Buy Low:
Aaron Brooks remains glued to the bench and has consequently seen his production stagger since his triumphant surprise 24-point return from an ankle injury on Jan. 10. He’ll make his way back into the starting lineup – it’s just a matter of when. This recommendation is simply based on an expectation of more minutes in more consistent doses in what will likely be a return to a starting gig.
Stephen Jackson has really dropped off since Gerald Wallace returned to the Bobcats earlier this month. He’s shooting 32 percent from the field since Wallace returned to the lineup on Jan. 10. The good news is that Jackson continues to play heavy minutes on a team that’s playing at a faster pace than it was earlier this season. Add to this the possibility that the Bobcats will make a deal that will open things up for the likes of Jackson and Tyrus Thomas and there’s a good shot that this streaky shooter will eventually claw his way back to fantasy strength.
Roy Hibbert‘s name on this list will elicit scoffs – and rightfully so. The dude’s been downright horrible lately and he’s currently battling a bout with the flu. So a buy-low recommendation for Hibbert is more of an “Aw, what the hell” suggestion for owners who are either really far ahead or far behind their opponents and have little to lose with a cheap gamble on Hibbert. At worst, if he doesn’t bust out of his funk, he’ll be a decent rebounder and a good shot-blocker to stash on your bench (despite playing just 20:48 per game in January, he’s still averaging 7.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks). At best, he’ll take this time off with the flu to clear his mind and make a furious second-half comeback to prominence. The truth will likely be somewhere in between, which means that giving up a frustrating end-of-the-bench player (e.g., O.J. Mayo) for Hibbert is a decent transaction to make.
David Lee continues to make slow progress from his disgusting elbow injury. His numbers so far in January aren’t all that great, but they’re not bad – 16.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and one steal, along with 55.1 percent from the field and 83.9 percent from the line. In his last three games, Lee is averaging a healthy 21.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists. His shooting touch is much improved, which likely indicates that his elbow is feeling better. Expect him to continue on his uphill battle, and if he can keep those assists steady, Lee will have an easy time reverting to the fantasy beast we once knew and loved.
Hedo Turkoglu has looked a bit off lately, but don’t let that fool you. He’s still playing plenty of minutes (35:23 per game so far in January) and is putting up solid all-around numbers (10.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.7 steals and one three this month). He’s struggling from the free-throw line (55.2 percent so far in 2011), but that’s a short-term aberration. Turkoglu will be just fine the rest of the way and can be had at a discount nowadays.
Joakim Noah, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer and any other productive fantasy players who are injured should be considered buy-low candidates.
Sell High:
Corey Maggette has averaged 20.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists in his last three games. However, it’s worth noting that his most recent outing was without the injured John Salmons. It’s also worth noting that Maggette has never been known as the healthiest of players. The cherry on top of this mound of negativity is that he doesn’t hit many threes or steal many balls, which really limits his actual value. He’s hit the 20-point mark four times this month, but savvy owners know that he’s still not worth all that much. Dump him while he’s hot.
John Wall is averaging a healthy 13.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 11.1 assists and 1.4 steals in his nine games in January. The bad news is that his knee is still not 100 percent healthy. He recently said he still feels pain, which is bad news. Wall appears to be susceptible to DNPs down the stretch of the season, and we haven’t even touched on the possibility of a rookie wall (pun intended).
Tim Duncan has put up top-40 averages so far this season, but the reason to sell high is simple: the looming threat of limited minutes and even DNPs during the second half of the season. This hazard is even more pronounced when you consider that the Spurs hold the best record – not only in the Western Conference, but in the NBA – at 36-6, which gives them a six-game cushion ahead of the second-place Lakers.
Danny Granger has scored 32 points in back-to-back games and is averaging his best monthly numbers since his three games in October. But we know the beast that haunts Granger’s fantasy value, and her name is DNP. Also, Granger is shooting 46.7 percent from the field in January, way higher than his 42.8 percent field-goal percentage for the season. In all likelihood, his hot shooting this month is unsustainable.
Grant Hill deserves some massive props for the season he’s turning in so far. The 38-year-old veteran is shooting better percentages and scoring more points than he did last season, and is currently on a major hot streak, averaging 24.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists in his last three games. Nevertheless, the chances of Hill continuing this kind of play for much longer are as good as Vince Carter‘s shot at getting a standing ovation in Toronto. Hill will be solid so long as he’s on the court, but his stock isn’t going to get higher than it is right now.
Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.
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