Hello again, fight friends! We’ve come to the final predictions of the year, which is a momentous occasion! UFC Fight Night 58 will be taking place tomorrow in Brazil, starting at 7:00 PM ET on Fight Pass. Time to jump into the picks!
Important Standings of Note:
Jessica: 288-171-3 (62%)
Burnsy: 278-180-4 (60%)
Vince: 145-87-1 (62%)
Danny: 161-77-1 (67%)
Spilled: 76-56-2 (57%)
Sydnie: 16-12 (57%)
Chris: 25-9 (74%)
NY Ric: 36-26-1 (57%)
Ghost: 6-7 (46%)
Seth: 14-9 (61%)
Biss: 13-8-1 (59%)
Middleweight – Vitor “Lex Luthor” Miranda vs Rodney “Jake” Collier
Jessica: Did Rodney think to himself “Oh man, I can’t go by Rodney, that means wiener!”, because how else do you get the nickname of JAKE? Whatever, I’ll take Jake to KO the bald man in the first round because there’s nothing I love more than a raucous Brazilian crowd getting silenced early.
Burnsy: While I’d prefer that Miranda’s nickname be Carmen and he’s the first fighter to come to the octagon with a fruit hat, I’ll take Lex Luthor.
Biss: The prelim fights have been quite enjoyable lately even on a small I-phone screen Vitor with the Kryptonite… Victor Miranda.
Seth: YARRRR, in Nautical slang this contest is known as “a rebound fight for Vitor Miranda.”
Welterweight – Marcio “Lyoto” Alexandre vs Tim “Dirty Bird” Means
Jessica: Dude, Marcio, you can’t take a dude’s first name as your nickname, especially WHEN Y’ALL ON THE SAME DANG FIGHT CARD! That ain’t a good look, and that’s enough to give the edge to Natrone Means. Tim is gonna get a second round TKO.
Burnsy: Lyoto is the hometown fighter coming off a loss in his UFC debut. That’s almost always good for a win.
Biss: The Dirty Bird is a horrible nick name… almost as bad as Cuddle Bear. Lyoto is kinda a creepy nickname given this event… deep fight analysis here… Marcio Alexandre.
Seth: My first upset of the night, right here. Okay, so it’s probably not too outrageous to say that Tim Means is the superior fighter. But Brazilians fighting on the undercards of Brazilian UFC events tend to be victorious, and I’m not about to wager against a gritty sumbitch like Means.
Bantamweight – Leandro “Brodinho” Issa vs Yuta “Ulka” Sasaki
Jessica: Normally on a grapple-fight like this, I’d be predicting a Sh*tty, Tepid Kickboxing match, but I think Sasaki’s wrestle skills will be good enough to get the fight to the ground and get a third round submission.
Burnsy: Sasaki had that great submission win in his UFC debut back in August that was one of the lone highlights to what I recall was a really lousy event. I’ll take him to win again.
Biss: Issa is going to sleep… RNC all day… counting sheep… hitting the hay… zonking out… need I go on… Ulka Sasaki.
Seth: *Flips coin* It landed on heads, so I still don’t care about this fight at all whatsoever. I will say that Yuta Sasaki actually has a Wikipedia page, so let’s just pretend that I have a better reason for picking him than that.
Featherweight – Darren “The Damage” Elkins vs Hacran “Barnabe” Dias
Jessica: Has there ever been a person in the history of combat sports that looks more surprised that he’s supposed to be fighting another human being than Darren Elkins? I mean, he’s obviously going to Midwesternly wrestle Dias into a paste and take a decision, but his UFC picture has such a “Huh, what? I GOTTA FIGHT A DUDE?” expression.
Burnsy: This match seems like a real stinker on paper, so I’m going to presume that by losing his last two, Dias has backed himself into a pink slip fight, and I think he saves his ass in front of the home crowd. Also, I just love saying Hacran, even if I have no idea how it’s pronounced.
Biss: Dias is the favorite but Elkins is 13 in the mystical UFC power rankings… 13 is an unlucky number… Hacran Dias.
Seth: Darren Elkins walks out of this contest as the second foreigner to beat up a Brazilian, and I refuse to be told otherwise.
Featherweight – Tom “Stoneface” Niinimaki vs Renato “Moicano” Carneiro
Jessica: Niinimaki’s a good grappler, but c’mon, Renato is a 27-time world BJJ champion! Wait, that’s not Renato Laranja finally making his UFC debut? DANGIT! Whatever, I’ll still take this Henatch to submit Tom in the second.
Burnsy: This is interesting fightmaking. Tom has lost his last two by submission and Carneiro’s best wins in Jungle Fight came by submission. Tom’s lost two in a row and he’s going to lose his third to possibly get his bags a-packin’.
