Golden Globes Analysis: ‘It’s Complicated’ and ‘Basterds’ shine, ‘Invictus’ and ‘Bones’ snubbed

12.15.09 8 years ago 4 Comments

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association giveth and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association taketh away. The results of this morning’s Golden Globe announcements — which this prognosticator took in person for some ridiculous reason if not to Tweet — were full of expected results, and some major surprises.

Many of the trends were called early: Sandra Bullock, Matt Damon and Meryl Streep getting double nods for respective films. The dominance of “Avatar” (cough, predicted first here), the love for Emily Blunt, “500 Days of Summer,” “Up in the Air,” “The Hangover” and “Inglourious Basterds”; and , as always, the love for the big stars to show up at the Globes party on both sides of the movie and TV aisle. 

We’ll let HitFix’s Daniel Fienberg comment on some of the more intriguing TV choices, but let’s do a quick rundown of the winners and losers this morning.


“It’s Complicated”
– Streep? Not surprising. Picture? Even that’s not surprising.  Best screenplay?  (Jaw to the floor).  Universal has something to campaign now for Oscar. Maybe…

“Inglourious Basterds”
– Attention Weinstein Company: This is the horse you need to get on, not “Nine.”  Four nods and only one in the acting branch?

Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
– Ladies and gentlemen we have a serious candidate for Best Actress now.  If she can land a SAG on Thursday, she becomes the surprise player in the race.

“500 Days of Summer”
– The comeback kid. Screenplay would have been nice, but the Sundance favorite has the best chance of upsetting “Nine” for Best Comedy or Musical.


“A Serious Man”
– No picture, no screenplay, no director. Surprise though, Michael Stuhlbarg gets in the Best Actor – Comedy or Musical race. 

“Bright Star”
– Nada. Zilch. Zero. Perhaps too early a release date?

“An Education”
– Really strong and classy movie couldn’t get more than the deserved Carey Mulligan for Best Actress – Drama. 

– Normally, a Best Director, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor set of nominations would be enough to make anyone happy, but no Best Picture – Drama nod? Disappointing to say the least.

“The Lovely Bones”
– Deserved love for Tucci, but nothing for Ronan? D.O.A. ‘Nuff said.

Here’s some further thoughts on each category and some early thoughts on the major contenders.

Best Picture – Drama
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Up in the Air”
“The Hurt Locker”

Lowdown: “Invictus,” “An Education” and “A Serious Man” lost out here. “Avatar” and “Up in the Air” will battle this one out for the win, but “Basterds” could surprise.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“The Hangover”
“500 Days of Summer”
“It’s Complicated”
“Julie and Julia”

Lowdown: Many would assume as the only musical “Nine” is a lock here, but that’s not the case this year.  Many in the HFPA are not fans of Rob Marshall’s latest – five nods aside – and “(500) Days” could pull what wouldn’t really be an upset.  However, considering how weak this category is, it’s amazing “A Serious Man” didn’t make the cut.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Tobey Maguire, “Brothers”

Lowdown: Maguire for “Brothers”? Really? If the HFPA could do this again they might go for “Hurt Locker’s” Jeremy Renner after the love he’s gotten from critic’s groups this week. Even Sharito Copley of “District 9” or Michael Sheen for “The Damn United” would have made more sense. Guess they couldn’t have a show without Spider-Man showing up.  This will be a battle between Bridges and Clooney with the latter having the upper hand with the HFPA… at the moment.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Emily Blunt, “The Young Victoria”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”

Lowdown: Judging by Saoirse Ronan’s exclusion, the HFPA really didn’t like “The Lovely Bones.” At this point, Mulligan may not even be in the race. It could be between Bullock and Mirren.  Who knew?
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Matt Damon, “The Informant”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Nine”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “A Serious Man”
Robert Downey Jr., “Sherlock Holmes”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “500 Days of Summer”

Most open race in all the movie categories.  Anyone but Day-Lewis could win (really).  Don’t be surprised if Downey, Jr. comes out of nowhere to pull this out.  Especially if “Holmes” is the monster hit everyone expects.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Marion Cotillard, “Nine”
Sandra Bullock, “The Proposal”
Meryl Streep, “Julie and Julia”
Julia Roberts, “Duplicity”
Meryl Streep, “It’s Complicated”

Lowdown: Julia Roberts in “Duplicity”? Well, when Streep gets two nods in the same category you know it’s weak.  She’ll still win for “Julie and Julia” though. 
Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Matt Damon, “Invictus”

Lowdown: Nice recognition for Harrelson in “The Messenger.” This will really help his Oscar chances. Stunner? No Alfred Molina for “An Education” which was deserved and expected.  Doesn’t really matter though as this is Waltz’s all the way.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Vera Farminga, “Up in the Air”
Julianne Moore, “A Single Man”

Lowdown: Don’t be surprised if the HFPA skip over Mo’Nique — who is dominating the critic’s award groups — and go with Kendrick or Farminga.  Only surprises here? Only one “Nine” lady got in.  Nice self control HFPA.
Best Director

Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”
Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Clint Eastwood, “Invictus”

Lowdown: They didn’t want to totally diss Eastwood that’s for sure. Sad that Lee Daniels didn’t get in for “Precious” in his place though (that’s the concern about Mo’Nique Lionsgate…). This one will be interesting though. Every nominee but Eastwood could theoretically win.
Best Screenplay
“District 9”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“It’s Complicated”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Up in the Air”

Lowdown: Nice to see “District 9” recognized, but “It’s Complicated” over “(500) Days of Summer,” “Precious,” “In the Loop,” “An Education” or “A Serious Man”?  A tad disapointing.
Best Animated Feature
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs”
“The Princess and the Frog”

“Up” should win, but the diss to “Ponyo” raises eyebrows. Bad call HFPA.
Best Foreign Language Film
“Broken Embraces,” Spain
“Baaria,” Italy
“The Maid,” Chili
“Un Prophet,” France
“The White Ribbon, ” Germany

Lowdown: Considering the buzz that they membership really didn’t like “Embraces” the fact it got in over critic’s favorite “Summer Hours” shows that this group of international journos probably didn’t catch as many by their countrymen as they should have.  The overrated “Ribbon” has the best shot to win here, but we’re rooting for “Un Prophet.”
Best Original Song
“Cinema Italiano,” preformed by Kate Hudson, “Nine”
“Winter,” performed by U2, “Brothers”
“The Weary Kind,” performed by Ryan Bingham, “Crazy Heart”
“I Want to Come Home,” performed by Paul McCarney, “Everybody’s Fine”
“I Will See You,” performed by Leona Lewis, “Avatar”

Lowdown: No song from “Princess and the Frog”? Ouch. Won’t hurt for Oscar though.  “Italiano,” “Weary Kind” and “See You” are the main contenders here. If “See You” wins early in the show, expect “Avatar” to win Best Picture – Drama.
Best Original Score
Michael Giacchino, “Up’
Marvin Hamlisch, “The Informant!”
Karen O, Carter Burwell, “Where The Wild Things Are”
Abel Korzeniowski, “A Single Man”
James Horner, “Avatar”

Lowdown: It’s a great year for film scores overall and you really can’t argue with any of these nominees (although “Fantastic Mr. Fox” is pretty great too). And more fun for those playing at home, pretty much all of them have a legit shot to win.

As the season heats up, look for breaking awards season news and commentary daily on Awards Campaign.  For the latest, follow @HitFixGregory on Twitter.

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