The NFL season started with an entertaining Week 1 slate and, in this space, the action was relatively kind to us. The end result was a 3-2 week, punctuated by a narrow cover by a home underdog on Monday evening, and we’ll take a 60 percent clip anytime.
Still, there is no time to rest, thanks to another jam-packed selection of games to evaluate and handicap in Week 2. Before we get to our five-some of picks to fade the public this week, here is a quick look at our overall progress.
- Week 1: 3-2
- 2020 Season: 3-2
Come get these winners.
Denver Broncos (+7.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
We got to the window (barely!) with the Broncos in Week 1 and we’re going back to that well. Granted, Denver is a little scarier away from home, and the world is on Pittsburgh here after a win in their opener. However, the Steelers aren’t great as a favorite, posting a 14-21-1 mark against the spread in that situation since 2017. Moreover, this is a lot of points for a team in Denver that remains undervalued in my view, and the hook takes it over the top.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Minnesota Vikings
You’re reading that right, folks. We’re giving out a favorite. It’s rare in this space to see the minus sign next to a number, but this is a perfect storm. Indianapolis looked awful in losing to Jacksonville in Week 1 (and giving us a win in the process), but the Colts are, at least in my view, still a good football team. From there, more than 75 (!) percent of the tickets are on the Vikings, with the public remembering just how bad Indy looked and banking on a bounce-back from the Vikings after they lost to the Packers last week. It’s a “fade the public” favorite, and we like those.
Miami Dolphins (+6) over Buffalo Bills
We’re back to the basics with a home underdog that absolutely no one wants to bet. Buffalo didn’t impress me, even while covering in Week 1, and now they’re laying six in a division game. Yes, the Bills are better than the Dolphins, but I’m willing to buy low on Miami in this spot. For good measure, the universe is on Buffalo to the tune of more than 80 percent of the action, and this is where we shine.
Philadelphia Eagles (PK) over Los Angeles Rams
You might be able to get a point or so with the Eagles, but we’ll give out the consensus line. This is a classic overreaction spot for the public, with the Eagles losing in ugly fashion in Week 1 and the Rams knocking off the Cowboys in a standalone window. As such, this line is a few points off and, for me, the Eagles would be a play all the way up to -2.5 or -3. Do what you will.
Las Vegas Raiders (+6) over New Orleans Saints
We had success with a home underdog on Monday evening and it’s happening again here, albeit in different circumstances. The Raiders did get a win in their opener, but it wasn’t a dominant performance, while the Saints cruised over the Bucs in a standalone spot. New Orleans is arguably the best team in the NFC at full strength and, well, it isn’t fun to bet against them. Still, the Raiders are feisty and, more importantly, the Saints are operating without Michael Thomas in this spot. It’s not sexy, but everybody’s on the Saints, so you know where we’ll be at the end of the week.
