As the calendar turns to 2024 we find ourselves just six weeks away from the All-Star Game in Indianapolis, and there is a crowded race for the East and West squads this year, meaning we are likely going to see plenty of fan bases upset by snubs.
With just 24 total roster spots (plus possible injury replacements) and a set number of spots for guards (4) and frontcourt players (6) plus a pair of wild card spots, there figure to be a lot of players that have legitimate All-Star arguments that get squeezed in each conference — this is where I once again beg the league to expand All-Star rosters to 15, putting them in line with the actual rosters NBA teams have. With a month left for players to make their All-Star case to fans, players, media, and coaches, I figured it was a good time to take a look at the players battling for All-Star roster spots and where the likely “snubs” will come from.
With the way the starter vote works (with 50 percent coming from fans, 25 percent from players, and 25 percent from media), there are rarely any major surprises with the 10 starting spots — that’s not to say there’s never controversy, but they’re almost always deserving of an All-Star nod. It’s the coach votes for the reserves that are always the most fascinating to me, as they tend to place a high value on playing for a winning team (especially when picking between players with similar profiles), which we can use to try to predict who will and won’t make it onto the roster this year. With the talent level of the league as high as it’s ever been, there are going to be some really tough calls for the coaches that will leave some deserving players out of the festivities in Indy.
EAST GUARDS
In: Tyrese Maxey*, Damian Lillard*, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young
I think this is the toughest group to figure out who will be the two starters. If I were to guess, Maxey and Lillard will get the nod given their profile and the success of their two teams. Brunson will certainly have a shot at starting if Knicks fans vote in droves, but he’ll likely need to out-point Lillard in media/player voting to have a shot. Haliburton feels like a lock for a reserve spot given he’s the Pacers only real candidate for a hometown All-Star, is leading the NBA in assists, and is scoring at a crazy efficient rate. Young will have to be a coaches Wild Card pick because he has historically done poorly in the starters voting (especially with his fellow players), but his stats (28.3 points and 11.3 assists per game) are so gaudy I think he’ll get the nod this year even with Atlanta’s struggles — and if he doesn’t, you can guarantee some chatter this summer about him wanting to be in a bigger market.
Snubs: Donovan Mitchell, Derrick White
Mitchell would need both Wild Card spots to go to guards to get in, and I don’t think that happens. I think Cleveland underwhelming this year to expectations will hurt him, and it likely comes down to him vs. Young for the last guard spot and even with Atlanta being pretty bad this year, Young’s stats are just absurd. Barring a big January for the Cavs that sees them climb the standings, they might go All-Starless this year and that will likely only accelerate the rumblings around Mitchell’s future there if he misses out on an All-Star pick.
There’s a vocal movement for Derrick White to be an All-Star, but it’s going to be really hard for him to make it given the performance of the players listed above and I don’t even think we get six guards on the roster. Beyond that, the Celtics are going to have at least two All-Stars with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and the strongest case for a third probably belongs to Kristaps Porzingis. We haven’t seen a team get four All-Stars since the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks who won every game in January and were a mile in front of the rest of the East, leading to Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver getting spots based off team success. This Boston team has been great, but unless they put real daylight between themselves and the Sixers and Bucks, it’s really hard to see them getting four All-Stars even with White having a terrific season.
EAST FRONTCOURT
In: Joel Embiid*, Giannis Antetokounmpo*, Jayson Tatum*, Jaylen Brown, Paolo Banchero, Bam Adebayo, Scottie Barnes
The starters for East froncourt are pretty easy to come up with. Embiid, Giannis, and Tatum all have MVP cases for the three best teams in the conference and should cruise to starting spots. From there, though, it gets pretty tricky. Brown feels like a lock given the Celtics’ success. I also think the Magic are going to get an All-Star this year and right now Paolo feels like he’ll get the nod over Franz Wagner, but I think those two are effectively battling it out for the Orlando spot over the next month (provided they’re still solidly in the top-6 in the East). From there it gets tricky. Miami’s been on a hot streak of late so, at this moment, I think they’ll get someone in the game. That puts it between Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, and as long as Adebayo doesn’t miss any more time I think he would get the nod over Butler. For one, Butler has historically not cared in the slightest about playing in the All-Star Game, so I think he’d be fine with it. Beyond that, Adebayo has a better statistical profile to go along with his reputation as one of the best defenders in the league. From there, I feel like Scottie Barnes’ breakout year is likely going to earn him a nod, and he may benefit from being listed as a frontcourt player rather than a guard (where he’s been playing). That said, if the Raptors continue to bottom out, he might not get the votes.
