Remember when Nerlens Noel was a thing?
The 23-year-old center was a hot topic in the offseason as a restricted free agent and his saga lasted for weeks. In short, there were reports that Noel turned down a $70 million contract to stay in Dallas and, at the end of the day, the former Sixers big man elected to take the (relatively) piddling qualifying offer in hopes of future flexibility. Since that time, Noel has languished in relative obscurity but, this week, Mavs coach Rick Carlisle gave him a highly publicized DNP-CD while telling ESPN directly that “minutes have to be earned” for the youngster.
Noel is not some sort of dominant force that was expected to carry Dallas to wins this season, but the weirdness of that entire situation happens to speak to the mess that the Mavs are at the moment. The team sits in the Western Conference basement at 2-12 on the season and, in retrospect, the season-opening loss (at home) to the lowly Hawks feels like a microcosm of things to come.
Harrison Barnes (19.0 points, 7.1 rebounds per game) has been solid and rookie Dennis Smith Jr. has provided glimpses of optimism but, on the whole, there isn’t much going right for Mark Cuban’s team. Wesley Matthews continues to struggle, Noel can’t get on the floor and, most unfortunately, Dirk Nowitzki now looks like a 39-year-old basketball player is supposed to look. Are the Mavs this bad? Probably not, simply because they have the talent of a 35-win team rather than the 15-win team they currently resemble. Still, it hasn’t been a product of bad luck that Dallas has scuffled to this degree. They are flatly playing as poorly as the numbers indicate.
How far can the Mavs actually drop in our NBA power rankings? Let’s take stock.
1. Golden State Warriors (11-3, Last week — 1st)
Stephen Curry missed Monday’s game with a thigh contusion but that didn’t slow the Warriors enough to actually lose a basketball game. Golden State’s seven-game winning streak is active and, in the interest of time, let’s just all agree they should be No. 1 despite not technically having the league’s best record.
2. Houston Rockets (11-3, Last week — 2nd)
The Rockets have now won six in a row and, by the way, Chris Paul still exists. James Harden has been outrageously good (30.2 points, 10.2 assists, 29.8 PER) thus far and, even if/when there is a transition period when Paul returns, there is no reason to think Houston is preparing for a slide.
3. Boston Celtics (12-2, Last week — 3rd)
Boston owns the best record in the league and that is what happens when a team wins 12 straight games in October and November. Honestly, I still don’t believe this is a top-three (or even top-five) team this season, mostly because the defensive performance jumps out as unsustainable. In the same breath, Kyrie Irving and Al Horford have been out of this world through 14 games and the Celtics are a ton of fun right now.
4. Detroit Pistons (10-3, Last week — 7th)
It wouldn’t surprise anyone if this ranking represented the high point for the Pistons this season, but there is no shame in that. Detroit has compiled five straight wins and the team’s net rating speaks to the fact that it isn’t a complete fluke. If this happened early in the 2016-2017 season, no one would have been stunned but, this year, it is both surprising and very encouraging for Stan Van Gundy and company.
5. San Antonio Spurs (8-5, Last week — 8th)
The Spurs are fine again. Four wins in five games will do that and we all know what happens when Kawhi Leonard returns. Pop’s charge was likely to simply stay afloat in the absence of a top-five player on the planet and San Antonio has been up to the task.
6. Washington Wizards (8-5, Last week — 12th)
Washington fell out of the top ten with a weird hiccup a week ago but panic was alleviated with three straight home wins. Granted, those wins came against the Lakers, Hawks and Kings but they all count just the same.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5, Last week — 4th)
The Wolves have still been outscored for the season despite an 8-5 record and a bottom-five defense is the culprit for that. At some point, that is just what Minnesota is, but we haven’t necessarily reached that point yet and there is, quite obviously, a ton of talent.
8. Toronto Raptors (7-5, Last week — 5th)
This is a sinfully boring basketball team but there is nothing wrong with that given the results. Toronto doesn’t have a bad loss all season and they are doing this without Kyle Lowry performing at a top-end level. Everything is fine north of the border.
9. Oklahoma City Thunder (6-7, Last week — 9th)
Remember how the Wolves have been outscored with a solidly winning record? The Thunder are fourth in the NBA in net rating (+5.6 per 100 possessions) while falling below the .500 mark. OKC’s clutch struggles are well documented and it’s clear their new Big 3 is still trying to figure out how to handle things down the stretch, but let’s just say I’m not worried.
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (7-7, Last week — 14th)
LeBron did a thing on Monday in New York and the Cavs are back to .500. You’re crazy if you aren’t worried about Cleveland’s defense, even at this early stage, but their upside is kind of undeniable when you watch the switch flip to the “on” position.
11. Portland Trail Blazers (7-6, Last week — 6th)
A home loss to the Nets is the biggest reason for this five-spot dip but Portland did right the ship with a win over Denver in its last outing. The Blazers’ numbers are still buoyed by a comical early-season win over Phoenix but this still looks like a playoff team.
12. Philadelphia 76ers (7-6, Last week — 11th)
Philly felt the brunt of the Warriors this week and that should bring expectations back into reality. This remains a very fun team, though, and Joel Embiid staying on the floor unlocks quite a few things.
