It’s a Wednesday night which means tons of games coming your way from the National Basketball Association. There are 11 games on this fine evening, headlined by the Lakers seeking out their first win of the season in Phoenix as a mild road favorite, Luka Doncic and Trae Young meeting in Atlanta, Minnesota heading to Toronto to face the red-hot Raptors, the Jazz visiting Houston, and Philadelphia taking on Milwaukee.
We’ll take a look at trends for each game, but first just a general note that Overs are an absurd 33-18 to start the season in the NBA. Below that you’ll find our staff’s picks for all of those games, with Chris Barnewall taking the lead in our season-long rankings at a game over .500 picking against the spread, while I remain in a distant last place 17 games under .500, which seems unfathomable. I hope at this point you are just fading me blindly, because you’d be up a significant amount of money.
Brooklyn Nets (+3) at Cleveland Cavaliers, O/U 226.5
The Cavs are 2-1 ATS this season, but 0-1 as a favorite, as they got blasted at home by the Hawks in their last game. The Nets are 1-1 as a road dog, covering in Detroit to open the season, but getting blown out in Indiana on Saturday.
That game against the Pacers was the first time Brooklyn has gone Over this season in three games, while the Cavs have seen the Over hit in all three of their games so fra.
Dallas Mavericks (-2) at Atlanta Hawks, O/U 236.5
The Mavs started the season with a bad loss in Phoenix, but back-to-back home wins and covers have them back on track as they head to Atlanta. It’s the Hawks first time at home, opening up the newly renovated State Farm Arena with a 1-2 record on the court and against the spread.
The two teams are a combined 5-1 on Overs this season, with Dallas having the lone performance that’s come in Under. No one is predicting defense in this one, hence the 236.5 point total.
New York Knicks (+8) at Miami Heat, O/U 219
The Knicks have been feisty so far this season, as they are 3-0-1 against the spread on the year. Miami is 1-2 against the spread and lost outright to Charlotte in their one game as a home favorite.
The Knicks are 2-2 on totals while the Heat are 2-1 on Overs this season, with the Heat going over in their one home game against Charlotte.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+8) at Toronto Raptors, O/U 229
The Raptors have dominated to open the season, with a 3-1 record against the spread (2-1 as a home favorite with the one loss being a backdoor by Cleveland). The Wolves, meanwhile, have gone 0-2 as a road underdog against the spread.
The two teams are a combined 7-1 on Overs this season, and Minnesota’s defense has been much worse on the road, although their worst effort was without Jimmy butler.
Charlotte Hornets (-4.5) at Chicago Bulls, O/U 231
The Hornets are 3-1 ATS, with their lone failure to cover coming in their last game in Toronto. The Bulls are 1-2 ATS, but were one free throw away from a cover in their loss to the Mavericks.
The Bulls have gone over in two of three games, and their defense is atrocious, hence the 231 point total here. The Hornets are 3-1 on Overs and Kemba Walker figures to have another monster night with Kris Dunn now out for the next month.
Utah Jazz (+1) at Houston Rockets, O/U 217.5
The Jazz are 1-2 against the spread this year and are coming off a hideous performance against the Grizzlies at home. The Rockets are also 1-2 against the spread, coming off a road loss to the Clippers. Their one game as a home favorite saw them get smoked in the opener by Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.
Houston’s gone over in all three of their games, as their team defense has regressed, while the Jazz are 2-1 on Overs, as they’re yet to be the dominant defensive force most anticipated them to be at the start of the season. Still, it’s clear Vegas expects Utah to rebound a bit on that end with where this total is.
Indiana Pacers (+2) at San Antonio Spurs, O/U 210
The Spurs are 2-1 against the spread, including a win and cover in their lone game as a home favorite. The Pacers are 2-2 ATS, but both losses have come as a road underdog.
Easily the lowest total of the night for two teams that play at slower paces compared to the rest of the league. The Spurs are the NBA’s slowest team, yet they are still 3-0 on Overs, while the Pacers are 2-2 on totals this season.
Philadelphia 76ers (+6) at Milwaukee Bucks, O/U 227.5
The Sixers are coming off of a one-point loss in Detroit last night (either a push or an ATS loss depending on your number), but get the boost of Ben Simmons returning to the lineup. Still, after giving up 50 points to Blake Griffin, Giannis Antetokounmpo has to be licking his chops to get after this team on a second game of a back-to-back. Philly is 1-3 on the season ATS, while the Bucks are 1-1-1, with a 1-0-1 record as a home favorite.
The teams are a combined 6-1 on Overs, continuing the trend of just about everyone smashing Overs this season.
Memphis Grizzlies (-3) at Sacramento Kings, O/U 220.5
The Grizzlies are 2-1 ATS, including back-to-back wins on the court after a miserable opener in Indiana. They stunned Utah on the road and now are entering their first game as a road favorite. The Kings are 2-2 ATS, but covered in their lone game as a home dog this season.
The Kings have been rocking Overs this season at a 4-0 clip, including against the Nuggets last night in Denver. The Grizzlies are 2-1 on Unders, but Sacramento’s had the ability of dragging every team they’ve faced into a shootout.
L.A. Lakers (-5) at Phoenix Suns, O/U 238.5
The Lakers are the only team yet to cover in the NBA this season at 0-3, which also happens to be their on-court record. The Suns are 1-2 ATS, but their one cover and lone win of the season was as a home dog.
The Lakers have been smashing Overs by nearly 30 points per game this season, which is why this total is as high as it is. The Suns are 2-1 on Unders, but that is more a product of their last two opponents than them being a stingy defensive squad. This will be a shootout, but can it reach nearly 240 combined?
Washington Wizards (+10) at Golden State Warriors, O/U 236.5
The Wizards are coming off a road win on the floor in overtime at Portland, which kept them from being 0-3 on the year. That was also their first cover of the season as well. The Warriors dominated Phoenix last night to right the ship, finally shooting the ball as we expect them to to move to 1-3 ATS.
Golden State is 3-1 on Unders, while the Wizards have gone Over in all three of their games. This comes down to whether you think the Wizards will score enough to keep up with Golden State to go Over a very high total.
Dime Consensus Picks:
Brooklyn (+3)
Dallas (-2)
New York (+8)
Toronto (-8)
Charlotte (-5)
Milwaukee (-6.5)
Lakers (-5)
Memphis (-3)
Golden State (-10)
