The Houston Rockets are, until someone else snatches this title away, the team with the best chance of knocking off the Golden State Warriors. Houston came awfully close to getting the job done this past postseason before Chris Paul was betrayed by his hamstring, and now, all eyes are on whether the Rockets can keep their backcourt healthy and topple the two-time defending champions in a seven-game series.
If there is a concern, it’s that Houston’s roster last year was built with the goal of making life hell on the perimeter for Golden State, namely because it had a pair of versatile wings in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute who could switch defensively when the Warriors wanted to try and shred them on the perimeter. Now, both guys are gone, and their perceived replacements are James Ennis (not much of a shooter) and Carmelo Anthony (not the most fleet of foot defender). Michael Carter-Williams is also in town now, but in addition to his well-documented woes as a shooter, he’s never been known as a wing defender despite standing at 6’6.
On the most recent edition of The Lowe Post podcast, Zach Lowe of ESPN and Chris Herring of FiveThirtyEight discussed this issue. Here’s what Lowe had to say about what is currently in town.
They’re trying to beat one team, and Ariza and [P.J.] Tucker and Mbah a Moute gave them the grit and the switchability to have a shot at defending that team. Now you’ve only got to defend them well enough to win four games, and your offense is so good that you only maybe have to defend them actually well, by the numbers, twice. They almost did it, it almost happened, and they’ve lost a lot of that identity in those guys going out the door. Ennis’ ability to duplicate it is TBD, Melo cannot do what they did — you cannot say “Melo, switch from Klay to KD to Steph,” no, it’s not gonna happen. You’ll be dead, he will get ankles, his ankles, what is left of them broken.
This means Houston — which is as active of a team as the league has when it comes to tweaking its roster — might be interested in kicking the tires on a number of potential options. What might be the best options, and what would it look like if the Rockets called up every team and tried to work out a deal for someone? We dove into the options, and surprisingly, it might be hard for Daryl Morey to bolster his rotation without some savvy maneuvering.
The moves Lowe mentioned: Kent Bazemore (Atlanta), Tyler Johnson (Miami), J.R. Smith (Cleveland)
The trade mentioned for the first two players would be something like Ryan Anderson and a first-round pick in exchange for whomever was referenced above. The logic is that the money basically lines up, with Anderson (about $20.5 million a year for two years) making a little more than both Bazemore (about $18.5 million for two years*) and Johnson ($19.2 million for both years). Tacking on what would almost certainly be a late first-round pick would be an attempt to compensate for the financial difference.
(* — It should be noted that Bazemore has a player option for 2019-20, which is set to pay him a hair under $19.3 million. He could always opt out, but, uh, that’s a lot of money.)
Neither Bazemore nor Johnson are perfect, but they would give Houston the ability to switch on the perimeter defensively and could hit some threes. However, neither have a ton of postseason experience against the Warriors, which is what makes Smith so intriguing.
Smith has spent the last few years battling — to varying degrees of success — against the Warriors with a championship on the line. He’s a perfectly fine perimeter defender when he’s engaged, and offensively, Smith would surely love the green light he’d get to rise and fire from Mike D’Antoni.
The issue might be financially, as Cleveland would be certifiably insane to do a deal that involves flipping Smith for Anderson. Smith will make $14.7 million this year, and while he is in line to make about $15.7 next year, only $3.9 million of that is guaranteed. Taking back Anderson’s hefty contract would be an absolutely terrible move, especially if the only thing the Cavs get back is one late first-round pick.
Perhaps Cleveland would look to get out from another one of its more unsavory contracts — per ESPN’s Trade Machine, Smith and Jordan Clarkson for Anderson and cap filler (in this instance, one year of Zhou Qi) works, as does a gigantic but fun Smith/Tristan Thompson for Anderson/Nene/filler deal — or maybe the Cavs would look to get a third team involved. Who knows, it’s all a hypothetical, plus the Trade Machine has not been updated since word came out of David Nwaba’s impending deal in Cleveland, so this might have to be updated in the very near future.
With all of those out of the way, let’s see what the rest of the league has to offer, with the caveat that the Rockets will probably just find some free agents/G Leaguers off the scrap heap and turn them into 41 percent shooters from three with absolutely stellar perimeter defense.
Boston — There’s not much here, unless the Celtics would be willing to part with Semi Ojeleye or, say, Marcus Morris. But at this point, it’s kind of hard to see or rationalize Boston making any major moves.