Biss: Niinimaki comes in off of back-to-back losses witch tells me maybe he is fighting out of his league, Moicano is loaded up on Subs and Decisions… I think New Blood rules here… Billy Kidman, I mean… Renato Moicano.
Seth: If Tom Niinimäki isn’t specifically being brought in to get submitted by Renato Carneiro, then I… well, probably won’t do anything too outrageous, but I’d definitely be surprised.
Light Heavyweight – Marcos “Pezao” Rogerio de Lima vs Igor “The Duke” Pokrajac
Jessica: Both these dudes should slang n bang, which everyone loves. Things haven’t been going well for MMA royalty recently, so I’ll say this Bigfoot wins by second round KO.
Burnsy: Pezao introduced himself to the UFC back in May with a first round KO. The Duke is 0-3-1 in his last four fights. It’s an up-and-comer vs. a guy who looks like a nameless grunt in a Statham movie. I’m not trying to celebrate unemployment here, but this is another pink slipper and I think Pezao sends Igor home.
Biss: Igor Pokrajac has had a hell of a time as of late, “Pezao” is young in the UFC but if he can not pass this test that time might not be long… Marcos Rogerio de Lima.
Seth: I’m not sold on either of these guys, quite frankly. I’ll give Pezão an ever so slight advantage due to the fact that this fight is taking place in Brazil. And I’ll likely take a bathroom break during the fight itself.
Middleweight – Daniel Sarafian vs Antonio “Junior Alpha” Dos Santos
Jessica: Sarafian is on a skid and AJADS is such a clusterf*ck that I’ve got to pick him. Alphabet Soup wins by third round TKO.
Burnsy: Sarafian has shown one minor glimpse of hope in his first four fights, and in the other three he has looked lost and raw as hell. I’m picking too many newcomers, so I’ll take him to get it together here.
Biss: Sarafian sports one hell of a tribal sleeve, he has also dropped 3 of his last 4 and has a TKOKO (Punches) in his near future… Antonio dos Santos.
Seth: So Daniel Sarafian is fighting Some Guy. Take a wild guess as to who I think will win this one.
Welterweight – Erick “Indio” Silva vs Mike “Biggie” Rhodes
Jessica: Rhodes is a decent kickboxer that will look decent, but he’s not good enough to legitimately challenge Silva on the feet. Erick will land some big shots, kick Mike down and jump on him for a first round submission.
Rini: Also on the “getting back on track” tip is Erick Silva. The man has never won or lost two fights in a row in the UFC. So, coming off a spectacular loss to Matt Brown it only stands to reason that he’ll put on a show against Mike Rhodes. Coming off of losses (or DQ losses), Silva has consistently finished his next opponent. This says something both about the man himself and the way the UFC chooses to book him. He’s consistently exciting, winning FOTN in two of his last three losses, and two SOTN and one POTN in his last three wins. But there is something about the man that says he will never wear gold. Whether it’s poor fight IQ, or a hex that induces losses where they should never occur (the Prater DQ, the Stun Gun KO in a fight he was winning, the Brown comeback) I think Erick Silva will be a champion in the next life, but not this one.
Silva by stoppage.
Burnsy: Mike Rhodes is young, so he might not be worried about losing his first two UFC fights, even if they were both really unimpressive UDs. Since losing at UFC 142, Silva is a win one/lose one guy, with his last fight being a TKO loss to Matt Brown. I want Rhodes to win, so I am going to reluctantly take him. I will probably regret it.
Biss: Erick Silva is going to have to get out of the first round and find a way to get the advantage on the ground… I think he will… Erick Silva.
Seth: There’s two obvious predictions to be made here. Number one is that Erick Silva scores a stoppage victory. Number two is that the MMA Twitterverse will go from talking about what a bust Erick Silva turned out to be before this fight to raving about how Silva is “FINALLY LIVING UP TO HIS POTENTIAL!!!!!” after he knocks out Opponent. The MMA Twitterverse cracks me the hell up.
Lightweight – Elias “Xuxu” Silverio vs Rashid “Goratz” Magomedov
Jessica: Death to Xuxu! DAGESTANI KNUCKLE GAME CARTEL, ALL DAY, EVERYDAY. Magomedov takes a decision victory and continues to have the best one-tweet account in the history of twitter (Shut up, I know that’s not the MMA version of Rashid Magomedov’s Twitter account)
Burnsy: Magomedov is a badass on the rise, and I simply cannot pick against him.
Biss: I think this next fight will be a lot of fun, Russia vs Brazil… I’d watch a whole TUF of Russia vs Brazil… I flipped a coin… Russia… Rashid Magomedov.
Seth: Sorry, Silverio, but predicting that a dead-eyed Russian nicknamed “Highlander” will lose a fight to a tropical vegetable goes against everything that I know about combat sports.