13. Denver Nuggets (8-6, Last week — 16th)
Monday’s 17-point loss to the Blazers didn’t inspire much in the way of confidence but, before that, Denver had it going a bit. Nikola Jokic has predictably exploded and Paul Millsap is getting past his early-season issues with fit and integration. In short, the Nuggets are very dangerous.
14. Memphis Grizzlies (7-6, Last week — 10th)
The Grizzlies are doing the thing where they play tight games almost on a nightly basis and that brings variance into play. As a result, it is tough to gauge just how good they are, even with 13 games to evaluate.
15. Milwaukee Bucks (7-6, Last week — 19th)
Given what we’ve seen from Milwaukee in the Eric Bledsoe era, this ranking is probably too low. The Bucks are now above .500 after three straight wins and, with Bledsoe on board at the expense of only Greg Monroe (at least for this season), this is certainly a top-five roster in the East.
16. New Orleans Pelicans (8-6, Last week — 15th)
New Orleans needed all 48 minutes to dispatch of the short-handed Hawks on Monday and that probably isn’t the best sign. What is positive, though, is that the Pelicans have won five of six overall and Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins still look great together.
17. Orlando Magic (8-6, Last week — 17th)
The Magic still sit in the top half of the standings but things are (finally) slowing down a bit. Regression was always coming with the way Orlando was shooting to open the season but the big question now is whether what remains is actually playoff-quality in the suddenly interesting East.
18. New York Knicks (7-6, Last week — 23rd)
The fans in New York were reminded of LeBron James’ brilliance on Monday evening but the Knicks showed quite a bit of fight in the process. While that was a loss on the ledger, the Knicks are exceeding any rational expectation and, thanks to the play of Kristaps Porzingis and others, things are going pretty well in the early going in Manhattan.
19. Charlotte Hornets (5-7, Last week — 20th)
The Hornets fall only one spot despite four straight losses and that might seem odd… until you look at the schedule. Dropping games to the Spurs, Wolves, Knicks and Celtics isn’t exactly criminal and the impending return of Nic Batum should provide a nice infusion offensively.
20. Utah Jazz (6-8, Last week — 18th)
The loss of Rudy Gobert for a while is going to sting in a big way. Beyond his individual brilliance, the Jazz are a bottom-five offensive team even with Gobert available and the margin for error is so small that even a slight step back defensively is going to be problematic. Can they hold water until the team’s centerpiece returns? We’ll see.
21. Miami Heat (6-7, Last week — 21st)
Navigating a six-game road trip with a 3-3 record doesn’t move the needle but it is actually quite important. That is especially true when the losses come to the Warriors, Nuggets and Pistons, leaving the Heat with plenty of room to grow after the avoidance of the potential crater.
22. Los Angeles Clippers (5-8, Last week — 13th)
When the Clippers started 4-0, the whispers began about the ability to withstand the loss of Chris Paul without a hiccup. Since then, Los Angeles is 1-8 and, well, it is clear they miss one of the best point guards of all-time. That isn’t the only problem and the Clippers still have a positive net rating but this is a middling group at the moment.
23. Indiana Pacers (6-8, Last week — 21st)
It was fun while it lasted. The Pacers have turned into a pumpkin with five losses in six games and, even if the surprise level is low, it is unfortunate. Indiana isn’t terrible and that is nice but the playoff buzz is gone until further notice.
24. Los Angeles Lakers (6-8, Last week — 24th)
Luke Walton’s squad is just 1-3 in the recent past but all three losses came on the road to playoff-bound opponents. It would be nice if the Lakers won a few of those but they did bounce back with a win over the Suns and those are games Los Angeles absolutely has to have.
25. Brooklyn Nets (5-8, Last week — 25th)
The pending absence of D’Angelo Russell is going to hurt Brooklyn, especially in a post-Jeremy Lin world. Still, there have been some positive signs, including two road wins in the past four games. There just isn’t enough to depth to withstand Russell’s absence (even with his unsightly individual net rating) when it comes to offensive creation and Kenny Atkinson will have to get creative.
26. Phoenix Suns (5-10, Last week — 26th)
The Suns are in the midst of a (very) lengthy homestand but the results haven’t been ideal. Phoenix did pick up a surprising win over Minnesota but, aside from that, it has been more of what you’d expect from this group. The Earl Watson days still negatively affect the peripheral stats and they aren’t that bad but the Suns have a long way to go.
27. Atlanta Hawks (2-12, Last week — 27th)
Atlanta has very little top-end talent but this is a team that isn’t as bad as its record would indicate. In recent days, the Hawks dropped heart-breakers to the Celtics and Pelicans. If you like net rating as an indicator, let’s just say that Mike Budenholzer’s squad isn’t close to the worst team in the league despite its record.
28. Sacramento Kings (3-10, Last week — 30th)
The Kings have won two of their past four basketball games! Of course, they were run out of the building in the other two but, hey, two wins!
29. Dallas Mavericks (2-12, Last week — 28th)
At some point, the Mavs are going to wake up… but it’s already too late.
30. Chicago Bulls (2-9, Last week — 29th)
One of Chicago’s wins came against a Hawks team without its best player and the Bulls have been outscored by 12.4 points per 100 possessions on the season. For good measure, there is ongoing weirdness with Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic to go along with an enormous talent gap between Chicago’s roster and that of its opponent on a nightly basis. Other than that, everything is fine.