Brooklyn — A weird trade that could work would be Jared Dudley and DeMarre Carroll for Anderson and a pick or two. It might depend on whether the Nets want to take up cap space prior to the free agent bonanza of 2019, but if they don’t mind and want to continue acquiring future picks, it’s an idea that could work well for Houston to get a pair of veterans with defensive presence on the wing.
Charlotte — Anderson for Nic Batum works straight up. Would the Rockets take on a worse contract than Anderson, even if Batum, when healthy, could be the exact type of player they’re looking for?
Chicago — The Bulls don’t have any rough contracts that they can move right now, and unless Houston would want to take a flier on someone like Denzel Valentine, it’s hard to identify who they’d be interested in.
Dallas — Anderson and a pick for Wesley Matthews would make way more sense if Matthews wasn’t an unrestricted free agent after this season. Maybe Houston sweetens the pot with some more picks and, perhaps, someone like 2018 draft pick De’Anthony Melton? Maybe the Mavs say no to that, anyway?
Denver — He’s not much of a shooter nowadays, but Richard Jefferson as another body to throw at Golden State could be fun if he wants to give it another go this season. He’s also no longer on the Nuggets, and they don’t really have anything that fits what Houston needs.
Detroit — Finally, a non-Anderson deal. Houston trying to get Reggie Bullock — who makes $2.5 million a year and was lights out from three last season — would be fascinating if the Pistons would move him. Could a combination of picks, Melton, and cap filler work? If not, would the Rockets want to try their luck on, say, Stanley Johnson and hope he can hit some open shots?
Golden State — A hot take, but Golden State is not trading anyone to the Rockets as Houston tries to find a way to beat the Warriors. NEXT.
Indiana — Another team that doesn’t exactly have 3-and-D guys that might be worth pursuing.
Los Angeles Clippers — Ditto.
Los Angeles Lakers — [Points to the last two write-ups, promptly moves on]
Memphis — Anderson for Chandler Parsons works financially. If Anderson’s not drawing any interest from anyone else, I mean, why not?
Milwaukee — Unless Milwaukee wants to part ways with Tony Snell — and even then, a whole lot of contract filler would be necessary — there’s not much happening here.
Minnesota — Anderson and a bunch of picks/young players for Andrew Wiggins works. The Timberwolves also would not do that, and also with Wiggins’ contract and his struggles from three, I cannot imagine the Rockets wanting to do that, so forget I ever said this.
New Orleans — They have Nikola Mirotic, so no.
New York — Some people want to watch the world burn. Others wonder if the Rockets would move Anderson, Nene, and Qi for Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah’s contract.
Oklahoma City — Nope.
Orlando — Houston doesn’t have any players who are 6’10+ with a 7’5+ wingspan and a 41 inch vertical, so I can’t imagine the Magic would be interested. Orlando doesn’t have too terribly many 3-and-D wings, so I can’t imagine the Rockets would be interested.
Philadelphia — Not much here for Houston, although reuniting Anderson with current Sixers assistant Monty Williams would be pretty cool.
Phoenix — Getting Troy Daniels, a former Rocket in his own right, for something like Nene and Zhou Qi could be savvy. Morey is savvy, so who knows?
Portland — The last thing the Blazers need is another big, multi-year contract, so let’s move on.
Sacramento — It doesn’t make much sense for the Kings to bring Anderson on unless they’re getting a whole lot of other things back. They could send back Iman Shumpert (who isn’t much of a shooter and has major health question marks), but why would the Rockets do that?
San Antonio — Another team without a ton of 3-and-D wings the Rockets could conceivably pursue. Plus why on earth would the Spurs help them?
Toronto — Kind of the same, although if Houston wants to get really silly and just get something back for Anderson, moving him for Serge Ibaka works! (Don’t do this, Toronto.)
Utah — Jae Crowder would be such a great fit for what the Rockets need. Also: Utah is another one of those teams that shouldn’t look to help Houston at all, so take them of the table.
Washington — The Wizards don’t have much to offer here. Otto Porter? Washington ain’t moving him. Marcus Morris and Kelly Oubre? Ditto. Unlike Nic Cage in National Treasure, there’s no big discovery for Morey and the Rockets to make in Washington. (I’m so sorry.)
The basic gist of all of this is to say, there aren’t an awful lot of obvious moves for the Rockets to make to upgrade their roster on the trade market, chiefly because they’re hamstrung by needing to move Anderson’s contract. It’s hard to imagine another major move coming out of Houston once Carmelo Anthony signs, and they’ll likely need to dig into the bargain bin of remaining free agents or in smaller trades to make anything happen.
