Earlier today, Alan Sepinwall and Brian Grubb offered their best predictions of who the Hollywood Foreign Press Association would honor in the television categories at the Golden Globes on Sunday. Now it’s time to try the same with the movie categories. The Globes are, well, weird. Everyone’s drunk. The HFPA is a mysterious organization with often curious standards. It’s a predictor of who will win at the Oscars, but hardly the best predictor. That’s in part because the Globes divides its awards into “Drama” and “Comedy or Musical” categories, sometimes bizarrely. (Remember that hilarious comedy, The Martian.) And part because it’s often just… off. Look no further than last year for evidence. Leonardo DiCaptiro and Brie Larson won in the dramatic acting categories and Alejandro González Iñárritu won the Best Director prize. But otherwise, the top categories didn’t line up with the Oscars. The Globes also have a tendency to award, or at least nominate, familiar faces. Last year, Stallone was a lock for Best Supporting Actor for Creed at the Globes while the Oscar eluded him. That said, there’s always at least one or two “Huh?” moments each year. It’s predictably unpredictable. So, given that, here are some stabs at predictions anyway.
Best Picture, Drama
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
Keith: I think Moonlight has this one. It’s an undeniably great movie — this year’s One Movie Everyone Can Agree On — and it’s been picking up momentum throughout awards season. Any other winner would be a surprise. (So it’ll probably actually go to Hacksaw Ridge.)
Mike: I can’t argue with this, even for the sake of compelling commentary. Okay, I’ll try. Manchester by the Sea has a lot of momentum right now. But so does Moonlight. And it’s weird: Manchester, Moonlight and La La Land seem to be The Big Three and just keep winning everything. But, yes, I think this goes to Moonlight, too.
Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
20th Century Women
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Keith: Again, it feels like there’s an obvious winner here in La La Land. Everyone else should get a “thanks for trying” trophy. That said, how do you feel about the Deadpool nomination? I like that movie. I don’t love that movie. But I’m kind of glad to see it here anyway.
Mike: I did not like Deadpool. It also got a WGA nomination. All of this astonishes me. Anyway, congratulations to La La Land on its Golden Globe victory.
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Keith: This is tougher to call. I think the easiest choice here is La La Land. Twitter backlash aside, everyone loves it. And it’s probably the most directed movie among the nominations.
Mike: Eh, the “Twitter backlash” means nothing. It literally happen every year to the front runner and never, ever matters. If it mattered, Birdman would certainly not be a Best Picture winner. I think there’s a possibility Barry Jenkins could win this, but I agree — again! — that Chazelle will win. (So far this has been a very boring debate.)