Thanksgiving has come and gone in the NFL, and we’re left with a Week 13 slate that features six (!) teams on bye. From the standpoint of unearthing five selections, that makes life difficult, but Week 12 was quite solid at 3-2 overall. Admittedly, Week 13 isn’t the strongest, but here we are anyway and we’re bringing a strong 12-week sample with us.
In fact, let’s peek at the progress before handing out the Week 13 action.
- Week 12: 3-2
- 2023 Season: 32-25-3
Come get these winners.
TEASER: Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets (+8.5) over Atlanta Falcons — FanDuel
It’s important to move through two key numbers on both sides here, and it’s a very sound Wong teaser in theory. Dallas is unbeaten at home this season and, while Seattle can be dangerous, I jump at the chance to get the Cowboys laying less than a field goal with how the Seahawks are playing. On the other side, Atlanta is the better team, and I get that, but the Falcons have been quite shaky on the road. The Jets also remain stout defensively, and this has the feel of a rock fight with a total in the low-to-mid 30’s. Is it gross to financially invest in a team led by Tim Boyle? Absolutely, but here we are.
New Orleans Saints (+4.5) over Detroit Lions — FanDuel
This goes against the grain to be sure. The Lions are coming off a high-profile home loss on Thanksgiving, and many are forecasting a bounce-back. That makes sense on some level, but Detroit’s defense has been quietly shaky for several weeks. Acknowledging that the NFC South stinks, this could also be something of a “last stand” for the Saints in an effort to avoid a seventh loss. I think this is a good number to grab on a frisky home underdog.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) over New England Patriots — Widely Available
This is gross. The Chargers have lost three in a row and they are wildly disappointing. But at the same time, I’ve always liked Los Angeles more away from home (from a betting perspective) and the Patriots seem to be utterly dead on the offensive side. Lay it.
Washington Commanders (+9.5) over Miami Dolphins — Widely Available
I can’t believe I’m doing this again with Washington, but here we are. At least the Commanders are at home this week, but this line is just too high. Miami did wreck the Jets last week, but Sam Howell isn’t Tim Boyle. Washington can get in the backdoor if we need it.
TEASER: Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) over San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals — FanDuel
My inkling was to continue to fade Philadelphia. The Eagles have walked through the raindrops this season, including a narrow win last week, and a lot of sharp action has gone against them with projected regression. Then, the line came in with the 49ers favored by 2.5 points on the road in Philadelphia, which isn’t a number that I can justify. I also think moving through two key numbers and nabbing a (very) good Eagles team at 8.5 points is strong process. On the other side of the teaser, sliding the Jaguars to 2.5 at home is appetizing. Jacksonville is pretty good. Cincinnati has Jake Browning on the road and clearly isn’t the same team at this stage. If you removed the Bengals history and evaluated that team with only its available roster, I think the line would be 10.
