Back in 2021, the Milwaukee Bucks finally ascended to the NBA’s mountaintop. It came on the heels of a Giannis Antetokounmpo openly floating his desire to look around due to his desire to win a championship and a major swing by the front office to bring a big-time guard — in this case, Jrue Holiday — to Milwaukee.
If that playbook sounds familiar, well, that’s because the team did that exact same thing this offseason. Antetokounmpo said on multiple occasions that he won’t remain a Buck if the team doesn’t match his desire to compete. Not long after, the front office swung for the fences, pulling off a monster deal to bring Damian Lillard to the Eastern Conference for the first time in his career. There’s a lot of basketball that needs to be played, but if all goes right, this season will end the same way as their 2021 campaign, and Milwaukee will get to call themselves champions once again.
Biggest Question: Is Upgrading Their Offense With Damian Lillard Worth Downgrading Their Defense?
Milwaukee having to part ways with Holiday was not easy. As a player and as a person, Holiday was a beloved member of the organization, the sort of guy that you root for even if you have no stake in the Bucks. Watching him go to the team’s biggest rival in the Eastern Conference following a pit stop in Portland had to have been a gut punch.
And yet, it’s not hard to see why Milwaukee’s front office made the decision to turn Holiday (along with Grayson Allen and Draft capital) into Lillard. An issue for the Bucks is that their offense is prone to getting stuck in the mud, particularly when the game slows down and they have to play in the halfcourt. This comes with the caveat that Antetokounmpo was clearly not right as he played through injuries and essentially missed the first three games, but the Bucks’ offense in their first-round loss to the Miami Heat in the playoffs was brutal. Small sample sizes and what not, but in four losses, Milwaukee had an offensive rating of 109.4 with an effective field goal percentage of 53.2 percent. Their true shooting percentage came in at 55.9 percent. While a wonderful player, Holiday’s had some postseason warts over the last few years, namely when it comes to efficiency from the field (38.4 percent on field goals, 30.6 percent from three over 17 playoff games in the last two years).
Offenses do not stall out when Lillard is running the show, and the thought of a two-man game with himself and Antetokounmpo is legitimately one of the most exciting things in the league. The bet that the Bucks made was that all of this is that the gains they’ll make on that end of the floor will offset what losing Holiday — perhaps the most versatile defensive guard in the league — means on the other. While we don’t know what new head coach Adrian Griffin will want his defense to look like, it’s worth mentioning that Milwaukee’s defense in recent years has featured elite rim protection, and with Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez returning, that should remain.
X-Factor: Khris Middleton
Is it just me, or has everyone kind of just forgotten how good Middleton is at his best this offseason? There were glimpses where he looked like the multi-time All-Star last season, you just needed to squint sometimes as he was working his way back from surgery to repair a torn ligament in his wrist. He was hot and cold against Miami in the playoffs, but his good games looked great. His efficiency as a shooter took a step down, but his per-36 numbers looked an awful lot like what you generally expect out of him — from 2019-22, Middleton had per-36 averages of 23 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.2 steals. Last season, he was at 22.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and one steal.
Between him being in a good place physically and his long-term future being settled, it’s not hard to foresee Middleton having a big bounceback season. His ability as a secondary playmaker should fit great next to Lillard, and after an awful season on catch-and-shoot threes (he only connected on a legitimately jarring 29.5 percent), don’t be surprised if he’s immediately the best third option in the league. How he holds up defensively — he might have to take on the opposing team’s best perimeter player with some frequency — is a real question.
