Occasionally, there is peril when releasing five NFL selections in the middle of the week. Sometimes, it can be a good thing, especially when picking off quality numbers that won’t stay on the board until Sunday. But sometimes, things happen like what transpired in Week 14. We backed the Seattle Seahawks, grabbing the best number in the market on Thursday in the process, but the widespread assumption (or at least hope) was that Geno Smith would play for Seattle.
Fast-forward to Sunday and the market crashed, taking the Seahawks from +11 to +14 with the news Drew Lock would be in the lineup. Would I have liked the Seahawks at +14 with Drew Lock? Yes. Did I like them at +11? Not really. Alas, the game landed at 12.
Such is life, but it was a disappointing overall week at 2-3, and that resulted turned it from a winner into a loser. We press on to Week 15, with no more byes in the mix and Saturday football beginning in earnest. Let’s take stock of where we are through 70 selections.
- Week 14: 2-3
- 2023 Season: 36-31-3
Come get these winners.
Detroit Lions (-4.5) over Denver Broncos — Widely Available
I only lay more than a field goal with a favorite a few times per year in this space, and this is one of them. The Lions have been very ordinary the last four weeks, and the Broncos have won six of the last seven. That puts this number in range to where it’s enticing, as Detroit is notably better than Denver when peeking under the hood. I don’t trust Detroit’s defense right now, making this a little bit scary, but we’re getting the number and have to take it.
Chicago Bears (+3) over Cleveland Browns — Widely Available
We’re going to keep riding the Bears. It’s been kind to us in recent days, and I don’t think the market has caught up to Chicago’s team quality with Justin Fields and with the way the Bears are playing on defense. Joe Flacco has been competent for the Browns, and I do wish we nabbed the 3.5 earlier in the week, but I still like it at three.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) over Dallas Cowboys — FanDuel
I do understand how weird this line feels. I also know that sharp guys all over the place are on Buffalo, and I’m going to join them. The Bills are better than their record, and the Cowboys aren’t quite the same away from home. Dallas has been utterly dominant in Arlington, but the Cowboys are 3-4 against the spread on the road and, once again, the Bills should throw everything they have into this one.
TEASER: Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) over New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams (-0.5) 0ver Washington Commanders — DraftKings
It’s not a great teaser week, but I do like this one. Kansas City has to go on the road, and I don’t usually love teasing favorites away from home. With that said, I don’t believe in New England’s offense in any way, shape, or form, and I think Kansas City gets right here. The other game is more conventional, as I’m selling on Washington and continuing to buy the Rams as a solid club right now.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over Baltimore Ravens — DraftKings
I still can’t believe Trevor Lawrence played last week, but maybe he’s not human. At any rate, I think getting the extra hook on the Jags at home is quite appetizing. Baltimore is rightly getting a ton of respect by the market, but this is an appetizing spot on Jacksonville in an all-in game at home.
