Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Week 5

11.26.10 8 years ago 16 Comments

Buy Low:
Dwyane Wade has been a nightmare (in the bad way) lately. He’s banged up and his numbers have been downright ugly during the past week or so. That said, when the Heat find a groove and once Wade heals up a bit, he should find his way back into top-15 status. He’s the definition of a buy-low player this week.

Gerald Wallace has struggled with inconsistency so far this season and is scoring, rebounding and thieving less than he was last season. Nevertheless, he continues to play 38+ minutes a night and won’t have many weeks worse than the one he just had, when he averaged a pedestrian 12/7/3 with just a steal and less than a block per game, along with 3.8 turnovers.

Andrei Kirilenko hit a low point on Wednesday with a 0/3/1 line. That followed an underwhelming 10/4 game. He’ll struggle with inconsistency this season but his value won’t get much lower than this. Kirilenko is still a borderline 1/1/1 guy, so if you’ve been eyeing him this season, consider this your AK-47 Black Friday.

O.J. Mayo has been awful this season, especially in his last three games. His poor play has pushed him to the bench in his last two games and there seems to be very little going for him. Mayo was on this list last week, but his value has dropped even lower since then, which means he can probably be had for very cheap right now. If you can afford to stash him on your bench and hope that he finds his way soon, go for it.

Roy Hibbert has averaged 7.5 points, 6 rebounds, one assist, one block and 1.5 turnovers in his last two games. In the first game he struggled with foul trouble and played only 21:32. In his second game, he left an easy blowout victory early because he got hit in the head. So, yes, this past week has been a fluke and this might be the best chance owners will have to buy low on the stud this season.

Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Chris Kaman and any other productive fantasy players who are injured should be considered buy-low candidates.

Sell High:
Darko Milicic has been playing out of his mind lately and has put up top-10 numbers during the last week. He looks to have anchored himself in that starting lineup and will be worth owning the rest of the way, but his value is being pushed up against his ceiling, which means there’s a very good chance of a drop-off in value sooner than later. His owners should at least see what they can fetch for him on the market after his career week.

Joakim Noah continues to play at a brilliant level this season, but Boozer’s return is at hand. Noah will still be a fine fantasy player, but his shots (at a career-high 10.7 per game) and rebounds (also at a career-high 13.4) are certainly going to be dented once that starting lineup is at full strength.

Lamar Odom‘s story is similar to Noah’s: the return of a teammate is set to weigh down his value. In Odom’s case, that teammate is Andrew Bynum, who is less than two weeks away from his scheduled return. It’s scientifically proven that Odom’s production takes a significant hit when Bynum is in that Lakers lineup, so his owners should follow that line of logic and sell high as soon as possible.

Kevin Martin is doing his thing in Houston, scoring and hitting threes with ease. This sell-high recommendation isn’t so much based on Aaron Brooks‘ pending return as it is on K-Mart’s fragile health. The fact is Martin hasn’t played in more than 61 games since 2006-07. In each of his past three seasons, Martin has played 61 games, 51 games and 46 games, respectively. Clearly, his next string of DNPs is looming right around the corner.

Kris Humphries has been a fantastic addition to many fantasy rosters this season. He gives you what you want from a big man and has won the favor of coach Avery Johnson. However, Troy Murphy seems very close to returning to the Nets’ lineup, and despite coach Johnson’s foreboding words that there might not be many minutes for Murphy, fantasy owners have to expect that Humphries is in for fewer minutes once Murphy returns. That power forward position will be crowded with Humphries, Murphy and Derrick Favors all vying for playing time, so Humphries’ owners would do well to see what he’s worth in the market today.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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