raiders, which signed Gardner Minshew, are in a similar spot.
That leaves just a handful of options for Fields before he finds himself on the outside looking in, possibly having to go the Geno Smith route to find his footing in the league. Making life harder for Fields (and the reason he’s in this position in the first place) is the fact that this year’s Draft features four QBs many project to be top-12 picks. Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy all could go in the top-10, meaning bad teams that would otherwise be in the mix for a QB on the trade market would rather choose to roll the dice on landing their QB of the future. That’s not because those four are locks to being better than Fields, but because if you get a QB on a rookie deal, it opens up your chances to build out a contender quickly around them by spending money elsewhere.
The only starting jobs currently available are:
- New England Patriots (No. 2 pick)
- Washington Commanders (No. 3 pick)
- Denver Broncos (No. 12 pick)
Any of those three teams could look to trade a second-round pick for Fields and use their first-round selection to give him some weaponry around him — the Pats or Commanders could theoretically use their top-3 picks to pair him with another ex-Buckeye star in receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. However, that seems unlikely because of the financial reasons laid out above and the fact that teams needing quarterbacks tend to take them as much out of fear as out of desire. Passing on a generational quarterback (see: the Bears and Patrick Mahomes) can haunt your franchise for years, and teams are absolutely terrified of that happening. Few will be ridiculed if Fields becomes a star elsewhere for passing on the chance to trade for him, but if Maye or Daniels were to pop somewhere else while Fields stalls out in New England or Washington, they would never hear the end of it.
Is that a thing teams should worry about when building their team? Probably not, but it certainly factors into the calculus. If those three teams all choose to make their quarterback addition through the Draft, the only real hope for Fields is to get traded somewhere he could get into a quarterback competition.
The Titans have a new coaching staff — would they want someone else in the building to compete with Will Levis this year? The Raiders could surprise everyone and trade for Fields to compete with recently-signed Minshew for the starting job, particularly if they don’t end up with a QB of the future at No. 13 overall (or trading up), but that seems unlikely. The Giants just signed Drew Lock to backup Daniel Jones, seemingly removing my favorite potential Fields landing spot from the board of options (I think Brian Daboll would be just about the ideal coach for Fields). Maybe the Saints look to bring in Fields to push Derek Carr now that Jameis Winston is gone, but that’d be a questionable use of resources in New Orleans.
As of now, it seems more likely that Fields is a high-profile backup somewhere next year rather than a starter. That likely sets his timeline back a few years before even getting a chance as a starter again, following the Smith/Darnold/Minshew playbook. That can get you a 1-year “prove it” deal, which can get you a long-term contract. For now, it seems Fields is the latest victim of the NFL’s unforgiving lack of patience, but all it will take is seizing the next opportunity when it arrives to change all of that.