Light Heavyweight – Patrick “Durkin” Cummins vs Antonio “Cara de Sapato” Carlos Junior
Jessica: MOTHERF*CKING FACE GODDAN SHOE IS BACK, YOU GUYS! It’s time for the barista to clock out early since FACE SHOE is going to tap Cummins in the second.
Burnsy: I have a ton of respect for Cummins ever since he volunteered to let Daniel Cormier whoop his ass in the first round of their short-notice fight. Since then, he’s won two fights and I’d like to see him take the W here.
Biss: Patrick Cummins has to be the odds on favorite here right? New (young) Blood strikes again… Mike Sanders… on a serious note, I think this goes to the mat and we see another great chance for a tap out… Antonio Carlos Junior.
Seth: I’m honestly trying to care about this card, but Antônio Carlos Júnior vs. Patrick Cummins, UFC? Yeah, that’s a takeout BBQ break. Cummins scores the upset while I’m eating brisket.
Bantamweight – Renan Barao vs Mitch “The Machine” Gagnon
Jessica: I’m not going to call him “The Baron” since Barao means Baron and his real last name is Pegado, but seriously, Barao is going to obliterate poor little Mitch. I’m seeing this going down like the Erick Silva fight, where Renan hurts Mitch on the feet and then pounces onto a submission in the first.
Rini: Next up, Renan “Nosferatu” Barao, once the Baron of Bantamweights, takes on unranked Mitch Gagnon. After all the bad feelings following the weight cutting, head bumping and event missing mishaps, this is where we’ve landed. Given how masterful Barao has looked against Urijah Faber, Michael McDonald, and Eddie Wineland, and how good it would be to book him against the winner of Dillashaw vs Cruz, I can’t see this as anything other than a tune up fight.
Renan do Nascimento Mota Pegado by stoppage.
Burnsy: Great fight potential here, with Gagnon on a hot streak and Barao probably wanting to break all of the bones in his path for revenge. I’m hoping for a full fight with lots of action, but I think Barao gets it done early.
Biss: Lot of Brazil action on this card, would not be shocked at all by a clean sweep, Wrestling caused him some trouble I’m excited to see his improvements but The Baron is on the road to redemption with the Dillashaw in his sites… Renan Barao.
Seth: Honestly, Renan Barao is the greatest pound-for-pound fighter on the planet (except for Anthny Pettis, Connor McGregor, Ronda Rousey, and everyone else Dana White has pegged as the p4p greatest fighter alive, but you get the idea…).
Middleweight – Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida vs C.B. “The Doberman” Dolloway
Jessica: HI, I’M CLARENCE BYRON DOLLOWAY AND I GOTS A FART FACE, HURF DURF. Go get wrecked, ya dingus. Handsome Man Lyoto is going to karate Dolloway’s stupid head off with a second round knockout.
Rini: This is a great fight in my opinion. Machida’s title fight loss against Chris Weidman was one of the best of 2014, as was his technical firefight with Moussasi and he should remain a force in the middleweight division. With that said, the division itself is packed with contenders and as the anticipated title runs of Luke Rockhold, Jacare Souza and darkhorse Yoel Romero play out, The Dragon should stay busy, accumulate wins and quietly build his case for a rematch.
Dollaway has finally reached a level he’d been anticipating since his time on TUF. I always liked his attitude, athleticism, and the fact that he looks like one of the wooden soldiers from Bill Willingham’s comic ‘Fables’
This is easily the most important fight of Dollaway’s career in terms of exposure and its implications. Combine that with his age (31) and it’ll be interesting to see what type of fighter steps into the Octagon Saturday. His good friend Ryan Bader was put to sleep by Machida in highlight fashion, but Phil Davis, another wrestler with far less striking acumen was able to eke out a decision victory by remaining patient and sticking to a gameplan that relied much more on takedowns than engaging on the feet.
While this is hardly a prediction, I can see one potential outcome: Machida’s footwork frustrates Dolloway much as it did Bader. Whereas Bader has displayed his KO power on numerous occasions, Dollaway will be goaded into shooting for a desperate takedown and Machida will utilize one of his patented moves. Raising his arms up into the “Bear Pose” he’ll meet the shooting Dollaway with an upraised knee and play sweet chin music.
Burnsy: Machida and Steven Seagal win.
Biss: Sit back and grab a glass of your favorite beverage, this should cap of a very Green and Yellow type night… I’m sure CB will hold up his end of the bargain… but Lyoto Machida.
Seth: To be clear, I think that Dollaway is an underrated middleweight, and is a much more difficult fight for Machida than most fans are assuming he is. That’s basically my way of saying that Machida will deserve more credit for beating Dollaway than most fans will be willing to give him.
Fight of the Night
Jessica: Elkins vs Dias
Burnsy: Barao vs Gagnon
Biss: Barao vs Gagnon
Performance of the Night
Jessica: Silva, Machida
Burnsy: Barao, Magomedov
Biss: Sasaki , Silva