Snubs: Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Franz Wagner, Kristaps Porzingis
Butler hasn’t played that much more than Adebayo (or Porzingis), and he doesn’t have the same statistical impact of Bam this season, meaning I think his teammate is more likely to get the nod. That Randle is back in the mix for an All-Star spot after the first couple weeks he had is impressive, but I think he’ll need the Knicks to go on a serious run in January to have a shot. If they’re still just hanging around .500, I doubt the coaches will feel like they need to give them multiple All-Stars and Brunson will be the pick for New York. Wagner, as mentioned, is neck-and-neck with Banchero for the Magic’s spot that I believe exists as of now. He certainly has a case to even be ahead of the Randle-Porzingis-Butler-Adebayo group, but Orlando probably needed to stay in the top-3 range to have a chance at two All-Stars this year. Porzingis, meanwhile, might split votes with Derrick White for a third Celtics spot with coaches, needs to log more games played, and would need Boston to create some space for the 1-seed over other two All-Star teams in the Bucks and Sixers.
WEST GUARDS
In: Stephen Curry*, Luka Doncic*, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, De’Aaron Fox
Hoo boy, the West guard race is brutal. I think SGA and Doncic deserve the starting spots, but Curry probably gets in over SGA off the fan vote. In any case, those three should be locks, as is Anthony Edwards given the Timberwolves position atop the conference. From there, De’Aaron Fox is averaging 30 per game on crazy efficiency and has the Kings right back in the mix for a top-4 spot in the West. I think he should also be a pretty easy choice for a Wild Card, but that leaves a number of big names off the board.
Snubs: Devin Booker, Desmond Bane, Jamal Murray
After Fox it gets really tricky and comes down to how the Wild Card picks get sorted out. Devin Booker’s had an unbelievably productive year but the Suns have been mediocre and he’d need a Wild Card pick over a frontcourt guy. Right now I don’t know if he’ll get that, and it would help him out a lot if the Suns could go on a sustained run of success and pull back with the Clippers. The Grizzlies slow start will likely keep Bane off the roster, barring a crazy month of January in Memphis (which, again, he’d have to vault Booker to get in the mix for a Wild Card). The Nuggets being simply “very good” instead of dominant means it’s going to be hard for Murray to get the All-Star spot I thought he was likely going to get off of his Finals run a year ago. He’s only played 20 games this year and is averaging under 20 points per game, making it very difficult to put him in above any of the other top guards in the West (not to mention frontcourt guys).
WEST FRONTCOURT
In: LeBron James*, Nikola Jokic*, Kevin Durant*, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
Like in the East, the frontcourt starters aren’t hard to figure out in the West. LeBron and KD are always at the top of fan voting and are assuredly going to be in the top 5 for players and media too, meaning they’re in. Nikola Jokic is once again putting up preposterous numbers on a top-3 team and is maybe the MVP favorite again. He’s in. From there, the Wolves are going to get two guys and Towns will get the nod over Gobert. Davis, Leonard, and George have all not only played to their usual All-Star standard, but have all played more games than usual (Kawhi’s missed a little time recently with a hip issue but is back now). The Lakers getting two All-Stars will, assuredly, lead to some thinkpieces, but it’s really hard to see how Davis misses out if he’s still healthy given his statistical profile and having played 32 games already. The Clippers have been on a tear of late and George and Leonard have both been spectacular this year. If they keep winning at this rate, it’s hard to see those guys missing out given their pedigree and the team having this level of success — but if they slip up and the Suns get going, Booker likely takes that last spot.
Snubs: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Alperen Sengun, Rudy Gobert, Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama, Domantas Sabonis
The Pelicans have been good enough to get someone in the game, but Ingram and Zion might split some votes (I do think Ingram would get more from coaches than Zion for a variety of reasons) and it’s just really, really crowded right now. Sengun has been spectacular for the Rockets but at .500 I’m not sure the team is good enough for him to get in with a similar stat line to Karl-Anthony Towns (with worse efficiency). Gobert has been great defensively for Minnesota, but I think the field is too deep this year for them to get three guys in and Towns is the more likely pick of the Minnesota bigs. I think Holmgren will get real consideration given the Thunder’s team success and how vital he’s been to it, but I’m not sure who he goes in over and rookies tend to not be high on coaches lists. Wembanyama would get in if fans just picked all 12 spots, but he’ll likely have to wait another year before making his All-Star debut. I realize now that I snubbed Domantas Sabonis from the snubs list initially (apologies, Kings fans), but he also has a strong case with averages of just over 19/12/7 right now. Like so many others, I think he gets left off as they spread roster spots elsewhere with Fox getting in as the Kings representative.
It will not be a particularly fun year for the coaches to fill out All-Star ballots, as there are far too many players with legitimate All-Star cases for the number of roster spots that need to be filled. Last year there were a number of injury replacements that made their way onto the roster, so it’s possible we get a few of those as well (but would obviously prefer to have too many healthy stars to seeing big names go down).
With the league tweaking the All-Star format again this year, maybe they will look at expanding rosters in the near future, as it certainly feels like we don’t have enough spots for the talent level across the league at the moment. There are so many established stars still producing at an All-Star level that it’s hard to make room for the rising superstars in the league, and I think it would benefit the NBA to make a little more space to have them playing alongside each other in the annual February showcase.
In the meantime, we’re going to have plenty of snub talk over the next month-plus, and there will be some free motivation for some big names coming out of the voting process.
