On occasion, NFL handicapping is a maddening experience. That was the case in Week 14, at least in this space and with one particular decision. Overall, we posted a 2-3 output, which is far from disastrous, but we rolled with the first half under in the Bengals game, only to lose that particular wager with a handful of seconds left in the first half. Predictably, the full game total stayed under with ease and, well, that is the difference between a winning week and a losing week.
Alas, we remain undeterred, and the Week 15 slate has some appetizing spots. Before diving into our five selections, let’s pause and check out the season-long effort.
- Week 14: 2-3
- 2020 Season: 33-35-2
Come get these winners.
Carolina Panthers (+8.5) over Green Bay Packers
The Packers are red-hot, winning three straight and five of six. In contrast, the Panthers have lost seven of eight, and things are seemingly going in the wrong direction. With that said, six of those seven defeats came by one possession, and Teddy Bridgewater is the king of all underdogs. Carolina’s quarterback is 33-13-1 all-time and a blistering 23-6 as an underdog. That isn’t the basis for the pick, but it certainly helps. Give me the Panthers to keep it close.
Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings UNDER 47 points
We always enjoy a good Under bet and, with Akiem Hicks back for the Bears, this feels snug. Minnesota loves to pound the rock with Dalvin Cook and, quite honestly, that usually works. The Bears have had mild success in slowing Cook, though, and Chicago’s offense might also be overvalued right now after facing two putrid defenses in Detroit and Houston. It may not be comfortable the entire way, but this feels like a rock fight. Give me a few points and perhaps a missed field goal (or two) from Dan Bailey.
New England Patriots (+2) over Miami Dolphins
There is a lot happening here. Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks, and the Dolphins are starting one. Miami is running unbelievably hot in turnover luck. New England’s strength offensively is on the ground, while Miami’s defensive strength is against the pass. The Dolphins are also 10-3 against the spread. Did I mention that they are running unbelievably hot and we get to take Bill Belichick against a rookie quarterback?
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) over Baltimore Ravens
Hold your nose. I’m tempted to give out the Jets at +17.5, too. Be thankful we settled here instead.
Arizona Cardinals (-6) over Philadelphia Eagles
If it feels like we’re on the Cardinals every week, it’s because we basically are. Some of that is about Arizona being undervalued (at least at times) but, this week, a lot of it is about Philadelphia. The Eagles aren’t very good and, with all due respect to Jalen Hurts, Philly is getting more respect from last week’s performance than they should. This number should be 7.5 or higher, and with more than half of the tickets on Philadelphia, Arizona is the rare sharp favorite. Lay the number.
